Who Will Be the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee? - Page 343 - Politics and Economics

Are you willing to accept Nate Silver's wager to stop writing about politics if Cain wins the nomination? It's not even your job unlike some people who have accepted it.

In any case, I agree with Nate's premise that it's pretty arrogant to claim that "the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance". Surely polls have some meaning, and even if Cain is just the anti-Romney placeholder, sufficient animosity and the lack of a better placeholder might be good enough.

10-27-2011 , 08:46 AM

#8553

Wynton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

When Romney wins IA, NH, & SC does everyone except Ron Paul drop out?

Cain is basically on a book tour, so he could continue for months.

10-27-2011 , 09:51 AM

#8554

[x] swanny

formerly Nepa

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 2,306

Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

When Romney wins IA, NH, & SC does everyone except Ron Paul drop out?

Mitt Most likely wins in NH but I don't think he wins in IA or SC. There more of a chance that there are 3 different winners at this point which will make this a really long drawn out primary. I'm predicting a brokered convention.

10-27-2011 , 10:12 AM

#8555

caseycjc

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Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 4,728

From what I saw on CNN/ Fox, he's (Mitt) crushing NH and has a slight lead in SC and IA.

10-27-2011 , 10:13 AM

#8556

[Phill]

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If Mitt won IA, SC and NH and they started dropping out one by one why would the third guy left with Romney and Paul drop out? Esp as NH and IA are doing proportional allocation of votes with SC being winner take all. So while Romney gets a big lead he wont have won at all.

10-27-2011 , 11:48 AM

#8557

Wynton

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Quality rant from Andrew Sullivan.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....rman-cain.html

Quote:

My own take on this is that Cain is a great performer - he makes a living as a motivational speaker, after all - and the rest of the field is hobbled by one glaring problem respectively, while Cain isn't. Perry is simply too dumb and lazy to be president. Romney too transparently opportunist for a purist party. Paul is disqualified because of foreign policy. Bachmann is a programmed bonkers-bot. Santorum is a frothy substance whose views of the world are frozen in place sometime around 1986. Gingrich is an ******* who could never win the presidency, and even those who like his permanent smirk/snarl understand that. Huntsman might as well be Al Sharpton, because of his views on climate change, gays and because of his working for Satan. No wonder Cain has a shot, given the debates. He is likable and brilliant at simple, effective presentation. He has the skills of an actor, and a roguish shamelessness that reminds me a little of Clinton. Even though you know he's a total charlatan, you still kinda like the guy.

He's black too, and one cannot help but feel that some of his support is really a way of expressing hatred for Obama, and proving that the Tea Party is not racist.

But Cain is a function, I think, of a deeper Republican reality. It has become a wing of the entertainment industry, and in that media-industrial complex, the money to be made is immense. You do not make that money or become a star in conservative circles by actually governing, by the process of compromise and negotiation with one's opponents, or by detailed policy knowledge. In the universe where conservatism is defined by Levin and Malkin and Limbaugh and Hannity, you have to be a great polemicist, you have to be partisan above all, you need to be outrageous at times, and you have to appeal to the gut, rather than the brain.

This is an entertainment company based around a religious identity politics and masquerading as a political party. Once you grasp that, you can see why a Mitch Daniels or a Richard Lugar or a Jon Huntsman are asterisks. They know things; they want to govern, not perform; and they are not in a permanent mode of marginalized and angry opposition.

10-27-2011 , 12:34 PM

#8558

[x] swanny

formerly Nepa

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 2,306

Quote:

Originally Posted by caseycjc

From what I saw on CNN/ Fox, he's (Mitt) crushing NH and has a slight lead in SC and IA.

You should look at some other Polls. RCP avg has Cain +5.7 in SC and also leading in IA. Obv Mitt is leading in NH but this is no surprise yet NH is famous for some election day upset surprises.

10-27-2011 , 12:54 PM

#8559

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,986

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wynton

Quality rant from Andrew Sullivan.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....rman-cain.html

Honestly, I think we could do a lot worse than Cain. Mittens would just be the repubs version of Obama, compromising on everything and trying to keep everyone happy to the point of getting little done, and basically campaigning his entire first 4 years.

Ideally Cain would be something like Arnie was in CA - a moderate republican outsider, who figures it out as he goes along, and tries to do the best job for the most people. At least he's got some connection to the urban poor community, so he's not totally oblivious to their issues. And I get the feeling he'd be a lot more likely to shoot from the hip than a pure politician like Obama/Mittens.

