Just looked up stats. Derrick Lewis vs. Volkov 39 of 70 overall (55%), 79% to the head. Pavlovich vs. Volkov 46 of 134 overall (34%), 82% to the head.

So Pavlovich was actually significantly more active than Lewis, especially considering that almost half of Lewis successful offensive output came from that one sequence where Volkov took him down, Lewis reversed and hammered away.

I thought if Pavlovich had trouble on the feet, he would try to take him down. Volkov has zero TD defense, Blaydes scored 14 against him and after that the UFC didn't match him up with anyone who has ground game except for Aspinall. The latter fight had the expected outcome, too. Turns out I was just clueless and the UFC again matched Volkov with a one dimensional striker.

If Aspinall wins, could see Volkov getting title shot next, who else is there even? (assuming obviously Jones is never fighting anyone but Stipe)

maybe Gane can get back in the picture but they might wanna give Aspinall a few wins and try to build him up

Gane was offered the title fight in Manchester but is busy shooting a Netflix movie. They haven't announced a a main event for Paris on 09/28 but if Gane is available that would be the obvious choice, against whoever.

Unless he loses that one he should still be the #1 option even if he doesn't fight until his title shot. Volkov already lost to Aspinall and I have a hard time seeing how that next fight might look different. The second Aspinall feels like Volkov could be a danger on the feet he's just going to take him down.

Why would Payton Talbott be -2000 this Saturday?

Have you ever heard the name of his opponent? I had to google him. He's 0-1 in the UFC and ranked at #131 (in a different weight class) by Tapology. I've never heard a single name on his record.

Talbott was supposed to get a step up in competition, rumors had guys like Pedro Munhoz or Cody Staman. Instead he's getting another Bo Nickal fight.

Well I had never heard of Talbott before either.

Shara Magomedov was only -550 on Saturday against Antonio Trocoli who was fighting on short notice and making his UFC debut.

Beat Tracy Cortez brother on the Contenders series last year. Might be the biggest hype train at 135 right now.

There's obviously a huge risk with him that other fighters don't have to worry about.

Tsarukyan suspension seems like it could help justify Islam/Edwards if edwards beats belal

I've read the "Islam at an unannounced UFC 307 in late September or early October" rumors but have no idea how that makes any sense unless they want to have Khamzat headline Abu Dhabi in late October or Pareira vs. Ankalaev even though that one could easily headline a US card (or co-headline NYC if Jones - Stipe happens there)?

I guess if they really feel like they need another card in between Sphere in mid September and Abu Dhabi on 10/28 but other than that the logical thing to do is Islam vs. whoever in Abu Dhabi.

Tsarukyan suspension ends in mid October if he watches an anti bullying video or whatever it is but if they fight in Abu Dhabi that doesn't matter anyway.

Also hard to see how Leon fights Islam two months after Belal? FWIW, he's the longest tenured champion right now.

Abu Dhabi wouldn't respect NSAC decision? Also seems like Tsarukyan would probably not want to piss them off by circumventing their ruling

Why would Abu Dhabi care about the Nevada Athletic Commission?

The UFC once moved an event from Vegas to LA on a weeks notice after Jon Jones peed hot and wasn't cleared to fight in Nevada. Just last weekend Dana White said they're probably going to keep Shara Magomedov "out here" (meaning the middle East) because he probably wouldn't be licensed to fight in Nevada. That's not even a MMA thing. Mike Tyson vs. Lennox Lewis was originally scheduled for Vegas and moved to Memphis because Nevada and multiple other states denied him a license. I also highly doubt Nevada would sanction the Tyson - Paul fight.

But again, if UFC 307 really is happening in Salt Lake City, it has to be October 5th. People claim it might be September 28th but they have a card in Paris on that date. If he fulfills the requirements, the suspension is over on 10/13. I highly doubt they wouldn't be willing to shave another week off if that needs to happen.

Anyone else like Jiri tonight?

oh that's why lol

Not sure if it's the 50 mile bike ride in 90 degree temps or the beer during/after the Germany game but I really enjoyed the Swanson - Fili fight. Even though from a technical perspective that was pretty low level.

Thought Swanson won R3 and therefore the fight though.

Ige replacing Ortega in the co-main. I didn't hear the whole story, but almost sounded like they were aware of the possibility earlier in the day.

Ortega apparently woke up with a fever.

Ige lives in Vegas and said he doesn't have anything else to do tonight so he's in. 165lbs though. Looks like Ige weighted in while the prelims were already underway.

Ortega has 103 degree fever and Ige found out at 730 est

has that ever happened before? i cant recall

a fight being cancelled once the card has started and then 1 of the fighters still fighting someone else off the couch that wasnt on the card?

Prolly happened back in the day but prolly not in modern ufc history .

Was hoping Garry would KO or sub MVP fast and maybe get a fight with Colby, doubt it now though

Colby is ducking everyone is seems . Also that fight would be the two most hated guys against each other .

First time in UFC history.

Even same day replacements with somebody else on the card is very rare. One very famous instance for that was the EliteXC card where they replaced the Kimbo Slice opponent a couple hours before the fight. That guy knocked Kimbo out in 13secs which led to EliteXC folding. Also resulted in a pretty famous Dana White interview, pre-HGH with a regular sized head.

Colby has no interest in that fight. Or had no interest until today before Garry looked pretty bad on the feet. Now I could see that actually happening.

Main card underwhelming so far. 2 chances to turn it around.

Crowd has no energy.