Rubio is at 18.5 usg, but that's not really material.

easier way to look at is Lin is using about 10 more possessions/36 (a touch over 10 actually, but close enough) including 2 more TO/36, but yeah, comes out to the around the same thing is that it's a net 1.5ish TO gain if we assume someone would have to take the additional usage. Regardless, that's about 2ppg that Lin is costing the Knicks more than Rubio is costing the Wolves looking strictly at TOs, and while that's certainly less than the value of his high usage 60TS scoring, it's also not nothing.

If he keeps scoring at this shooting efficiency, it's not big deal. If you consider his TOs to be equal to just over a FGA to account for the lack of OReb chances, he's still roughly equivalent to .530, which is still above league average (.522 or so this year) which is more than respectable given his usage and the other things he's bringing in terms of playmaking and steals. On the other hand if his shooting drops off in terms of %, then his TO rate becomes a big problem.

like i said, lin, marginally, causes only about .7to/36min than rubio, given the rather generous assumption rest of the team only turns over at about 11%

even if Lin's fg% drops to like 40% (highly unlikely since like 60% of his shots are in the paint and he's not THAT awful of a jump shooter), he'll still outproduce Rubio by a fairly large margin (that gives him just about 20p/36min). Not even counting Lin's higher assist/minute and higher assist% here in the equation.

When melo comes back, I think very large chance both TO/36 and A/36 drop sharply for him.

Also, if his shooting efficiency drops that far, he possibly becomes a net negative as he's entering Monta Ellis territory.

I'd be willing to bet his assist/36 will go up with Melo if I didn't have a self-imposed prop bet ban.

Not if he continues to draw the fouls. He's averaging 8.1 FTA per 36 min, which is No. 3 among players with 200MP+ (Dwight Howard and LBJ are 1 and 2)

And like I said, .400 is very unlikely even if you think he's running hot with jump shots.

Again, it's an unlikely hypothetical, but dropping him to 40% FG, even keeping his FTrate in place puts him at around .490 TS depending on 3s.

The flaw in Lin's game the experts have ignored is that his FT% is below 75%. His college FT% was .733. This is far too low for a top level guard. He needs to shot thousands of free throws daily during the off season. Probably needs to see a free throw coach.

He shot 62.1 sophomore year, 74.4 junior, 75.5 senior, 76 with GSW and 84 before his breakout Nets game. (81.8% freshman year in limited minutes and 44FTA)

Lin also said he spent the offseason working with a shooting coach.

I think it's a good bet the 70.8% he's shooting since breaking out is at least partially due to (severe) fatigue.

Honestly, especially after yesterday (which went a long way to making a believer out of me), my biggest concern with him is the fatigue/burnout thing. Copstache is notorious for riding a short rotation into the ground, and combined with the condensed schedule and the fact that Lin takes a beating given his style of play makes me think he's going to have a breakdown unless they can lighten the load.

Lin needs Nowitzki's coach. How many other 7 footer's are shooting near 90% on FTs?

No argument on that.

We need Melo (to occasionally carry the O on his shoulders) and Baron Davis (to play backup PG) back in a really bad way to get Lin's minutes down to a more manageable 30~35 range.

A/36 dropping sharply with Melo returning is wtf.

Lin in late shot clock situations will have the option to bail out pass to Melo. That's a better assist creating situation than he has currently.

Lin will create plenty of shots (some of them pretty easy looks) for Melo when he returns. As Melo has instructed Lin to stay aggressive when he returns, and they will "play off of each other". There should not be a sharp reduction of assist opportunities playing with Melo.

In the last 9 games Lin has 8.54 A/36 and for the season BRef has him at 8.9 A/36

What exactly is dropping off sharply? 5 A/36? 6 A/36?

Seth, you do know that Lin will remain the primary ball handler when Melo returns right?

Lin = PG
Melo = No longer Point Forward

What if he misses every shot?

Then there's something probably wrong with his hands during the release, don't you agree F60?

Should probably step your troll game up if you want to keep punching above your weight class.

Calm down, I didn't make up the hypothetical.

I'm calm. Just having some fun.

I was 100% serious with my post sir.

I am fan of your work on the forums, as you should know.

Paranoid much?

Oh and iirc, you swung for the fences vs. me (for no reason too), and Missed. Then Slunk.

I seriously do like your posts though. Always have.

Melo has never had a teammate average that many A/36 for a full season (dre miller averaged more during his last quarter season there before the AI trade, but that was also the year melo was suspended for a while for the MSG fight). Dre had one season of 8.2 A/36 and another in the 7s.

Fair enough outside stat to include for perspective analysis.

You didn't answer me though, what exactly is a sharp drop off in A/36 for Lin when Melo returns?

8.54 to what?

High 6s similar to what Chauncey/AI did.

Did Chauncey/AI run a pick n roll based offense in the D'Antoni system though?

Seriously though, I think your application of the historical Melo related stats and resulting conclusion is being too narrow with your approach to projecting Lin's future A/36.

Chauncey averaged 6.3 a/36 for the knicks last year.

Melo playing tonite against the Nets interesting to see how the chemistry is going be. I predict it's not going change much. Melo did play with Lin in Lin's breakout game against the Net and he let Lin handle the ball a lot

Lin runs the Pick n Roll better than Chauncey though. Just Lin and Chandler alone have been filthy together.

Part of the rap last year on Chauncey in a Knicks uniform is that he wasn't really a PnR pg. And thus wasn't truly well suited to be in D'Antoni's System.

Seems like you're just looking for any reason/excuse/outside stat to discount Lin/Lin's future.

Or maybe you're just being Mr. Skeptic or even Devil's advocate.

----

Yep and Melo + Lin bow happened in that game dlam, just check out my avatar!

Yay Melo playing.