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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

03-31-2017 , 07:27 AM
Interesting to follow the impeachment or leave before end of first term odds.

The bookmaker I've looked at had it slightly odds against in general from memory, it was then even with staying (ie the same odds, 11/10 or something) just before the healthcare bill failed, then odds on after that (4/5, evens for surviving). That final price has not moved since then. I guess this is partly as the Russia issue isn't new, but surely you'd expect the market to have moved a bit in recent days?
03-31-2017 , 07:30 AM
I'll add that the odds on winning the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize remain at 20-1, just in case anyone is tracking that market.
03-31-2017 , 07:48 AM
I've been trying to keep tabs on this administration's first 100 days. They move so quickly from one thing to the next that it's hard to remember what happened a few days ago.

A 10-day block is about all you can ask of anyone to take in one sitting, so here are days 61-70.

Trump's First 100: Day's 61-70 - A Few More Turns of the Screw

Day 61
  • Missed from Day 59: Going against the president's promises never to cut Social Security, Budget Director Mulvaney says he is aiming to cut Social Security Disability Insurance.
  • SSDI is a longstanding part of Social Security. Workers have been paying into it for the last 60 years.
  • President holds closed-door meeting with some GOP members and tells them they will lose re-election in 2018 if they don't vote for Trumpcare.
  • House moderate and conservative wings are opposed to parts of the Trumpcare bill for opposite reasons, endangering its passing.
  • No Democrats are expected to vote for the bill.
  • In November, the president tweeted, "I am not trying to get 'top level security clearance' for my children. This was a typically false news story."
  • Ivanka Trump is granted WH security clearance and a West Wing office.
  • It's revealed that Trump Tower was wiretapped by the FBI from 2011 to 2013.
  • The target was a Russian criminal syndicate, and not the president.
  • A Ukrainian lawmaker releases financial documents showing money laundering by former Trump campaign head Manafort on behalf of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.
  • Yanukovych was close to Putin before his ouster by pro-Western protesters. He is wanted in the Ukraine on corruption charges.
Day 62
  • The AP reveals documents showing that in 2005, Paul Manafort pitched and sold a strategy to the Russians designed to influence politics, business dealings and news coverage in the US and around the world.
  • Regarding the strategy Manafort wrote, "We are now of the belief that this model can greatly benefit the Putin Government."
  • Manafort then signed a $10 million annual contract with Russian billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a member of Putin's inner circle.
  • House Intel Chair Nunes announces that Trump campaign officials may have been caught up in lawful, incidental surveillance of foreign nationals during the transition.
  • He specifies that the surveillance was not intended for Trump campaign officials, nor was it investigating Russian meddling.
  • Nunes came up with this information by acting outside his House Intel committee.
  • Says he is on his way to brief Speaker Ryan and the WH on the details. He has not briefed his own Intel committee.
  • This draws a rebuke from Nunes' colleague, House Intel ranking member Adam Schiff, who complains that withholding this information from the committee is a "profound irregularity", adding that "a creditable investigation cannot be conducted this way,"
  • Rep Schiff calls for an independent committee to investigate Russian meddling.
  • Sen McCain weighs in on the sparring committee members, saying "I think that this back and forth and what the American people have found so far is that no longer does Congress have the credibility to handle this alone."
Day 63
  • Rep Nunes tells his House Intel committee he will eventually give them the information he shared with speaker Ryan and the president, but doesn't tell them when he will do so.
  • He also tells them he will not reveal his sources.
  • It is later revealed that Nunes received the information on the WH grounds from two WH officials.
  • President fills his Time magazine interview on the subject of Truth and Falsehoods with a bewildering and lengthy eruption of lies.
  • Adds to his earlier lies about immigrant trouble in Sweden by saying, "The next day they have a massive riot, and death,"
  • Stockholm had a small riot two days after Trump's initial lie about Sweden--possibly in response to his statement--but no deaths.
  • Claims that disgraced congressman Weiner had, "all of Hillary’s email on his thing.”
  • Weiner had some duplicates of Clinton emails on his laptop, all of which had already been reviewed by the FBI and found not to be of substance.
  • About NATO, says, "“NATO, obsolete, because it doesn’t cover terrorism."
  • NATO has been involved with counterterrorism since 1980.
  • Repeats his claim that NATO countries aren't paying their bills, with the implication that they should be paying into a general fund, or maybe paying the US directly.
  • None of the NATO countries owe money in this manner.
  • There is a guideline to spend 2% of their own GDP on their own defense. Most of the NATO countries have not been following that.
  • To conflate this with not paying dues to a general fund is a lie.
