Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Pew estimates 12% of America are socially conservative populists. That's Trump's bread and butter right there. Trump may also have some soft support among business conservatives (10% of the general public) and what Pew calls hard-pressed skeptics (13% of the general public), but you can imagine why those groups might oppose Trump too:
http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/...d-red-vs-blue/
I'm guessing the theoretical upper bounds of some mystical alternate universe where it's Trump versus some Generic, Replacement Level Democratic candidate is something like 40% of the national vote because alot of the people that would be hardcore Trump backers are more likely to vote than the people who are inclined to support Generic Replacement Level Democratic candidates.
But those 12% of hardcore conservatives make up a large part of the GOP base so his upper bounds in GOP primary battles are hard to predict, particularly if turnout is low.
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
Trump isn't reliably socially conservative. He has flipped on abortion and isn't strongly anti gay. I would guess his base is the disaffected white working class.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
I'd imagine that Trump's support has a massive crossover with Perot's.
Pew's "hard-pressed" skeptics are basically the disaffected white working class. They are not particularly well informed about politics, mostly white, mostly downtrodden, mostly males. The Perot voter. Per Pew:
Quote:
Social Characteristics
- Seven-in-ten (71%) Hard-Pressed Skeptics say the poor have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently.
- Just 39% of Hard-Pressed Skeptics say they are interested in government and politics, the lowest percentage of any typology group.
- About six-in-ten (61%) are white, non-Hispanic; 20% are black while 9% are Hispanic.
- About half (51%) are 50 or older, which is somewhat higher than the share of older Americans in the public (44%).
- Only about a third of Hard-Pressed Skeptics (32%) say they work-full-time.
Quote:
U.S. should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate at home
Hard pressed skeptics: 87%
General public: 60%
Immigrants today are a burden on the country
Hard pressed skeptics: 79%
General public: 35%
See bolded in my first paragraph. I do think you're both correct this is a possible reservoir of Trump voters. They are generally downtrodden though, and dependent on government assistance but unlike Tea Party types, not necessarily ideologically or morally opposed to them.
I agree these are *potential* and only potential Trump voters in a
general election. These are not the types of people you want to count on to win a GOP primary though.
So, in sum: I acknowledge Trump could win over these people, who were largely where Perot fished from too. Which is why I don't think he would max out at the US's ~15% of Tea Party hardcore conservative types. He could win over some downtrodden whites suspicious of immigration, free trade agreements, and not generally well informed. But I do think he would have to guarantee these people to continue to get their Medicare and Social Security and make some general concessions to not threaten handouts to these people, and broaden his appeal beyond hardcore right-wingers. And these people aren't reliable GOP primary voters.
Last edited by DVaut1; 07-04-2015 at 10:27 AM.