Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? - Page 166 - Politics and Economics

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Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee?

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07-19-2011 , 11:07 AM

#4126

SenorKeeed

mew mew mew

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 37,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVaut1

Basically, I just want to make sure that we're clear that the US failing to raise the debt limit does not mean auto default, because the long twisty end of the road there is granting that alternatives to raising the debt limit = prima facie default, which is actually like this meme for hysterical rightwingotards who claim the US government is always defaulting because inflation exists and Congress might reduce SS benefits or raise the retirement age. Don't grant them that just to frighten them about this or you've already granted them the long-term war that when the government does anything, it's defaulting if it ever changes policies, so government shouldn't do anything. You're conceding the government can't operate welfare programs because if demographic changes require changes to the programs, just as a for instance, they've necessarily lied and defaulted and now we just have to dismantle the federal government, omfg thanks liberals for ruining everything line.

Yes. The current meme of "we must be allowed to borrow more money so we don't default" that is being put forward by many on the left is completely absurd. As if the Congress doesn't have the power to increase revenues or decrease spending in a matter of days. And if decreasing planned Social Security or Medicare payments is counted as a default, then the US already "defaulted" in the early 80s.

07-19-2011 , 11:25 AM

#4127

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Romney/Bachmann.

07-19-2011 , 11:29 AM

#4128

grizy

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,796

Please, no. I do not want Bachmann a bad heart attack away from becoming POTUS.

07-19-2011 , 11:30 AM

#4129

General Tsao

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Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 30,575

really can't see how romney picking bachmann would make any sense. he's already going to get all the racists votes anyways, shouldn't he pick someone more liberal to help win over liberal leaning independents/former Obama supporters?

07-19-2011 , 11:31 AM

#4130

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by General Tsao

Turnout, dude. Turnout.

07-19-2011 , 11:32 AM

#4131

grizy

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,796

It's not like Bachmann can bring the ticket some swing states. She's just gonna make red states redder.

07-19-2011 , 11:38 AM

#4132

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

Please, no. I do not want Bachmann a bad heart attack away from becoming POTUS.

I definitely never said I wanted that either!

Quote:

Originally Posted by General Tsao

The radical right wing would rather cut their wrists than elect a Mormon who advocated a universal healthcare plan in his state...so yeah, they need Bachmann. Romney is plenty moderate enough to do well with that group.

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

It's not like Bachmann can bring the ticket some swing states. She's just gonna make red states redder.

Of course she is...we're talking about turnout here.

07-19-2011 , 11:40 AM

#4133

nyc999

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Yeah, in some sense Bachmann VP nod 2012 = Palin VP nod 2008 (or something close), in the sense that it energizes the right, but alienates the middle.

07-19-2011 , 11:43 AM

#4134

henway

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 173

Turnout will not be an issue for republicans in 2012. As far as the VP slot in concerned Rubio has it sown up if he wants it.

07-19-2011 , 11:44 AM

#4135

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by henway

Turnout will not be an issue for republicans in 2012. As far as the VP slot in concerned Rubio has it sown up if he wants it.

Doubt either side wants it...Rubio has plenty of time and Romney is polling well in FL and won't need him necessarily to swing it.

07-19-2011 , 11:47 AM

#4136

Wynton

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Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 15,189

Quote:

Originally Posted by henway

Turnout will not be an issue for republicans in 2012.

Yes it will, particularly if Romney is the candidate.

07-19-2011 , 11:56 AM

#4137

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

Incidentally, I just noticed that Kos calls Bachmann "perhaps the best funded candidate." While it's obviously not true that she has anywhere near as much money as Romney right now, I don't think it's crazy that she could catch up to be in the same ballpark. I've read several articles recently that suggest that many GOP fundraising types have been holding back, for whatever reason. Also, Bachmann does seem like the type who would do well raising money from small donors.

Mr. K must be praying or something. According to the NYT, Romney has out raised Bachmann 18.3M to 3.6 M so far and he ignores Romney's enormous personal wealth , but Bachmann is perhaps the best funded candidate :

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ca...s&ref=politics

His "analysis" of the early primaries was , well, interesting. He likes Bachmann's chances in Nevada with a large Mormon and Mexican population. He ignores Michigan, a state where the Romney brand is well established, etc. She has zero chance to win in the big super Tuesday states like CA, NY, IL, NJ etc.