  • Uses the "I put wiretapping in quotes" argument at first; then a few minutes later says that House Intel Chief Nunes has vindicated his wiretapping accusations.
  • Nunes' Day 62 revelations say nothing about Trump or his staff being wiretapped.
  • Q: The claim that thousands of Muslims celebrated 9/11 in New Jersey... A: Well if you look at the reporter, he wrote the story in The Washington Post.
  • The reporter Trump mentions has repeatedly denied that any of his stories supported this claim.
  • Trump later publicly mocked the reporter for his physical disability, then afterwards lied about mocking him.
  • There is no TV coverage showing or claiming that large groups of Muslims celebrated the 9/11 attacks in New Jersey.
  • A retired NJ police captain claims to have cleared 20-30 people off of a rooftop after the WTC buildings fell.
  • This is as close to a creditable claim as can be found.
  • Repeats the lie about the existence of millions of illegal voters in the 2016 election.
  • On his accusation that Sen Cruz's father worked with Oswald to assassinate Kennedy, says “Well that was in a newspaper."
  • The newspaper was the National Enquirer, which published a grainy photo of someone whom they purport was Cruz's father, handing out pro-Castro pamphlets.
  • Concludes his defense by saying to his interviewer, "I guess I can't be doing so badly, because I'm president, and you're not."
  • Trumpcare vote scheduled for today is delayed when it becomes apparent that it will not pass.
  • The president signals his wish for a vote tomorrow, saying he will leave Obamacare in place and move on to other agendas if Trumpcare doesn't pass.
  • Speaker Ryan announces a vote for tomorrow.
  • A 19-year-old American-Israeli Jew is tagged as the prime suspect in threats against U.S. Jewish community centers.
Day 64
  • House Intel Chief Nunes postpones open hearing scheduled for Day 68, where several Obama officials were set to testify on possible Trump campaign ties to Russia.
  • House Intel ranking member Adam Schiff accuses Nunes of acceding to pushback from the WH in postponing the meeting.
  • Trumpcare is pulled before the House can vote on it, due to its not having enough votes to pass.
  • The president claims that the Democrats are to blame for the defeat saying, "So when you get zero from the other side--they're letting us down because they're hurting the people."
  • Also says, "“You've all heard my speeches. I never said ‘repeal it and replace it within 64 days.’ I have a long time."
  • Over the past year and a half, the president promised on at least 11 occasions to either immediately or to very quickly repeal and replace Obamacare.
  • Three major Trump campaign officials--Paul Manafort, Carter Page and Roger Stone--all volunteer to talk to the House Intel committee for its investigation into Russian meddling.
  • FBI Director Comey visits the WH. No meeting with him is listed in the WH public schedule today.
  • Former CIA director Woolsey reports that former national security adviser Flynn talked with Turkish officials about kidnapping a Turkish exile in the US and returning him to Turkey as part of an illegal covert operation.
  • Forbes publishes an interview with Eric Trump where he says he gives quarterly financial reports on the Trump business to his father
  • US-led military coalitions in Iraq and Syria are investigating reports that as many as 300 civilians were killed in three recent American airstrikes in the two countries.
Day 65
  • Tweets, "Watch @JudgeJeanine on @FoxNews tonight at 9:00 P.M."
  • Jeanine Pirro, the host of the Judge Jeanine show, lambastes House speaker Ryan and calls for his ouster.
  • Heads out for a day at the Trump National Golf Club in Virginia.
  • Asked about the president's frequent golf trips, Press Sec Spicer says, "“the president will continue to go and travel around the country and have meetings to solve the nation’s problems”.
Day 66
  • It is reported that Trump presented a bogus $374 billion invoice to German chancellor Angela Merkel at their meeting on Day 57.
  • Chancellor Merkel chose not to dignify the insult with a response.
Day 67
  • Signs several Executive Orders reversing several Obama-era regulations.
  • Companies with a history of violating wage, labor and workplace safety laws may now receive federal contracts.
  • The Bureau of Land Management now has less of a say on land that is targeted for use by logging, mining and energy extraction companies.
  • Does away with several school performance measurement and teacher training guidelines.
  • Tweets accusation that 'Bill and Hillary' allowed uranium to go to Russia in return for money
  • He's referring to Russia's nuclear power agency buying a controlling interest in a Toronto-based company,
  • That company has some mines and mills in the USA.
  • Hillary Clinton was Sec of State at the time, and had no power to approve or reject the deal.
  • Nine other federal agencies were tasked to scrutinize, then sign off on the deal, then president Obama signed it.
  • Finishes the tweet with, "Trump Russia story is a hoax."
  • Senate Intel committee plans to question Trump senior adviser/son-in-law Kushner about his two meetings with Russians in December.
  • The first meeting was with Russian ambassador Kislyak, and was previously acknowledged by the WH.
  • Kushner's second meeting was with Sergey N. Gorkov, head of a Russian bank that was under sanctions from the Obama administration.
  • This second meeting was not disclosed by the WH until very recently.
  • House Intel chief Nunes admits, through a spokesman, to meeting the anonymous source of his purported Trump surveillance documents on the WH grounds.
