oh my main focus here is beating season long player props - where 99% of the efforts go

and with i get around that issue by never collapsing into a single blended stat line in the first place. i take that blended line - which is fairly accurate based on plate appearance rate, but wildly inaccurate in terms of being unable to predict plate appearances

so when i'm figuring the rate at which alejandro kirk, a guy who is projected to hit 18 hr, will hit o14.5 as DK has his at 15+ at -180

but it's not simply yes that's value because 18>14.5 but rather "he's a catcher so his pa are capped to begin with and due to his age and position/platoon chances" we think this is a good distribution of PA - so he'll get over 15 more often than he doesn't, and he's going to have a bunch of years where he hits 25+ or even has 15 by the all star break - but along with those he is going to have a lot of 200-300 pa seasons where he hits 8-12 instead - my goal is to focus on frequencies



but for the auction values calculator i'm working on, that's my main goal is to have a dynamic value where we can punt categories and recalc on the fly and we adjust based upon who's already been taken

biggest example i can think of is nfl, where there's a couple qbs that are clearly better than the others - but once those are gone, all qb value evaporates because there's more playable qbs of largely indifferent projections than there are teams without qbs so you're better off literally taking your defense and kicker prior to taking your qb with the last pick (i rarely do this because i usually overvalue one or two 2nd or 3rd tier guys and want to make sure i get em but if i'm surprised and they go early i do and have taken my qb with the last pick)

This is the same problem I am discussing, just a different context.

If anyone cares, here is Bobo's 2026 Model Projections, I'll remind anyone who cares I was more accurate than books and fangraphs last year

National2026 vs.FG/vs.BP/vs.Ceasar's
Phillies 90-72 (+2.5)(+5.0)(+0.5)
Braves 86-76 (-3.5)(-6.0)(-2.5)
Mets 83-79 (-6.5)(-5.5)(-7.5)
Marlins 68-94 (-7.0)(-7.0)(-5.5)
Nationals 62-100 (-6.0)(-3.5)(-3.5)

Cubs 93-69 (+7.0)(+2.5)(+4.5)
Brewers 91-71 (+9.0)(+10.5)(+6.5)
Reds 84-78 (+5.5)(+5.0)(+1.5)
Pirates 76-86 (-7.0)(-3.5)(-2.5)
Cardinals 71-91 (-4.0)(+5.0)(+1.5)

Dodgers 103-59 (+3.5)(-2.0)(+0.5)
Padres 89-73 (+9.0)(-7.5)(+4.5)
Dbacks 87-75 (+5.5)(+10.0)(+7.5)
Giants 84-78 (+1.5)(+1.5)(+2.5)
Rockies 51-111 (-14.0)(-9.5)(-4.5)


American2026 vs.FG/vs.BP/vs.Ceasar's
Yankees 96-66 (+9.5)(+7.5)(+5.5)
Red Sox 90-72 (+5.5)(+8.0)(+2.5)
Blue Jays 86-76 (+1.0)(-3.0)(-2.5)
Rays 82-80 (+2.0)(+1.0)(+4.5)
Orioles 82-80 (-1.5)(-2.5)(-4.5)

Tigers 89-73 (+3.0)(+5.0)(+3.5)
Royals 84-78 (+3.5)(-0.5)(+1.5)
Guardians 82-80 (+6.5)(+6.0)(+2.5)
Twins 77-85 (-1.0)(-2.0)(+4.5)
White Sox 65-97 (-2.5)(-4.5)(-2.5)

Mariners 89-73 (+1.0)(-4.0)(-0.5)
Rangers 85-77 (+4.5)(+0.5)(+1.5)
Astros 83-79 (+2.5)(-2.5)(-2.5)
Athletics 70-92 (-8.5)(-5.5)(-6.5)
Angels 63-99 (-9.5)(-3.5)(-7.5)

Yankees with the best record in the AL.

Seems legit to me.

Mets 83-79. I can see that too.

Yes as a Mets fan, I am displeased by my own projections.

Jurickson nuked. So it be
gins

Exactly how big an idiot is Profar?

he probably bought the wrong urine

Tigers +100 (evens) to win The Central.

AORN that is the play.

Tigers aren't a perfect team, but I have to believe they are better than CLE if they stay reasonably healthy. I think Colt Keith has a legit shot at taking a step forward.

For real.

Good riddance.

Colt Keith, Riley Greene, & Kerry Carpenter are all under 29 years of age. All three are expected to improve over last season's metrics.

I actually think they are close to a perfect team chemistry wise. Adding a wildcard (Valdez) and the game's generational piece (Verlander) is just what the clubhouse needs after stagnating last season. JV means a lot to the city too, and he still has gas.

Dingler was the gold glove winner at C last year in what I believe was his first full season of play. I don't see him having a huge sophomore slump given his good contact rate but who knows.

Good fortune favors this team having a deep run this year.

Eh. I think Greene and Carpenter are less likely than Keith to improve over last year. Greene seems to have settled into who he is, which is a good slugger, but not a guy who makes enough contact or has good enough pitch recognition to become a true superstar. And Carpenter seems locked in as an effective strong side platoon guy who is a bit injury prone.

I'm intrigued by Wenceel Perez. I think he can improve against RHP.

It will help if McGonigle can get up quickly and handle SS defensively because Javy Baez looks very cooked as a hitter. (As an aside, Baez should be a cautionary tale for any team that is thinking about giving Elly de la Cruz a huge long term deal. Athletic but hopelessly undisciplined hitters like Baez and Cruz can make it all work at an All-Star level when they are at their physical peaks, but they can go off a cliff when their athleticism begins to fade even a little bit.)

Skubal and Framber figure to the best 1-2 punch of any rotation in the AL, and probably the best in the majors. And strength at the top is more important than depth come playoff time.

I really hope it works out and everyone stays healthy. The franchise deserves it for sticking with its young guys and stepping up to try and win by signing Framber.

Go Tigers!

For fun and frivolity I put $40 on each team. My book matches Caesar's except for 2 bets by a half a game but didn't change the bet. I love futures bets. Thanks for the sweat!

good luck!

Anyone watching Japan vs Korea? I'm quite enjoying it. I'm glad WBC is a thing.

The WBC is indeed awesome!

Skubal is throwing tonight against Great Britain on Fox Network. 3-4 innings of work expected.

I didn't realize Turang had such good fundamentals.

DeRosa seems like the ****ing man! He gives character and team chemistry all the rightfully so credit.

SKUBZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
just tuned in

**** him. Leave the roster spot open for a player who actually wants to participate in the tournament.

WBC is so elite

It's not really his decision on how much he can pitch. It's the mlb team and insurance who decides that.

Also, that Brit mgr is dog dumb for pulling that pitcher at 30 pitches after striking out the first 4 batters he faced, which included Bryce and Judge.

skubz says the wbc final is now on the table for him.

players in droves are coming out saying this format matters more than mlb.