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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: No smocking guns.

05-13-2018 , 10:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I'm not ignoring this at all? My point is that, contra Trolly, there were a lot of voters in important swing states who switched from Obama to Trump and could be persuaded to switch back. The brief for the Democrats is "nominate a candidate who appeals to both the base AND white Midwestern voters without a coherent political philosophy". Obama pulled this off despite being black. Bill Clinton also pulled this off. Elizabeth Warren, I'm not going to finish this sentence.

Race is just one component of what I guess I'd call "cultural allegiance". Obama and Bill Clinton were able to pull off the "I'm one of you" trick and so was Trump. Hillary Clinton was manifestly not "one of them" and wasn't able to hide it. The Democrats need someone who can pull this off. Being a minority or a woman makes it harder, but not impossible. None of this is to deny the importance of coherent political messaging, which is also required.
I don't think "I'm one of you" is at all what Obama or Bill pulled off. What they did was "I'm with you" as in I care about you and your problems. Hillary did "I'm with her." Biggest face palm ever.
05-13-2018 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
But they all thought they'd be cool guys to grab a beer with.
Oh, this is definitely true. I think shallow characteristics are extremely important. Likability is almost certainly more important than policy, any policy. Looks, height for a man, the sound of their voice, all these things are worth a lot of votes. I mean, I'll vote for a short, fat, ugly person and I think I won't even hold it against them, but they'll really have a lot to overcome to win.
05-13-2018 , 11:11 AM
Maybe this is just a coincidence, but every Republican and no Democratic POTUS in the last 66 years was really nationally known much before being elected.
05-13-2018 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
The country doesn't want a progressive.

America is not Canada or Sweden.

Baby steps.

Sometimes you don't need a home run to win. You just need a single.
The country is full of ******s. Progress won't be made by depending on the country to figure it out. It needs to be rammed down their throat the way the right rams down their bs agenda.

Had the chance with Bernie and blew it. Still might have one more chance.

Edit: also had a chance at start of Obama's presidency and blew it then too
05-13-2018 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Maybe this is just a coincidence, but every Republican and no Democratic POTUS in the last 66 years was a household name much before being elected.
Sounds like appeal to emotion for Republican voters if I were forced to explain it away.
05-13-2018 , 11:20 AM
Bernie quoting CardiB is amazing. Me knowing who CardiB is almost as amazing.
05-13-2018 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
That Fox & Friends tweet is beyond parody. What the ****. Like with the exception of the Kim Jong Un one, the rest all read like joke entries. Is there a secret librul in the social media department at Fox?
Yeah I was literally left mouth agape when I saw it.

Also they really missed the mark by not mentioning his real accomplishment of kicking out some brown people.
05-13-2018 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maulaga58
I think it will be even harder to dems to win if he decides to go hard in the paint for marijuana legislation. Nominate Pelosi in 2020 it's a mortal lock he's reelected. She's more unpopular than Hillary
Lol. You’re stupid
05-13-2018 , 11:27 AM
On a somewhat related note I’ve always been curious if the SOROS ilk can name one thing about soros besides his first name, that he’s a billionaire, and something something democrats

Also did you know George Soros isn’t actually his birth name?!?! Think about it mannnnn
05-13-2018 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by markksman
Bernie quoting CardiB is amazing. Me knowing who CardiB is almost as amazing.
The line under Bernie's name says "Tweets by staff." It says something about the workplace not being an oppressive ****hole where every little thing has to be focused grouped, run through legal and comes out completely safe and bland, but Bernie, like me, had probably never heard of CardiB.
05-13-2018 , 11:30 AM
Hard to pick a favorite, but don't sleep on "Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem". I mean, "Rising Approval Ratings" is not an accomplishment, but it is good news for Trump, arguably. The embassy thing is just... what the ****.
05-13-2018 , 11:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen
On a somewhat related note I’ve always been curious if the SOROS ilk can name one thing about soros besides his first name, that he’s a billionaire, and something something democrats
Obviously not. I can't and I'm like 1000x more informed than they are. I remember reading once how he made his money, but I've forgotten. Something fairly prosaic I think? (Just looked it up: hedge funds. OK.)
05-13-2018 , 11:40 AM
When I looked up Soros a while back I was surprised that he was actually more politically active and influential than I really could have guessed. Although he does spend a lot on campaigns, that's not a big part if it. He put $18 billion of his money into a political foundation at one point and billions more in smaller contributions.

Not that one guy having that much influence is necessarily great, but it's not like the Koch money. The Koch's expect their political contributions to be profitable for them personally during their lifetimes.

