I still think Rubio action is predicated on the underpants gnome theory of this thing. Step one is Rubio is the last acceptable nominee to Republican elites that Trump hasn't thoroughly emasculated.

Step two is ... something.

And step three is Rubio wins the nomination.

I think this is entirely plausible outcome. I'll even grant it's the most likely outcome at this point.

But anyone who has alot of equity in Rubio is essentially counting on the GOP establishment at this point. I remain a big proponent that the GOP establishment will rally here and get the inmates back in their cells and funnel them to Rubio.

But their track record is bad so far in the last year. They have exerted almost no control so far.

President of New Hampshire.

Black Lives Matter have information on donations here. Can't imagine a more appropriate recipient outside of straight-up offering the money to Michael Brown's family, which seems a tad crass.

Remember your Burger King/Subway analogy a while back? Cruz is in that position where the same factors that bring Trumpelstiltskin tumbling down (such as a move toward grown-up candidates) will also hurt Cruz. I don't see Trump flaming out because of some gaffe the way Carson did. We've seen the man flat out lie about 9/11 cheering, dis Vietnam POWs, call for Muslim registries, mock a guy's physical disability, etc. etc. and his polling has been resilient. Unless he's got some male prostitute scandal he's kept under wraps all these years, I don't see a scenario where all his voters fall behind Cruz.

The smart money imo is something like Rubio > TRUMP >> >Cruz >>> other.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=x44EREtI7uY

So Sasse seems like he's auditioning to be Rubio's VP I guess?

Aside from the fact that it's the same old "they hate us for our freedoms" and a Senator from Nebraska is making a video in San Bernadino seems a slight bit political opportunist-y, I actually thought this was surprisingly coherent and not that repugnant. Kudos GOP, you still have a sane one!

I think the bet on Cruz is something like, GOP voters get cold feet and recognize Trump is an offensive attention whore and not a serious candidate, and poses a strategic problem in the general election but don't think the same about Cruz.

I agree that counting on the GOP electorate to come to this conclusion is looking less likely.

But we haven't seen Trump lose yet. Part of his bull**** is that he's a big winner and everyone else is a loser. What if he finishes like, 2nd in Iowa and 3rd in New Hampshire? Is the bull**** veneer worn off? Do people question what they see in Trump? If he's not an alpha winner, what is he but an offensive blowhard?

So maybe Trump's implosion won't be offending nice John McCain or calling all the Mexicans rapey or banning Muslim immigrants, but in response to losing. Cruz seems much better positioned to engage in a long march. Trump seems like a huge part of his shtick is that he's a winner. If he can't actually win, how does he react? Seems unknowable. But I agree it's similarly underpants gnomey. "1. Trump loses 2. Something something, implosion 3. Cruz wins"

Sasse has a nice resume. Harvard, Yale, consulting, PE, DOJ, academia and Congress. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Sasse

All the hallmarks of a closet liberal plus he's not in favor of invading Dearborn so I can only imagine his future is hopeless unless someone appoints him to something.

RINO no doubt. His PhD dissertation, "The Anti-Madalyn Majority: The Secular Left, The Religious Right, and the Rise of Reagan's America."

But Cruz is a much better politician than Trump. Trump won't flame out because people suddenly start disagreeing with the things he says. He'll flame out, if he does, because voters don't think he is suited to hold the office. Basically, I'm saying politicians > non-politicians at getting elected into office, Cruz is a politician, Trump is not.

In today's Republican party, I would say that as a general rule, being a politician with an actual record of real-world governance is a huge liability. That's why governors like Christie, Kasich, and Jeb are all stuck in Nowheresville and why Romney had such a huge problem getting the nom. They've all had to engage in the compromises and back-and-forth that go along with getting things done in politics, and that makes them wishy-wahsy beta RINOs in today's party.

Cruz is sort of an exception to this rule, because his record as a politician largely consists of grandstanding and shutting down the gov't and other irresponsible stuff that's red meat to the Tea Party.

Can I just say I'm 100% in favor of invading Dearborn and bringing their kickass Middle-Eastern restaurants to Real America.

**** the internet ate my reply.

I agree that establishment (or incumbent) politicians are more vulnerable in the current political climate, as shown by recent elections. However, the whole anti-politician sentiment always exists during elections, and you see completely absurd things where career politicians claim to be outsiders attempting to buck the establishment. And then they (usually) win, because people prefer to elect politicians, even while claiming otherwise.

They didn't just suddenly decide to become radicals though. In order to get to that kind of situation, you need to fan the flames first. General resentment of the political establishment is always there. It isn't enough for outcomes like Nazi Germany to arise. I do agree that over the past several decades, the Republican party has been playing with fire with their rhetoric and agitprop. The chickens will come home to roost without some shift in tone.

Holy crap Trump would include American Muslims currently overseas. I thought he just meant new visas and immigrants. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...ms-entering-us

Presumably this would even include Muslim members of the armed forces serving overseas. o_O

FWIW Trump even seems to have lost chiefsplanet on this one.

being Trump's campaign manager is probably a pretty easy job

To be fair, this is standard for people in finance. The pay stub with your bonus will be more than the rest of your pay stubs combined....4-5 times as much in a good year.

What if a radical Muslim ticks the 'Christian' box in order to enter the country and blow up the White House? Checkmate, Donald, checkmate.

Actually, I think you're right. I googled 'Christian refugee + Syria + Trump' and he doesn't think they should be allowed to enter the country, because they could be terrorists. Well, then. Trump realllllllllllllllllly doesn't ike immigrants, huh? But why does he keep marrying them? Such a complex man.

Yeah that's what I was thinking but I didn't know it was that much of the pie.

Wasn't there some sort of official strategy recommendation to Republican candidates to move toward Trump's positions to peel off some of his support? So much for that.

The fact that the nominee will 98% be Trump/Rubio/Cruz in a cycle where there is a very disliked and getable Hillary on the other side is just incredible. If you rolled back time only roughly one year and floated that as our current reality i don't think many people would believe it.

And people had a problem with Mitt Romney? This is the alternative....

We thought Bush would be this cycles Romney. As it turns out he is a horrible campaigner.

Yeah this really sucks. I mean Trump is funny on some level and I think from an entertainment standpoint it was fun to have him in the race, I doubt he believes half the **** he says, maybe he does, who knows.

The bottom line is he has uncovered a very dark part of America.

I agree with the poster who said that people are being left behind, wealth has been extracted and it is harder to get ahead these days and that is really showing up in peoples hostilities right now.

Today is the first day that I think I really realized there are a whole bunch of mother****ers out that are extremely ignorant, but they're angry, they're fed up and someone is telling them what they want to hear and maybe this country having a major shift in how it is run could be upon us. Not to get over the top, but it is pretty damn ugly.

The anti-establishment year is very real. No clue how the GOP handles this loon.