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And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney And Here. We. Go. 2012 Presidential Election: Obama v. Romney

10-31-2012 , 03:24 PM
or "that doesn't make sense one of them would win every time" for the ironing
10-31-2012 , 03:26 PM
Or like "this question is rigged, it doesn't even ask me if Mitt Romney will win! How do I vote for Romney?"
10-31-2012 , 03:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
You can't just look at the D/R spread number as some kind of gospel. A constant theme found in a lot of polls this year (see the article I linked to earlier) is people who used to identify as GOPers and who will probably vote for Romney telling pollsters they aren't GOPers. Some are "moderates" but many, when profiled, are telling pollsters they're exiting the party because it's perceived the GOP has moved too far to the center (ostensibly Tea Party types, essentially).

The result: the number of GOP identifiers is low, making the spread between D/Rs look wide as there's a high number of reliable GOPers getting counted as independents.

Summary: A pollster claiming the D/R spread will be the same in 2012 as it was in 2008 is not saying the electorate will be the same as 2008. The much tighter margins between Obama/Romney relative to Obama/McCain demonstrates that. This is important. Right-wingers should read this, internalize it, and then stop being like "D+x?!?! WTFBBQ" so we can talk about more interesting things, like how many Romney-bought cans of Spaghetti O's Christie is going to eat this weekend.
2010 was the high point of Tea Party activism. If there was any year where they'd refuse to identify themselves as GOP that would be the year yet it had an even D/R split anyways. This election will definitely be closer to 2010 than 2008.
10-31-2012 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
You don't pass the ball up by 10 points in the 4th quarter.
10-31-2012 , 03:28 PM
that WI poll from marquette was big turnaround. obama had like double digit lead in late sept, then 2 weeks ago they had obama up only 1. that poll nailed the recall and are respected in WI. anyways O up 8 put WI totally out of reach imo.

the national journal poll, up 5, that seems like a good poll just from looking at the words Princeton and big sample. u cant deny the movement of 5 is nice for obama.

national journal made the rcp ave. thats gotta hurt some mitt heads seeing that big 5 going other way like gallup used to vs O.
10-31-2012 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
2010 was the high point of Tea Party activism. If there was any year where they'd refuse to identify themselves as GOP that would be the year yet it had an even D/R split anyways. This election will definitely be closer to 2010 than 2008.
I'll bet you 100$ that the final numbers are closer to 2008 than 2010 wrt D/R split.
10-31-2012 , 03:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
Or like "this question is rigged, it doesn't even ask me if Mitt Romney will win! How do I vote for Romney?"
"I know how to do the voting!"
10-31-2012 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
People wouldn't choose A because their response would be:

"The election is only held once. What kind of mumbo jumbo is this to think about 4 elections!"
Wait, do some people really think 75% favorite means 75% of the vote?
10-31-2012 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
2010 was the high point of Tea Party activism. If there was any year where they'd refuse to identify themselves as GOP that would be the year yet it had an even D/R split anyways. This election will definitely be closer to 2010 than 2008.
I was just speculating on the cause of drop in Republican identifiers. It could be some failure in the party ID question to get these people to say they're Republicans. Or some other variable. Hard to say. The phenomenon is manifest in plenty of polls over this season regardless of the cause.
10-31-2012 , 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjoefish
I'll bet you 100$ that the final numbers are closer to 2008 than 2010 wrt D/R split.
Before people start making bets on this let's establish the objective source of the results to determine the winner of the bet.
10-31-2012 , 03:35 PM
What would you suggest? LDO figuring out where to get the final metrics from is part of making the bet...
10-31-2012 , 03:37 PM
One of my volunteers brought me meatloaf, salad and fruit for lunch. It was amazing.
10-31-2012 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Before people start making bets on this let's establish the objective source of the results to determine the winner of the bet.
National exit polls ldo.

Problem is unfortunately they went from doing exit polling in all 50 states as they have for the last few decades to only doing like 20 of the "swing states" IIRC.
10-31-2012 , 03:39 PM
I finally made it to the polls and voted today me and 5 other people all went for obama. we had to wait outside for a half hour before we could vote due to a bomb scare.
10-31-2012 , 03:39 PM
rjoe, shorted romneyFL on intrade today. counting on you to pull me through
10-31-2012 , 03:41 PM
I don't have a source but I am not the one challenging people's opinions by wanting to bet. If you want to challenge people by with a wager tell us how we determine who wins

.
10-31-2012 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
This is proof that canned food isn't optimal. It's not proof that the Red Cross didn't want his donation.

Please provide proof that the Red Cross did not want Romney's donations and not just that they would have preferred something else.
my god, not sure what level you're trying to play here, but it's about the bottom of the intelligence barrel.

think about the cause, not some angle you want to push. An organization like the RC has access to bulk shipments of whatever they need for any catastrophe. A can of whatever from some deluded do gooder has the ability to create more harm than good. Now if this was your average idiot, then sure head on down to the local store and get a bag of groceries to donate.....


BUT WAIT, this is Mitt Romney, the MORMON we are dealing with. This is very relevant. In Salt Lake City the MORMONS have a warehouse that would put COSTCO to shame. They are the experts in helping out their fellow man in times of need. That last thing they would want is some yokel to show up with that bag of groceries you've been pushing. They instead use the tiding system to buy, wholesale in bulk (BECAUSE ITS MORE EFFICIENT AND CHEAPER) from the cash donated.

So, RMoney not only royally ****ed up in his political calculus, but went against his own business acumen, and that of his own religion.
10-31-2012 , 03:43 PM
Mike Francesa‏@MikeFrancesaNY

Da stawm rooned Mittrom Knee's chances to win. It was gonna be a razah thin election. Ba Rocko Bomber is bein a leadah.
10-31-2012 , 03:44 PM
10-31-2012 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by terp
rjoe, shorted romneyFL on intrade today. counting on you to pull me through
RIVERMAN CANNOT QUOTE THIS POST
10-31-2012 , 03:45 PM
Jeeeee-sus. Fringe right-wing Presidential candidate Randall Terry managed to get an ad played on TV in Pittsburgh that features footage of decapitations and beheaded corpses. It's since been banned by YouTube.

"A vote for Obama helps Muslims murder Christians and Jews. I'm Randall Terry and I approve this message."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...usaolp00000003

You can see the video on his website. NSFW, obv. Amazing, shocking, and sad that this is allowed to be shown as an ad on US TV. ("How bad can it be?".... bad, very bad.)

http://www.terryforpresident.com/

Last edited by Hamish McBagpipe; 10-31-2012 at 03:50 PM.
10-31-2012 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatkid
Would be more realistic if FEMA got there 3 days later and was pulling his drowned body out of the car.
10-31-2012 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
I don't have a source but I am not the one challenging people's opinions by wanting to bet. If you want to challenge people by with a wager tell us how we determine who wins

.
Unfortunately when making bets on stuff like polling I don't get to just dictate which source we use. As much as I'd want it to be that way I'm sure the other party wouldn't want to agree. We can work it out via PM if you're interested in betting.

ETA: Seems like your jimmies are rustled for even suggesting the bet though
10-31-2012 , 03:47 PM
so sad. trending on http://www.foxnews.com/politics/index.html

1. libya libya libya of course
but #3" Romney opens Up 7 Point Lead As Electoral Map Begins to Shift". (that old gallup poll from a few weeks ago.) it really is just oh poor dears like a photo of an ex who broke up with u.
10-31-2012 , 03:49 PM
Watching Biden give a rally. Whoever said he wasn't a good political speaker was wrong. He is leagues ahead of Paul Ryan as an effective running mate.

      
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