Last edited by microbet; 05-13-2018 at 11:46 AM.
05-13-2018 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
- These voters have no idea how complex politics and society is (which is why they didn't care about Clinton's 20 years of experience), so avoid any policy area where your policy is more complicated than your opponents'. An example would be law and order, where the Republican position is "lock the crims up!" and the Democratic position is "well, #actually..." and goes on for several pages.
I agree with your blueprint, except for this. Dems shouldn't be avoiding areas where their policy is more complicated than their opponents - that's almost every issue. They need to boil all their policies down to 3-4 simple sentences that everyone can understand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by corvette24
Also, am I just nuts for thinking Al Franken might have a path back to the national political stage?
Yes. Unless that path involves somehow proving all of the allegations false, which seems virtually impossible, you're nuts. Especially as it pertains to the 2020 POTUS race.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Dems needs to run a center left candidate. One who does not try to push any major social change or wedge issue.
That seems an awful lot like 2016. Hillary is center-left, and her campaign strategically avoided the issues. ****, maybe we should just run a Republican? Is Kasich center-left enough for you, Clovis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
America is going through a massive shift to the right. Of course we all know, based on demographics, this is the last gasp of a dying generation but one that will not be gone in 2020. 2020 is not the time to push for major change in the social fabric. It's a time to run a likable, competent, socially acceptable candidate who won't piss people off. One that exudes civility.
No, no, no. Now is the time to inspire people to go vote for someone who can make positive changes. This isn't about winning over intelligent moderates, it's about turning out voters who don't always vote. You don't do that with milquetoast center-left competence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clovis8
Also, and perhaps most importantly, dems cannot run someone with a long history being churned through the right-wing meat grinder.

The people in the thread arguing 2016 was HRCs fault are simply delusional. She lost for ONE REASON. The GOP had been working for her defeat since the early 90s.
This was a huge part of it, but she also ran a ****ty campaign. This would have been why she lost to anyone else... Trump she still should have beaten.

Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
I don't think "I'm one of you" is at all what Obama or Bill pulled off. What they did was "I'm with you" as in I care about you and your problems. Hillary did "I'm with her." Biggest face palm ever.
Great, great point.
05-13-2018 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coasterbrad
I know there were rumors a while back of Tulsi Gabbard running. A Tulsi/Bernie ticket would be pretty great imo. Of course the DNC will just push through a super milquetoast guy and run an anti-Trump campaign instead of focusing on issues, but it's fun to dream.

ETA: she's progressive, but not far enough left to be attacked as a socialist. She's former military. She's not unattractive so there is a shot of getting some Trump voters to just vote for her cause she makes their dick tingle.
You should really read up on what Tulsi believes.

She would be the worst pick of everyone mentioned in this thread thus far.
05-13-2018 , 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Hard to pick a favorite, but don't sleep on "Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem". I mean, "Rising Approval Ratings" is not an accomplishment, but it is good news for Trump, arguably. The embassy thing is just... what the ****.
As far as his base is concerned, that is an accomplishment. They think the embassy being in Tel Aviv was Obama-era appeasement of Muslims, who they hate, for no good reason, because OBVIOUSLY Jerusalem is the capital. This reverses Obama's position, sticks it to brown people, and really nothing else matters.

Never mind that it wasn't like it was Obama's idea to put it in Tel Aviv, and ignore any of the actual facts or nuance. For the average Trump supporter, this was a "Hell yeah, he tells it like it is!" accomplishment.
05-13-2018 , 11:51 AM
Hello there teaser.

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/...122564609?s=19
05-13-2018 , 11:59 AM
Hey Suzzer,

While you're trapped in Nicaragua behind protests we need more updates when you have the chance to post!
05-13-2018 , 12:08 PM
I posted in the travel forum thread. Here's my FB post from the Pan-American Traveler Forum, I added some stuff.

Quote:
Adventure travel update! I'm currently stuck in Bluefields on the sparsely populated Atlantic side of Nicaragua for an extra 5 days (hopefully not more) due to mass protests and roadblocks that basically block all car traffic from the Pacific to Atlantic side. The roadblock at Nueva Guinea went up at noon Thursday. I showed up at 4pm.

If my flight from Corn Island hadn't been delayed from morning to afternoon - I probably would have just made it. Or just missed it by like 5 minutes, which would have been really painful.

I spent the first night in my car along with everyone else - hoping they'd open up at some point. Then in the morning I gave up and went back to Bluefields. The minimum I heard for the roadblock was 2 days. There seems to be a word-of-mouth schedule to these things, but it changes a lot and no one really knows for sure.

The only thing I know for sure is there's a Managua/Bluefields bus trapped in Bluefields. When that moves I know the road will be open. I've got a local guy here keeping me up-to-date, for which I'm buying him a few meals. He also told me there's no panga boats to La Rama - not that that would help me much. Although he told me there were no flights to Managua, which is wrong. But he knows the panga captains so I think he's accurate on that.