She will likely win Iowa and has a chance in SC, but where does she get the delegates moving forward .

07-19-2011 , 12:00 PM

#4138

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

Yes it will, particularly if Romney is the candidate.

I think you underestimate the intense loathing of Obama's policies on the right. Very few R's are going to stay at home even if Romney's the nominee.

07-19-2011 , 12:04 PM

#4139

henway

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 173

Obama might or might not have cut into his turnout from 2008 but he certainly has motivated his opponents. Regardless of the top of the ticket republicans will be voting in larger numbers in 2012 than 2008.

Rubio > the field to be vp for republicans in 2012. If reps win he's VP if reps lose he's the front runner for 2016.

07-19-2011 , 12:04 PM

#4140

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

Yes it will, particularly if Romney is the candidate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by swinginglory

I think you underestimate the intense loathing of Obama's policies on the right. Very few R's are going to stay at home even if Romney's the nominee.

This.

There are two kinds of presidential elections: man vs man and referendums, the former being typical for elections after a two-termer has to go, the latter when there's an incumbent running for re-election. Obama is so polarizing that this is DEFINITELY a referendum.

07-19-2011 , 12:11 PM

#4141

The 13th 4postle

banned

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 11,244

Picking Rubio isn't just about Florida. It's about Latinos. Picking Rubio would put a huge growing demographic into play and the Republicans need them badly to survive in the future.

07-19-2011 , 12:11 PM

#4142

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

Turnout, dude. Turnout.

In which swing states does she turn out more people than she turns off? Iowa, maybe. Not MN where she needs national help to win her district. She might drive up turnout a bit in KY, TN and WV, but they are R locks already.

Nominee Romney needs a conservative who is palatable to the right who doesn't scare independents in Bucks County like suburbs and exurbs. Rubio or Daniels would fit that bill nicely.

07-19-2011 , 12:15 PM

#4143

cres

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 10,331

Don't forget the intense GOP machine in place statewide working on establishing strict ID requirements for voting. These tactics tend to slow the black/minority/young voting bloc, predominately democrat.

07-19-2011 , 12:16 PM

#4144

henway

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 173

Strict ID requirements like showing your ID?

07-19-2011 , 12:17 PM

#4145

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by cres

I lean pretty liberal but I just can't get upset about this...not because of the supposed effect but because it's ****** stupid that it has that effect, and really a personal problem for those that it affects.

07-19-2011 , 12:23 PM

#4146

henway

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 173

Quote:

Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle

Picking Rubio isn't just about Florida. It's about Latinos. Picking Rubio would put a huge growing demographic into play and the Republicans need them badly to survive in the future.

Bingo.

Rubio is a powerful force for many reasons.

07-19-2011 , 12:26 PM

#4147

cres

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 10,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by henway

Strict ID requirements like showing your ID?

Some states refuse to accept university issues ID's, how many college students get a drivers licence. The other I saw was in Texas, a gun permit is acceptable over a college issue.

I agree with donkslayer, its up to each individual to not only have some sort of ID, but to also be proactive in the voting process. Yet when one party makes deliberate changes to stifle turnoout, where do you begin to draw the line.

07-19-2011 , 12:32 PM

#4148

DonkSlayer

adept

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by cres

University ID's are issued to non-citizens all the time, and are not provided by governments.

I also get a just a slight noise from the racial dog whistles when I see these things being enacted, but really, I think it's probably fine in general.

07-19-2011 , 12:33 PM

#4149

swinginglory

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,508

Quote:

Originally Posted by cres

Are you saying those groups are too dumb or lazy to bring proper ID to the polling place? I'm flying to Philly tomorrow afternoon and I know full well if I don't bring proper ID, I'm not getting on the plane.

Are they discriminating against me asking for identification? Why would the democratic voting block have any problem with ID? Don't we want to protect the sanctity of the vote?

07-19-2011 , 12:33 PM

#4150

henway

centurion

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 173

Strict ID requirements to stifle turnout is a canard from the left. A fair process is the whole point. When cities and towns vote at 120% of population both sides should be concerned.

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