Of course that's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is the republican power machine basically owns him and dictates his every move. It's possible that it's a lot easier to be a maverick at the state level.

10-27-2011 , 12:59 PM

#8560

Autocratic

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Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Honestly, I think we could do a lot worse than Cain. Mittens would just be the repubs version of Obama, compromising on everything and trying to keep everyone happy to the point of getting little done, and basically campaigning his entire first 4 years.

Ideally Cain would be something like Arnie was in CA - a moderate republican outsider, who figures it out as he goes along, and tries to do the best job for the most people. At least he's got some connection to the urban poor community, so he's not totally oblivious to their issues. And I get the feeling he'd be a lot more likely to shoot from the hip than a pure politician like Obama/Mittens.

Of course that's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is the republican power machine basically owns him and dictates his every move. It's possible that it's a lot easier to be a maverick at the state level.

No. That is the only scenario.

10-27-2011 , 01:00 PM

#8561

the steam

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All this talk about Cain winning the nomination is just nonsense. About 90% of GOP members hate blacks,and they are gonna vote for him instead of white guys?

10-27-2011 , 01:01 PM

#8562

caseycjc

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LOL@90%ofGOPHATEBLACKS

10-27-2011 , 01:02 PM

#8563

the steam

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Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 1,521

Quote:

Originally Posted by caseycjc

LOL@90%ofGOPHATEBLACKS

Sorry,it's probably more like 95%

10-27-2011 , 01:27 PM

#8564

goofyballer

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Is Andrew Sullivan actually a conservative? I thought he was, but every time I see something he's written posted here he's like "man, our party really blows." Secret Democratic plant?

10-27-2011 , 01:29 PM

#8565

Mayo

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9% of Republicans voted for a black Democrat for president in 2008.

10-27-2011 , 01:30 PM

#8566

caseycjc

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He's a chameleon

10-27-2011 , 01:36 PM

#8567

ikestoys

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofball

Yeah. Definitely don't listen to polls, because the republicans 100%* focus on competence when selecting their candidates.

*For some exceptions see bush, palin, bachmann, frothy, and just to troll LirvA, Paul.

Lol and how many of those won a primary? How many of those even came close?

Lol at you.

10-27-2011 , 01:39 PM

#8568

ikestoys

banned

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Is Andrew Sullivan actually a conservative? I thought he was, but every time I see something he's written posted here he's like "man, our party really blows." Secret Democratic plant?

Andrew Sullivan is a republican as much as I used to be an independent. He likes to pretend otherwise, but he's a solid liberal.

10-27-2011 , 01:41 PM

#8569

Wynton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by goofyballer

Is Andrew Sullivan actually a conservative? I thought he was, but every time I see something he's written posted here he's like "man, our party really blows." Secret Democratic plant?

He still calls himself a conservative and maintains that the GOP has changed more than he has. But I'm sure that many would disagree. He is a big Obama fan.

I recommend his site regardless of one's views, because he does a good job of aggregating opinions of other people.

10-27-2011 , 01:42 PM

#8570

ikestoys

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Quote:

Originally Posted by the steam

All this talk about Cain winning the nomination is just nonsense. About 90% of GOP members hate blacks,and they are gonna vote for him instead of white guys?

Quote:

Originally Posted by the steam

Sorry,it's probably more like 95%

Well, I guess the best thing about the Cain insurgence is that it shows perfectly how completely full of **** this kind of statement is.... so:

Spoiler:

10-27-2011 , 02:00 PM

#8571

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

You guys know the steam is a conservative, right? Who likes to post stories about that time he heard the black parents cheering when the white starting QB of their team got hurt, **** like that?

I mean, even if he hadn't, "hate blacks"? Liberals don't think Republicans hate black people.

Matt Taibbi sez:

Quote:

It's not like the Tea Partiers hate black people. It's just that they're shockingly willing to believe the appalling horse**** fantasy about how white people in the age of Obama are some kind of oppressed minority. That may not be racism, but it is incredibly, earth-shatteringly stupid.

Which ties in nicely with the steam's breathless tales of black parents cheering white injuries, no?

10-27-2011 , 02:01 PM

#8572

ikestoys

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Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 94,424

Nah hard to keep track of the unavatared. The meme is still dead though.

10-27-2011 , 02:03 PM

#8573

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Thomas Jefferson can't possibly be racist he ****ed a black chick!

Seriously, that meme was always a strawman. So yes, it remains dead. You still don't understand what people are talking about when they talk about racism.