Nueva Guinea to Bluefields is about a 2 hour drive but through some gnarly construction that gave me a flat tire the first time. I have since aired down to 20psi and been fine. This time it was raining on the super-slick clay mud and they were towing cars uphill to get through it. So there's another fun factor to worry about - might get trapped by the rains.

I went back to the front lines today and saw all the same people - no one's moved - even people in nice cars. The line was actually shorter than when I left the previous morning - as like me plenty of people gave up and went somewhere else. There are makeshift campsites all over the place. Multiple people said 3 more days. So I came back to Bluefields again. So frustrating because it's like a 5 minute walk from where my car is stuck to where I want to be. They don't block foot traffic, bicycles or horses - only motorcycles, cars, buses and trucks.

Myself and my car get a lot of attention in that line as the only gringo and with USA plates - and people get drunker and want to joke around with me more as the night goes on. It's good natured and I'm sure it's most likely safe, but I felt a little like a sitting duck. I did see my drunk neighbor who kept calling me gringo and was making me a little nervous from the night before. He had gotten a hotel room and cleaned up, and was very nice during the day.

It's hard to tell the spectators and trapped people from the protestors - maybe that's by design. Except for a couple guys walking around with makeshift rocket launchers. They fire these throughout the night as fireworks - but were also firing them at cops (and getting shot at for it) in the protests a few weeks ago.

So by my guess it's maybe 30 protestors, a few of them armed with glorified fireworks. I didn't see any other weapons. But I did see some people in the back of a truck with a serious military rifle - driving towards me, about 20km away from the scene this morning. No idea what that was about. If everyone who's stuck just banded together I bet they could push these guys off. But maybe then hidden weapons come out or something. I've heard most of the other roadblocks at least let people trickle though - not this one.

Im going to try to fly to Managua tomorrow then go see Granada - just for something to do. Then hopefully fly back and drive my car across the country on Wednesday. Hopefully civil war doesn't break out while I'm out there.

https://www.vostv.com.ni/nacionales/...-en-nicaragua/
05-13-2018 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuserounder
I agree with your blueprint, except for this. Dems shouldn't be avoiding areas where their policy is more complicated than their opponents - that's almost every issue. They need to boil all their policies down to 3-4 simple sentences that everyone can understand.
The problem is Republicans know how to create a forgery of the same quality. Then all the undecided voters look at both statements having no idea which is genuinely backed by substance and which is a crock of ****. The catch 22, as you pointed out, is any longer and it loses the attention of your average person. I honestly don't know how to overcome this, short of having some sort of Snopes label on every political statement in real time.

I'm sorry but no matter how anyone twists it, Republicans are just better at cheating. Otherwise America would have a Democratic POTUS for 16 years to every 8 years a Republican served.
05-13-2018 , 12:17 PM
Suzzer,

I saw that yesterday and the travel forum is obv better than this thread. I guess if you're posting about Trump that's enough of an indication that nothing too dramatic happened to you.
05-13-2018 , 12:19 PM
Nope just waiting for my afternoon flight to Managua.
05-13-2018 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
The problem is Republicans know how to create a forgery of the same quality. Then all the undecided voters look at both statements having no idea which is genuinely backed by substance and which is a crock of ****. The catch 22, as you pointed out, is any longer and it loses the attention of your average person. I honestly don't know how to overcome this, short of having some sort of Snopes label on every political statement in real time.

I'm sorry but no matter how anyone twists it, Republicans are just better at cheating. Otherwise America would have a Democratic POTUS for 16 years to every 8 years a Republican served.
Elections are mostly about principles and aspirations put into pithy statements. The well thought out policies are required a) for the, still important, relatively few who want more substance and b) so that they can actually achieve something if they get elected.
05-13-2018 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Our House
The problem is Republicans know how to create a forgery of the same quality. Then all the undecided voters look at both statements having no idea which is genuinely backed by substance and which is a crock of ****. The catch 22, as you pointed out, is any longer and it loses the attention of your average person. I honestly don't know how to overcome this, short of having some sort of Snopes label on every political statement in real time.

I'm sorry but no matter how anyone twists it, Republicans are just better at cheating. Otherwise America would have a Democratic POTUS for 16 years to every 8 years a Republican served.
That's where authenticity comes in. Sure people can be fooled, but they mostly aren't. The lawyers in this forum can "it depends on what the definition of 'is' is" and "show me the actual statute" and "but that's not a crime" and "where's the quid pro quo" forever, but just don't put someone up who is full of **** to the core just because they are smart enough to argue that they aren't. People trust the bald faced lying carnival barker more than that.
05-13-2018 , 12:31 PM
Chiefsplanet has decided they've really hated McCain all along, as do all veterans. http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=315321

      
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