  • Several more House and Senate members call for Nunes to recuse himself from the investigation into the Trump campaign's ties to Russia.
  • Asked by Bill O'Reilly about the growing number of calls for his ouster, Nunes says, “I’m sure that the Democrats do want me to quit, because they know that I’m quite effective at getting to the bottom of things.”
  • Mexico, a country of 122 million people that buys 98% of its corn from the US, is looking into deals on corn with Argentina and Brazil ahead of the president's threatened trade re-negotiations.
  • Attorney General Sessions threatens all sanctuary cities and noncomplying local governments with the loss of Justice Department grants
  • Sanctuary cities are those municipalities that do not task their law enforcement to actively seek out illegal immigrants for deportation.
Day 68
  • Signs executive order rolling back Obama era regulations that would have closed some of the most polluting coal-burning power plants in favor of promoting solar plants and wind farms.
  • The order is not expected to add many jobs to the coal industry, despite the president's promises, as the mining jobs are being lost to increased mechanization and the availability of cheaper, cleaner fuels such as natural gas.
  • The order will likely make it impossible for the US to meet its agreed-upon carbon dioxide emission standards for the Paris climate accord.
  • It's reported that the WH sent a letter to former acting Attorney General Yates seeking to limit her upcoming testimony on possible Russian ties to the Trump campaign.
  • WH gave "presidential communication privilege" as the reason for limiting what Yates could say to the House Intel committee.
  • Yates was investigating former Trump national security adviser Flynn shortly before the Trump administration fired her.
  • She was set to testify to the House Intel committee today, along with former CIA director John Brennan, before House Intel chief Nunes abruptly postponed their testimony.
  • Later in the day, Nunes cancels all remaining House Intel meetings for the rest of this week.
  • House Intel committee member Himes responds, saying, "“Since Monday, I’m sorry to say, the chairman has ceased to be the chairman of an investigative committee and has been running interference for the Trump White House, cancelling hearings.”
Day 69
  • After taking more heat for cancelling this week's meetings, Nunes says, "it appears like the Democrats aren’t really serious about this investigation,”
  • Interior Secretary Zinke asks "“The Rio Grande, what side of the river are you going to put the wall? We’re not going to put it on our side and cede the river to Mexico. And we’re probably not going to put it in the middle of the river”
  • The Government Accountability Office will soon review security procedures and overall costs of the president's trips to his Florida Mar-A-Lago resort.
  • Speaking at a women’s empowerment event, Trump asks, "Have you heard of Susan B. Anthony? I’m shocked that you’ve heard of her."
  • Trump lies a second time about the New York Times having apologized for their coverage of him.
  • The NYT corrects him again, once again making it clear that they've never apologized for it.
  • The Energy Dept Office of International Climate and Clean Energy has banned the use of the term 'climate change' in its communications.
  • Scott Pruitt, head of the Environmental Protection Agency, reverses a proposed ban on a commonly used agricultural pesticide, chlorpyrifos.
  • The Obama administration had sought to outlaw the pesticide due to mounting scientific evidence that prenatal exposure can pose risks to fetal brain and nervous system development.
Day 70
  • Tweets, "The failing @nytimes has disgraced the media world. Gotten me wrong for two solid years. Change libel laws?"
  • Senate Intel committee starts hearings today on possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russian meddling in the 2016 Election.
  • Former FBI special agent Clinton Watts started testimony by advising the committee to "“Follow the trail of dead Russians,”
  • The committee heard testimony about a massive Russian disinformation campaign, involving at least 15,000 operatives worldwide.
  • The operatives have been writing and spreading false news stories and conspiracy theories online for years.
  • Committee ranking member Mark Warren says he heard testimony that up to a thousand Russian operatives were tasked to move opinions in swing states in 2016.
  • Former national security adviser Flynn tells the FBI he is willing to testify on Russian meddling in exchange for immunity from prosecution.
  • Criticizing former Clinton aides for taking immunity last year, Flynn had said, "When you are given immunity, that means you have probably committed a crime."
  • Many employees of the State Department have not yet met Sec of State Tillerson, as he takes a private elevator to his office every day and almost never holds meetings.
  • Some of the diplomats there report that they've been instructed not to speak to Tillerson, and not to make any eye contact with him.
Notes:
There is a report that WH chief strategist Stephen Bannon confronted the House Freedom Caucus during the Trumpcare vote run-up, saying, ""Guys, look. This is not a discussion. This is not a debate. You have no choice but to vote for this bill,” and that one of the House members replied, "“You know, the last time someone ordered me to do something, I was 18 years old. And it was my daddy. And I didn't listen to him, either." At present, the story is thinly sourced, so it will have to live in the notes.

