Nice turnabout. John McCain will be cursing the housing crash for the rest of his natural born life. (And whoever it was who convinced him to pick Sarah Palin.)

nice

According to Mason-Dixon Obama has a huge problem in PA.

Obama 47%
McCain 43%

But then again, they always have Obama with smaller leads than everyone else.

Also on the downside, McCain is still moving up in the R2000 poll which is weighted extremely heavily to Democrats. Obama is now only +5 there.

On the plus side, more CNN polls were released and these are even better than the others...

Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43
North Carolina: Obama 52, McCain 46
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46

And Mason-Dixon also has McCains home state close as well...

McCain 48, Obama 44, Undecided 6

The Mason Dixon MOE is 4% which is rather high. Any chance on getting those crosstabs? They've been harping on this poll all morning on Morning Joe and its starting to tilt me because they harp on this ONE poll like its gospel while ignoring every other bit of information which simply points to a completely different picture. I mean does anyone really believe there are 10% of true undecideds at this late point right before the election? And if there were how likely are those undecideds to sit it out? pretty damn likely.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/bu...l?ref=business

Exxon record profits. We all know the only way exxon makes monies is by stealing from the proletariat. God damn bourgoise. I hope Obama will fix this when he obtains power.

I mentioned this many pages ago, but I'll repeat it:

Seems to me that the only way of reconciling the trackers with the battleground state polls is the following:

McCain is gaining in the non-competitive states which - because they are noncompetitive - are not being polled frequently (or recently). Indeed, when you consider the content of McCain's "message," it seems understandable that his increased numbers could merely reflect bringing home the base.

Al Giordano notes that McCain's recent attacks seem largely focused on winning the Cuban and Jewish vote in Florida.

McCain at 43% in PA looks pretty standard. Wake me when McCain is polling above 45% there.

Obama +5 in Rasmussen today in their tracker (as I predicted earlier this morning, Sunday was a big day for McCain and has now rolled off. And by "I predicted", I mean "some bloggers predicted, and I repeated that prediction here and took credit for it").

no he means he has gotten to the final table 100s of times and gotten KK every single time all in as an 85 percent favorite. Then he loses to some godddamn idiot. Poker analogies are usually horrible, but this feeling describes the situation perfectly. You know your guy is a *heavy favorite*. But you get one shot for it to come through, and if it doesn't, you are screwed. There is no redress and you are done for. Hours (months and months) of owning = nothing.

Selzer poll in Indiana:

Obama 46
McCain 45

When you look at the money the RNC or McCain campaign dropped at Intrade just for perception, you have to wonder what they would spend for a good poll at this juncture ? Obviously dog bites man with some lol polls. I think even the major polls would be susceptible though, maybe for a future favor or access. Newspapers and parent companies of the big tv stations are getting killed right now financially. Just skew a polls weighting and collect. Not saying it's the case here, but sometimes it's beyond suspicious. Not saying Dems wouldn't do it either in a year they need to. National trackers seem good today like Dvaut predicted. I wish the election was on a Friday, because McCain polls really well on weekends it seems. Maybe just old people at home. At this point though it doesn't matter. I just want to run it up.

I was waiting for her to go back to IN.

Fox news is just hilarious. They call themselves fair and balanced 60 times per 5 minutes while interviewing Tom Delay, who calls Barack Obama a radical 50 times.




*******.

McCain robocalling Arizona. Very Mondalean.

It would be ok if the oil companies weren't allowed to use our army for free.

Undecided chatter time imo:

There seems to be a meme, mostly perpetuated by the right and reinforced by McIntruff's memo which basically asserts McCain is going to wafflecrush among undecideds.

Chuck Todd, someone who I think we all agree is one of the better political analysts, agrees with the McCain campaign, and says he thinks they will break for McCain, something to the tune of 70-30/75-25 or perhaps more. From the First Read team:

Nate, on the other hand, says not so fast my friend -- there's no reason to think they'll break for McCain -- *best case* scenario is undecideds are worth a point for McCain:

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal throws his hat in the ring on this debate:

I really like what Franklin did; is it really correct to assume McCain is going to pwn undecideds? I'm thinking that's not as solid a proposition as Chuck Todd thinks. You can see more data here on Franklin's model for calculating which way undecideds will break:

But what happens when we look at just the undecideds?

Politico agrees with Nate and Mark:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15074.html

Lay off Big oil.

Back when Dick Cheney had his top secret energy task force, companies that are actually profitable like Exxon were discriminated against in favor of giving a voice to Enron.

I'm sure if Exxon had been granted more influence and tax cuts, Cheney would have been correct when he wrote,

we have developed a national energy policy designed to help bring together business, government, local communities and citizens to promote dependable, affordable and environmentally sound energy for the future.

Setting aside any demographic analysis, I see no reason to assume that either side would dominate the late-deciders.

One would think that both candidates have, by now, picked off all the low-lying fruit (i.e., solidified the support they probably always should have expected from their own parties). So presumably the remaining undecideds are predominantly those who identify as independent.

Now, some may assume that the independents tend to be more conservative and GOP-leaning overall, since the Democratic party-identification is now stronger than in past years. This assumption, I suppose, is based upon the proposition that the increased Democratic registrants were previously independents, thus suggesting the remainders are those more apt to vote Republican.

But I think this reasoning is flawed: just because prior left-leaning Independents have generally moved to the left does not mean that that the remaining right-leaning independents will ultimately move to the right. This latter group could now be squarely in the middle, and be just as likely to move in either direction. (Note, I am using the terms left, right and middle really as a substitute for the parties.)

If I had to guess, I would guess that the majority of the undecideds would end up in McCain's camp, mostly because my hunch is that a majority of them are undecided precisely because they have been unable to resolve some doubts about Obama. And I further speculate that these doubts will remain a problem for them to the end. But there are surely others who are undecided for other reasons.

So in the end, I tend to agree with Nate that the undecideds will favor McCain, but not by an overwhelming number.

Hadn't read that, thanks.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post about how one key mistake the left made in setting expectations for 2004 was assuming, without empirical evidence, that undecideds would break decidedly against the incumbent, therefore Bush's final numbers in the polls were static while Kerry's were under-counted by a few percent once the undecideds broke clearly for Kerry. I don't recall the tone of 2000, but it seems like one of the favored memes of the candidate that appears down is that undecideds will all break their way for some reason, even if that isn't borne out in any of the best guesses we can make based on empirical evidence.

It actually was true that late-deciders broke against Bush, but the margin was so small it didn't matter.

Once the Fed's printing presses finally melt, $250k will be right around the poverty line imo.

hey, remember when Saxby Chambliss won his Senate seat by morphing the face of his opponent who lost three limbs in Vietnam into Osama Bin Laden's?

“The other folks are voting”

Searched and didn't find this.

Cavuto blasting McCain on FBC

http://crooksandliars.com/john-amato...conomic-matter

Right wing blogs reach new and hilarious heights:

Barack Obama is actually the illegitimate son of Malcolm X

Those new Mason-Dixon polls make me curious about Arizona now...

They've got Obama PA +4, MN +8, probably biased Rep by 3-4 points. Now they also have AZ McCain +4? Hmm...