Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
I have absolutely no idea and neither do you. That's the knowledge gap between us and BB.
They could have been bad decisions, sure. But my feeling is that BB had good reason that would make sense if he explained it to us. You think you know better than him. That's the disconnect.
I actually dont think BB has any idea what % of the time they convert in that spot, and I dont think he would really have any good explanation of how to figure it out either.
I think he could make an intuitive guess, and in a lot of situations be correct because his intuition is likely very very good. There would even be times when his intuition would be much better than any statistical or reasoning-based approach to decision-making. The problem is, there isnt any way to know WHEN his intuition will be better, and lots of times it wont be. Lots of times it will be DRAMATICALLY off, because his intuition is heavily biased by other factors, such as the power of anecdotal memory, "conventional wisdom," etc.