Also developing but not quite bullet point material: House Intel Chief Nunes reportedly has $50,000--most of his reported net worth--tied up in a winery that has business ties with the largest alcohol distributor in Russia, and the winery has recently pulled the Russian company's name off the distributor list on their website, possibly in response to the recent attention being drawn to it.

Lastly, a bill passed the House and Senate that will allow ISPs to sell your browsing history and location data to advertisers, insurance companies, law enforcement and anyone else who wants it, but the president has not yet signed it.

You can find days 1-60 here up in the sticky
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41...-days-1651105/
03-31-2017 , 08:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
And I wasn't really thinking about just legal troubles when I wrote that post. Forget about the seemingly bad actors like Manafort, Flynn, Stone, etc., but just think of all the people who are in way over their heads trying to untwist Trump's knots; those in the House or Senate or WH. Lots of careers and reputations at stake here too.
In the end, everyone saves themselves.

You saw that with Nixon. He didn't have the votes to ride out the Senate trial. The Representatives, the Senators, they will save themselves.

Quote:
On the night of August 7, 1974, Senators Barry Goldwater and Hugh Scott and Representative John Rhodes met with Nixon in the Oval Office and told him that his support in Congress had all but disappeared. Rhodes told Nixon that he would face certain impeachment when the articles came up for vote in the full House. Goldwater and Scott told the president that there were not only enough votes in the Senate to convict him, but that no more than 15 Senators were willing to vote for acquittal – far fewer than the 34 he needed to avoid removal from office.

And so with impeachment by the House and removal by the Senate all but certain, on the night of August 8, 1974, Nixon took to the airwaves and delivered SP 3-125: Presidential Address Announcing His Intention to Resign the Oval Office. And then on the day of August 9, 1974, Nixon became the first, and so far only, president to resign.
If there is a smoking gun, He is done, as it should be. The Presidency is larger than one man.
03-31-2017 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
No. No competent prosecutor ever gives somebody immunity until they know what they are getting first.
Also as GOAT as The Shield was the ending there was absolutely not how it works.

In general the sort of immunity we're talking about here is just an inability to use Flynn's testimony against him later, not transactional immunity from prosecution for any crimes he reveals on the stand.

The stronger sort of immunity is generally only given to someone who has already been charged with the crime they are getting immunity for, and is conditional on them testifying against whoever it is the authorities really want(e.g. they'll give someone immunity for accessory after the fact to go on the stand and testify that their friend came over covered in blood and asked them to hide a gun).

