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Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump)

07-03-2015 , 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33

There is a sizeable number of Republicans who think political correctness is running amok. Like that's the #1 problem facing the US. And so, they find a lot of appeal in someone like Trump, who keeps unapologetically spouting the same bigoted thoughts they themselves want to say out loud.
Important clarification.
07-03-2015 , 10:26 PM
revots down with Trumps claptrap is shocking!
07-03-2015 , 11:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatkid
revots down with Trumps claptrap is shocking!
Lol wtf are you talking about? I've been mocking Trump and calling him a racist moron and a buffoon from the beginning. Read my post and tell me where I am "down with" Trump. It was an anecdote, based on comments I saw on a FB post by the PGA of America, that a lot of racist morons support Trump and think decrying racism = political correctness run amok. I never placed myself in with those morons. I'm a liberal democrat.

JFC this forum.
07-04-2015 , 12:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Lol wtf are you talking about? I've been mocking Trump and calling him a racist moron and a buffoon from the beginning. Read my post and tell me where I am "down with" Trump. It was an anecdote, based on comments I saw on a FB post by the PGA of America, that a lot of racist morons support Trump and think decrying racism = political correctness run amok. I never placed myself in with those morons. I'm a liberal democrat.

JFC this forum.
Liberal democrat = rape apology, killing black people apology, and transphobia?

Who knew...

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07-04-2015 , 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Lol wtf are you talking about? I've been mocking Trump and calling him a racist moron and a buffoon from the beginning. Read my post and tell me where I am "down with" Trump. It was an anecdote, based on comments I saw on a FB post by the PGA of America, that a lot of racist morons support Trump and think decrying racism = political correctness run amok. I never placed myself in with those morons. I'm a liberal democrat.

JFC this forum.
My bad. Please proceed gov'na.
07-04-2015 , 12:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rugby
Liberal democrat = rape apology, killing black people apology, and transphobia?

Who knew...

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Lollllllll no, no, and wtf? Transphobia? Haha ok then.
07-04-2015 , 12:31 AM
Politics is the one forum where it is completely impossible to know if people are trolling or just can't ****ing follow someone else's train of thought.
07-04-2015 , 12:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
Graham is absolutely running for either VP or a cabinet gig. He has a day job, the Presidential campaign is just his interview process for the promotion.
it's probably a good way to meet like-minded bachelors too.
07-04-2015 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrawNone
it's probably a good way to meet like-minded bachelors too.
I lol'd

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07-04-2015 , 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Lollllllll no, no, and wtf? Transphobia? Haha ok then.
You didn't go out to bat for the parents who hounded their trans daughter to death? Maybe I'm getting my bigots mixed up...
07-04-2015 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Tend to agree with this. For ex. I recently saw a post from the major golf tours distancing themselves from Trump, and saying his comments went against the "inclusive spirit of golf". (Several PGA tournaments are played at Trump courses.) The comments to this post were uniformly pro-Trump. They said his words were taken out of context (he was only talking about ILLEGAL Mexicans!), and they were angry that the PGA was "caving to the PC police/liberal media".

There is a sizeable number of Republicans who think political correctness is running amok. Like that's the #1 problem facing the US. And so, they find a lot of appeal in someone like Trump, who keeps unapologetically spouting the same non-PC thoughts they themselves want to say out loud.
revots33:

If you listen to Trump's announcement speech

http://www.c-span.org/video/?326473-...n-announcement

it's obvious "The Donald" has a massive ego, but it's also easy to see how some of his slop will have wide appeal - and not just to the Tea Party crowd. (The things Mr. Trump says about the CEO of Ford opening a new manufacturing plant in Mexico and sending "thousands of American jobs" south of the border will resonate with anybody who have lost their job due to a plant closure - irrespective of whether or not their job actually went to Mexico.) If Trump somehow manages to get the Republican nomination, it may be more than just Tea Party people voting for him. This is populist red meat ...

The first Republican debate in August could be entertaining - especially if Mr. Trump comes out with guns (and tongue) blazing. Chris Matthews thinks Trump and Chris Christie will mix it up while Jeb Bush tries to stay out of their way (as much as possible) hoping they destroy each other. I'm not sure if that's the way it will play out ...

Based on some of his recent comments, (i.e. "Jeb Bush can't negotiate his way out of a brown paper bag!" et cetera), Mr. Trump seems to believe that he is in second place (in the polling) to Jeb; so his best play (in the debate) may be to go after the presumed front runner directly. If "The Donald" starts spewing his anti-Mexican rhetoric, he could get under Jeb's skin. If that happens it will be popcorn time indeed. Reince Priebus and Mitt Romney will probably cringe, but Hillary (and Democrats) will love it.

Last edited by Alan C. Lawhon; 07-04-2015 at 04:13 AM.
07-04-2015 , 08:49 AM
I think this thread overestimates the entertainment potential of the large field debates. 90 minutes of air time split by 10 candidates is not going to be a free flowing affair. Expect a bunch of stock answers.
07-04-2015 , 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rugby
You didn't go out to bat for the parents who hounded their trans daughter to death? Maybe I'm getting my bigots mixed up...
This is why avatar should be a requirement around here. Easier to keep people straight (as in tell them apart from each other)
07-04-2015 , 10:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Pew estimates 12% of America are socially conservative populists. That's Trump's bread and butter right there. Trump may also have some soft support among business conservatives (10% of the general public) and what Pew calls hard-pressed skeptics (13% of the general public), but you can imagine why those groups might oppose Trump too:

http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/...d-red-vs-blue/

I'm guessing the theoretical upper bounds of some mystical alternate universe where it's Trump versus some Generic, Replacement Level Democratic candidate is something like 40% of the national vote because alot of the people that would be hardcore Trump backers are more likely to vote than the people who are inclined to support Generic Replacement Level Democratic candidates.

