what schools did they go to

the problem with bringing up proper strat like that irl is that unless someone has read about it (unlikely) or thought about it applying math (less likely) they only know what phil simms has told them the last 10 years. play the percentages

watch parks and rec from last night "tell me how much more taxes I'll have to pay, don't use numbers"

was he an econ undergrad?

Hendrix College (Arkansas), The Ohio State University for the CS guys.
NC State/Florida for the MBA.

I'm not sure I explained it clearly myself, but I had thought I clearly pointed out that just because you miss the first 2 point conversion means you don't necessarily lose automatically, and have a shot for the win in regulation, whereas playing for the tie just gives you a 50/50 shot it OT nominally.

Like I said, my mistake

Just as a response to the argument that "these coaches know their players, they know the flow of the game, what things are working and what things arent, so their decision is better than just some abstract numbers":

If this were true, wouldnt you expect to see them do some bizarre, seemingly random things in like the second quarter of games, like going for 2 randomly, or going for it on a 4th and 11? Basically, if that were true, wouldnt you expect them to make ANY decisions that cant just be simply explained by coaches being pussies and unthinking?

yeah, it's funny that basically every single coach knows that their team is significantly worse than average on 2 point conversions and fourth down conversions.

to me its just incredible that a team like the panthers, jets, 49ers, redskins... or anyone with a strong running QB, isn't going for 2 every single time. like wouldnt somebody say to ron rivera "hey cam newton literally cant be stopped inside the 2 yard line" and anyone with an Iq about 7 would be like "hey you know what youre right"

i dont think people understand exactly HOW ******ed it is to kick an extra point when your odds of converting with a guy like cam or tebow or someone are way way way way higher than the break even point. like 4th and goal from the 2, how often do you expect the panthers to miss??

ron rivera doesnt think cam newton can gain five inches on 4th down when it would win the game, lol at thinking he could be convinced to go for 2

There will. B a coach this decade that does it imO
And they will crush

idk, baseball advanced theory is way ahead of football right now

yet mariano rivera is reserved for only the 9th inning and a .300 obp player bats 1st because he's fast

Not every team tho

I assume based on the scoring structure in the NFL that WP numbers aren't very linear across various lead amounts. There is probably a noticeable jump in average WP across any time swatch in a game from being up by 7 to being up by 8.

Not sure if that makes sense but what I'm trying to say is the 8th point is worth a lot more than coaches realize. Because it's not easy to get 8 points on one drive, and number of drives is relatively finite across the game, so if you can do that and your opponent can't, you are exploiting a huge edge.

Also it is amazing that they won't let CAM go for 4th and inches. Far too often these coaches fall into the "but they are expecting that! We'll never convert! It's too obvious!" mentality when sometimes brute force is all you need. Even if they expect you to sneak CAM..

^ yup i agree with all of that

going up 8-0 or 8-7 is so valuable especially if everyone else is kicking 1. it will lead to so many scenarios where you can go up by 2 possessions when most teams would only be up by one such as 15-6 and 16-7 type games.

it sucks that not even college teams, who are starting to figure out 4th down strategy, are going for 2 nearly as much as they should be.

ARC what do you think of scoring a TD with like 1 second left to make the game 35-34 and then going for 2 every time? depends on your defense, but just for an average team playing another average team? or even for a good defensive team playing a bad offensive team?

also, how about taking a 20-13 BEFORE the PAT late in a game or even early in a game? go for 2?

I think any time a team scores to go up 7 they 100% of the time should go for 2. But they never do. They will always kick the xpt, but I can just imagine what the announcers would be saying.

i agree

so much value to be gained from going up 9 and so little to be gained from going up 8

Rick Pitino plays Peyton Siva

fyp

you. can't. be. serious.

we have been over this so many times itt but it comes down to go for it if you think your offense makes the 2pc at a higher rate than the other team's offense. that's all it is. that's the math of it.

besides that there's the point that going for it and missing will have more negative attention than not going for it and other team does and gets it. so if the ev from a pure football standpoint is 0, then the xp appears to still be the correct call.

yea i agree

but im assuming that the other team is going to play it standard

was grunching so idk the past discussions, but yea, i agree that if you can get the 2 at a higher rate than your opponent its +ev

Wait, why wouldn't it be the opposite? If your opponent is bad at 2pcs, then go for 1 and make them 2pc to tie. If they are very good at 2pcs, then the value of being up 8 instead of 7 is small and you should go for 2 to make it a 2 posession game. For example a team that is 100% on 2pcs, obv up 7 you'd go for two since essentially being up 8=being up7 (late game anyway)

i just dont think its even possible to be "bad" at 2 point conversions

how hard is it and how big of an edge can a team really have?

HappinessPull,
Duke is saying that if you go up 21-13 by kicking the PAT, it's kind of good but it "forces" the other team into a 2-point conversion on either their next drive or shortly thereafter. So it basically forces the other coach into optimal strategy.

If you instead go for 2, then roughly half the time you are up by 9, which is outstanding since it's 2 scores. Other half you are up by 7 which is still totally fine since the other team will 100% kick a PAT if they score to go down by 1.

Getting 9 there half the time is so much more valuable than getting a guaranteed 8 - and the benefit is not negated by failing and only going up 7.

Unless my thought process is totally wrong and it has already been worked out itt then nevermind everything I just typed.

yup thats the neat version of my point