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05-07-2022 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Either that or somebody had sizable win action without playing the exotics. That would explain 80:1 straight odds with 300:1+ implied in the exacta pool.
Yeah, that is what happened.

The expected odds of the winner before the race were 163-1. Maybe a lot of blackjack lovers or hunch players just wanted to bet #21.

80-1 was a huge underlay on that Pig..
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05-07-2022 , 11:30 PM
amazing race - just watching some clips - I see everyone was interested in how RS was acting after the win biting at the guide horse or whatever - and there's robot Tirico ignoring what's happening on screen to drone on about something else
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05-07-2022 , 11:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Ungar
The expected odds of the winner before the race were 163-1.
Source?

Quote:
Maybe a lot of blackjack lovers or hunch players just wanted to bet #21.

80-1 was a huge underlay on that Pig..
Even if the "fair" win odds were 163:1 the overlay on the exacta was jaw dropping to say the least.

If one were to assume a 45 2/5 half and allowing a horse to come out of the clouds and win, 163:1 would be a lot better than "fair".

That, and the fact the winner was running on artificial surface at Turfway makes his performances there even more impressive, given a likely suicide pace scenario.

It's always easier to go back and say this and that, so I'm not getting too much into how everybody missed the winner. But for anybody able to throw out general consensus the horse did figure, 80:1, 163:1, or 350:1.
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05-08-2022 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
amazing race - just watching some clips - I see everyone was interested in how RS was acting after the win biting at the guide horse or whatever - and there's robot Tirico ignoring what's happening on screen to drone on about something else
Horse bites - no thanks. Not only painful but can pack a bacteria bonus.

My friend’s horse bit his neck and pulled about a 4” x 6” patch of skin off his throat, just missing the jugular. Then it got infected and the Dr told him horse bites can be a germ-fest.

That infected area with putrid scab and beard growing out thru it was really ugly.
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05-08-2022 , 08:33 PM
Yeah, the rider on that lead horse did not look happy. He almost looked like the only thing keeping him from really punching that horse in the face was that he had just won the Derby.

Not really belittling the guy as I certainly wouldn't have wanted to be in that saddle.
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05-09-2022 , 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
Source?
The Daily Racing Form past performances..
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05-09-2022 , 11:54 AM
At least as great a ride as Wings Of Eagles in the 2017 Epsom Derby.
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05-09-2022 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Ames
Yeah, the rider on that lead horse did not look happy. He almost looked like the only thing keeping him from really punching that horse in the face was that he had just won the Derby.

Not really belittling the guy as I certainly wouldn't have wanted to be in that saddle.
Not really a punch, but
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05-09-2022 , 02:54 PM
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05-09-2022 , 02:59 PM
OUCH! ^2
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05-09-2022 , 03:40 PM
Roid rage. I want my superfecta to pay out as if he wasn't there.
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05-09-2022 , 03:46 PM
seems like he just hates other horses to be in front of him
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05-09-2022 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
seems like he just hates other horses to be in front of him
He didn’t seem to care the other 6 times this PIG finished up the track..
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05-09-2022 , 06:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by txdome
Roid rage. I want my superfecta to pay out as if he wasn't there.
LOL!
Yours or his?
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05-09-2022 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Ungar
The Daily Racing Form past performances..
I rely on their Beyers and the stats, subjective stuff like that can be dismissed.
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05-09-2022 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
seems like he just hates other horses to be in front of him
Since he basically is near last early in his PP runlines I kinda think something else is the cause.
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05-09-2022 , 11:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by txdome
Roid rage. I want my superfecta to pay out as if he wasn't there.
You should probably vent at CD who does not have $0.10 supers. Then you might have thrown some combos with the winner on top when you saw the life changing payoffs prior to the race.
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05-09-2022 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
You should probably vent at CD who does not have $0.10 supers. Then you might have thrown some combos with the winner on top when you saw the life changing payoffs prior to the race.
I had 10 cent supers online and had whatever jl ortizs horse was as my longshot.
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05-09-2022 , 11:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by txdome
I had 10 cent supers online and had whatever jl ortizs horse was as my longshot.
Were your bets going to the KD pool? Churchill min $1 supers.

Simplification def had value, but there is no reason to limit your combos to the same longshot. $0.10 even more so. But you can't bet em all.
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05-09-2022 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
Were your bets going to the KD pool? Churchill min $1 supers.

Simplification def had value, but there is no reason to limit your combos to the same longshot. $0.10 even more so. But you can't bet em all.
Maybe not same pool, but same payouts on bovada, just like all other tracks and races. No huge bets like pick 5s or pentas available though and supers are the only bet available under a dollar, no 50 cent tris.
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05-10-2022 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by txdome
Maybe not same pool, but same payouts on bovada, just like all other tracks and races. No huge bets like pick 5s or pentas available though and supers are the only bet available under a dollar, no 50 cent tris.
Got it. That would be a good reason not to play huge paying supers if its a banked pool. At least for $1. For $0.10, maybe.
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05-10-2022 , 12:04 AM
Special Races - Maximum Payout Per Race: $50,000.00
Maximum Stake Per Straight Wager: $1000.00 | Maximum Stake Per Exotic Wager: $500.00
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Breeder's Cup Dubai World Cup
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05-10-2022 , 12:07 AM
Yeah, no way would they be paying full track odds on $300k+. They aren't that stupid.

Personally, I prefer my $ in the actual pool. Trust issues I guess. Although if you can bet lower denominations that has to factor in somewhat.
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05-10-2022 , 02:00 AM
terrible Derby. Easily the worst winner credentials-wise coming into the race I've seen in the last 30 years. I still don't believe it. Rich Strike got trounced by Epicenter routing at the Fairgrounds at the end of last year and there was nothing to suggest that something had happened since then to suggest any different result on Saturday. The very early pace was fast but Epicenter was well off of that and ran 6 furlongs in 1:11. Nothing so crazy that would suggest a horse would be coming out of the clouds to run him down him.

The silver lining is that Rich Strike will be completely over bet in the Preakness (he should be 80-1 again but won't be) to create value on other horses.
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05-10-2022 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 702guy
terrible Derby. Easily the worst winner credentials-wise coming into the race I've seen in the last 30 years. I still don't believe it. Rich Strike got trounced by Epicenter routing at the Fairgrounds at the end of last year and there was nothing to suggest that something had happened since then to suggest any different result on Saturday. The very early pace was fast but Epicenter was well off of that and ran 6 furlongs in 1:11. Nothing so crazy that would suggest a horse would be coming out of the clouds to run him down him.

The silver lining is that Rich Strike will be completely over bet in the Preakness (he should be 80-1 again but won't be) to create value on other horses.
Since horse racing is always on the up and up, I am sure the best horse won the race..
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