But those 12% of hardcore conservatives make up a large part of the GOP base so his upper bounds in GOP primary battles are hard to predict, particularly if turnout is low.
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
Trump isn't reliably socially conservative. He has flipped on abortion and isn't strongly anti gay. I would guess his base is the disaffected white working class.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
I'd imagine that Trump's support has a massive crossover with Perot's.
Pew's "hard-pressed" skeptics are basically the disaffected white working class. They are not particularly well informed about politics, mostly white, mostly downtrodden, mostly males. The Perot voter. Per Pew:

Quote:
Social Characteristics
  • Seven-in-ten (71%) Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the poor have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently.
  • Just 39% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they are interested in government and politics, the lowest percentage of any typology group.
  • About six-in-ten (61%) are white, non-Hispanic; 20% are black while 9% are Hispanic.
  • About half (51%) are 50 or older, which is somewhat higher than the share of older Americans in the public (44%).
  • Only about a third of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (32%) say they work-full-time.
Quote:
U.S. should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate at home
Hard pressed skeptics: 87%
General public: 60%

Immigrants today are a burden on the country
Hard pressed skeptics: 79%
General public: 35%
See bolded in my first paragraph. I do think you're both correct this is a possible reservoir of Trump voters. They are generally downtrodden though, and dependent on government assistance but unlike Tea Party types, not necessarily ideologically or morally opposed to them.

I agree these are *potential* and only potential Trump voters in a general election. These are not the types of people you want to count on to win a GOP primary though.

So, in sum: I acknowledge Trump could win over these people, who were largely where Perot fished from too. Which is why I don't think he would max out at the US's ~15% of Tea Party hardcore conservative types. He could win over some downtrodden whites suspicious of immigration, free trade agreements, and not generally well informed. But I do think he would have to guarantee these people to continue to get their Medicare and Social Security and make some general concessions to not threaten handouts to these people, and broaden his appeal beyond hardcore right-wingers. And these people aren't reliable GOP primary voters.

Last edited by DVaut1; 07-04-2015 at 10:27 AM.
07-04-2015 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Low Key
This is why avatar should be a requirement around here. Easier to keep people straight (as in tell them apart from each other)
Or, could just stick to the thread and discuss the republican field, rather than derail it to call people bigots for no reason.

Although I will say LowK you do prob have my fav avatar
07-04-2015 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
I think this thread overestimates the entertainment potential of the large field debates. 90 minutes of air time split by 10 candidates is not going to be a free flowing affair. Expect a bunch of stock answers.
Tend to agree except for Trump, because he is so dumb that he can't speak off the cuff without saying something ridiculous.
07-04-2015 , 12:06 PM
THE DONALD was clearly right. We need that big wall.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/03/us/san...ted/index.html
07-04-2015 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Tend to agree except for Trump, because he is so dumb that he can't speak off the cuff without saying something ridiculous.

Carlson could provide some insanity too. He doesn't have any experience and I doubt he will be well prepared. Cruz might find it beneficial to grab a headline by being controversial. It has potential to be more interesting than last years cattle call debates.
One moderating factor for lib excitement is this is on Fox. Fox ran good debates for the GOP voter by helping conservatives decide who they are going to pick but you won't see the questioning of the entire philosophy like you will on other stations.

Last edited by seattlelou; 07-04-2015 at 12:16 PM.
07-04-2015 , 12:55 PM
The main thing he has going is that he has confidence. He either absolutely 100% believes everything he says or he is an amazing actor. "I will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created" "I will make America great again" "I will build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" and people just eat up that ****. And plus everyone else enables him. It's like giving a drug addict more drugs. Fox news takes him seriously, the RNC takes him seriously, the other candidates take him seriously. We live in a world of insanity where Donald Trump is considered a serious candidate.
07-04-2015 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by synth_floyd
The main thing he has going is that he has confidence. He either absolutely 100% believes everything he says or he is an amazing actor. "I will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created" "I will make America great again" "I will build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" and people just eat up that ****. And plus everyone else enables him. It's like giving a drug addict more drugs. Fox news takes him seriously, the RNC takes him seriously, the other candidates take him seriously. We live in a world of insanity where Donald Trump is considered a serious candidate.
He is not a serious candidate. His unfavorables are way to high for him to have any chance of winning. The party is certainly concerned about the damage he can do to the Hispanic vote. The other candidates would prefer to ignore him like they did Ron but they can't when the media asks them to react to his statements.
07-04-2015 , 01:30 PM
Trump is only an interesting candidate in that we now can quantify the low-info/racist disaffected wing of the republican party at an absolute floor of 12%. These are the people pissed off but too lazy to try to figure out why. My trainer was a Trump fan the last time around. Not sure about this time.
07-04-2015 , 01:33 PM
Definitely need suzzer trainer updates going forward this election
07-04-2015 , 01:35 PM
"Trainer".
07-04-2015 , 01:46 PM
Lol what kind of trainer?
07-04-2015 , 02:03 PM
Personal ldo

Animal?

      
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