Sadly, Boston

Yeah I mean the cubs have the highest ceiling currently of anyone in the NL and are odds on favorites to get to the World Series. Kansas City has shown how important it is to have lockdown relievers for the 7th/8th 9th. If they can keep/move rondon to 8th and have Chapman pitching 9th it ups their postseason win expectancy by more than 1%.

Obviously their starters have to pitch well, but with arrieta/lester lackey leading a playoff rotation that's going to be a solid pitching staff to deal with.

I do agree with Gary though that swinging for the fences on a guy with his character concerns is not ideal, but I really doubt in ten years anyone will care anyway.

and honestly maddon is probably the only manager smart enough to consider using chapman for a high leverage situation in the playoffs(not just the 9th), so it could be even more valuable.

I think broader fluidity would benefit bullpens greatly, but it hasn't been baked in thus far. Look at guys like Drew Storen in 2015 and David Phelps this year and we see some evidence of relievers reacting badly to a change in routine/responsibility, so I can't help wonder if you're risking Rondon's confidence by moving him out of the closer role. I'd also think that Aroldis' stuff is good enough to cover for a hiccup if he suffers the same effect.

nah, LaRussa will prob trade him for a package headlined by some 24 year old raking in A ball, whom he declares a top 10 prospect in baseball while 29 other organisations think of him as non prospect

They only gave up neil walker who was signed at 1year/10m (so barely a positive asset). Was a pretty fair trade, just didnt work out

I was fairly confident that Larry Dierker had died. I was led to his wiki via Blue Moon Odom's. It's strange to learn a man who you assumed died a decade+ ago is alive. Somehow I feel no relief.

Ya soler is hot garbage

What happened to the you win 1 world series and forget about all the other years mentality of this thread just a few pages ago?

This is such an enormous logical fallacy with baseball fans

The barves won the east close to 20 straight times and only got 1 ring out of it. The a's had the best team in baseball for 5 years and didn't get past the ALDS. Barry bonds doesn't have a WS ring

The variance in baseball playoffs is so obscene that not going for 1 because you're good enough to have a shot in the next 5 is illogical, especially considering they don't have a good shot in the next 5

It's unlikely they keep arrieta, Lester will be off a cliff soon, lackey will be gone soon, and the rest of the NL will get better around them

The Dodgers have all the money in the world and a disgustingly sick farm system, plus their ace is one of the greatest pitchers in history in his prime. Can't leave anything to chance if you can afford not to

the variance is so obscene...

APPROPRIATE MEME .JPG

better put all your eggs into this year's basket

This isn't all the eggs though

The Yankees obv crush this trade if it happens but the Cubs never get a better chance than this and they don't bankrupt their farm to pull it off

ok, "more eggs"

Better put some eggs into this year's basket is the appropriate tag line I think

they've already got eggs tho

Gotta evolve that **** man

Say, into a chapmon

This thinking is 100% backwards. The variance in MLB playoffs is exactly why the optimal strategy for maximizing WS equity is to make the playoffs as many years as possible and let probability do the rest, not necessarily be the best team in any one year. I would think a Giants fan would appreciate that as much as anyone. The fact that you can point to examples of teams that ran bad with that approach is silly because I could just as easily point to superteams like the 2001 M's who didn't win **** despite being easily the best team that year, or teams like the 2014 A's who traded away their future to go all-in for one year and still didn't come close. I'd take the Barves' decade straight of winning their division plus a championship in a heartbeat.

That mentality is dumb and it certainly wasn't me who suggested it. To the extent that you do everything possible to win just 1 World Series, it's by summing the probabilities of winning over many years, not by sacrificing all future equity to slightly increase you odds in one particular year.

yes everyone would be happy if you can "win one world series" and forget about the other years. but obviously in the real world there is no trade that lets you "win one world series", only trades that increase your chances by few percentage points generally at the expense of some percentage points in future years.

That's why the nats sitting assburg was so lol

Chapman signed an extension, right? So, it's not just a rental.


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I agree with you completely. But for those who argue to the contrary would a Cubs fan hypothetically take a World Series this year if it means they don't win again for at least 20 years? The Cubs are the extreme example so maybe they would given they haven't won in forever, but I would never mortgage their greatest generation in years which have the potential to win for the next several years and also happen to be very fun to watch.

That's baseball Suzyn

The most illogical and inexcusable things I've ever seen in sports. Hope the Nats never win anything because of that