But if after getting that immunity deal for accessory after the fact, you couldn't just blurt out "also I've been cheating on my taxes for the past 10 years! suckers!" and have immunity from that.
03-31-2017 , 08:23 AM
03-31-2017 , 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Ingram
This doesn't even make sense.
03-31-2017 , 08:33 AM
the reason he says he has a story to tell is because hillary obama! bad (or sick) guys!!
03-31-2017 , 08:35 AM
wurds don't matter
03-31-2017 , 08:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
This doesn't even make sense.
He just doesn't know what's going on. I suspect he has been briefed and thinks the immunity thing isn't in the public eye, so he's trying to pretend that it's his idea.

Dementia of some kind must surely be certain.
03-31-2017 , 08:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Ingram
Schiff's reply.
03-31-2017 , 08:57 AM
I seriously don't think Trump knows what immunity is.
03-31-2017 , 08:59 AM
There are a lot of normal adult words that trump doesn't understand.
03-31-2017 , 09:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
I seriously don't think Trump knows what immunity is.
03-31-2017 , 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman
I seriously don't think Trump knows what immunity is.
I think he wants flynn to catch autism from his immunityisation.

Last edited by tomdemaine; 03-31-2017 at 09:06 AM. Reason: people are saying...
03-31-2017 , 09:06 AM
when drudge start doing this to a R youre in trouble.

SHOCK POLL! top of their website.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/poli...141836529.html
03-31-2017 , 09:25 AM
Since we are on the topic of Flynn, SOFREP did a podcast wth a former intel guy when Flynn resigned last month. (FWIW, the podcast is generally **** so but this episode was really interesting) https://sofrep.com/sofrep-radio/epis...flynn-resigns/

Talks about the difference of being an overt and covert agent. Possibility that the counter intel knew about his connections with Russia.

What are the chances that he was a US asset the entire time? He may be an idiot but at the end of the day he is still a former 3 star with an intel background.
03-31-2017 , 09:32 AM
Where are all the trumpkins? Awval, Dan etc. Why aren't you in here telling us all what a great job Trump is doing? What level chess is he on now?
03-31-2017 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Where are all the trumpkins? Awval, Dan etc. Why aren't you in here telling us all what a great job Trump is doing? What level chess is he on now?
As I've said countless times Clovis, he's flailing. I also note that you rarely respond when I respond your comments. But here I go again...

His 100 days is about to come and go and there's no real meat.

Look at the legislation that the 115th Congress has passed into law. Literally struck down a couple rules/regulations, that's it. Oh they did pass a NASA re-authorization.

I don't get all caught up in the Russia scandal. It's your guys' version of Benghazi. Though I do think it's a good political tool. When there's a smoking gun sure I'll give some thoughts. It's politics, that's all it is. The base is frothing at the mouth. The Democratic party likes that.
03-31-2017 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
What level chess is he on now?
I always loved this explanation. "Sure it seems illogical and juvenile. But that's only because your feeble brain can't access the multiverse like Dr. Strange and Donald Trump."
03-31-2017 , 09:51 AM
Full Senate hearing from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av_IRnDlxKQ
03-31-2017 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Where are all the trumpkins? Awval, Dan etc. Why aren't you in here telling us all what a great job Trump is doing? What level chess is he on now?
Please don't encourage them. The thread has been readable for a minute since raheem left.
03-31-2017 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prana
Please don't encourage them. The thread has been readable for a minute since raheem left.
Rumor is that Trump deported him.
03-31-2017 , 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilu7
Pence surely pardons Trump tho rite? re: the Orange Fuhrer & teh jailz

Gonna be tough when he's in jail too
03-31-2017 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
As I've said countless times Clovis, he's flailing. I also note that you rarely respond when I respond your comments. But here I go again...

His 100 days is about to come and go and there's no real meat.

Look at the legislation that the 115th Congress has passed into law. Literally struck down a couple rules/regulations, that's it. Oh they did pass a NASA re-authorization.

I don't get all caught up in the Russia scandal. It's your guys' version of Benghazi. Though I do think it's a good political tool. When there's a smoking gun sure I'll give some thoughts. It's politics, that's all it is. The base is frothing at the mouth. The Democratic party likes that.

Its actually nothing like Benghazi

The Yemen raid is Trump's Benghazi


Trump and Company committed treason and its going to come crashing down eventually.

      
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