I look at it this way:
A) Whoever voted McCain last time will be voting Romney
B) Students and minorities will not turn out the same numbers as 4 years ago. Half the college kids that do want a job and will not vote Obama
C) by picking Paul Ryan,this will open up Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan to Romney. This also appeals to people in Iowa since Wisconsin is a rural state
D) Colorado, Florida and Virginia have GOP DNA, they'll go back to normal
E) Nevada has a number of Mormons that live there. I wouldn't be surprised if some even come to Nevada from Utah to help swing the state. (Shady and illegal, I know)
F) Pennsylvania has a huge coal industry. It's in their best interest for anyone living there to vote Romney

All equal Romney landslide

sexy erin burnett just said it's good the florida race is so close. it's good for the countdown.

Now that Trump has brought you back on track topicwise, I have to say I can't believe that during the whole "what does a president have to know about world geography/leaders" derail noone posted this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU_aw3SCUV8
I am very disappoint!

Damn you Wookie it is like you have a gimmick to make me look bad

alternative universe

1/8 of jobs in ohio are tied to auto industry. mitt wanted to bankrupt it and wanted private funding. he wanted a real 11 and fees and such for banks and lawyer and then when nobody has the billions, boom ch 7 and mitts pals get paid anyways. bush wasnt in the check writing business but he knew they needed $ fast big government money. no time to dally around with guarnetees and bs when nobody has cash. man mitt would have ruined d town and ohio

Yeah, what happened to all the manufactured bs on libya on the right? Romney should have pummeled him libyagate, No?

Seems like an awful lot of huffing and puffing from the wingnut machinery to not have romney nail him in the foreign policy debate on libya.

that libya **** had legs and hurt obama. hope its over. right has no shame. rice was just sayin what cia talking point said. confusing situation, mistakes made, but they politicized it. and won that battle. hope its over

with that off the table, that nagging drag on obama will be gone and now everybody knows who is the man on foreign policy. so that can be a tie breaker for undecideds. imo.

THIS IS WHAT SANER REPUBLICANS WHO DONT THINK IT IS A GIANT CONSPIRACY BELIEVE

Pro move here is, like Romney, to have no plan and be pretty up front that you don't intend to ever come up with one.

and gentlemen, quantitative analysis has now been debunked and killed forever. thank you for your contribution and i look forward to more of the same brilliance.

If this is a sane repub, the less sane ones must be a hoot.

The intrade stuff is weird. AFAIK nothing came out today. The Trump story, either version(coke dealer, divorce), is nothing. The batch of polls was the same as ever. RCP's "no toss-up" poll average still has Obama winning. The divergence between Intrade and the books is getting wide enough to motivate me to figure out how to deposit so I can arb it.

i broke the intrade i broke the real possibility of an ec/pop split i broke the blue plan story u know after obama and the press covered it. u guys are so lucky im here.

living in ohio, i've gotten 3 polling calls in the last couple days. each time, i've answered differently.

just putting it to the man over here.

I realize this is something many GOPers might not want to dwell on, but a big chunk of Demographic Cohort A here will not be voting for Romney, or anyone else for that matter, this time around.

The only age bracket McCain won in 2008 was 65+, he got 53% of the olds.

for a while today it was 56 - 44 on intrade for both the general election and Ohio, now Ohio is down 7 on the day, -4 in the last hour to 51-49ish

wiper u might get a blue plan in the mail. lucky.

Intrade is the outlier now afaik... Pinnacle hasn't moved much and still favors Obama like 2:1, yes?

uhhh it's not moving past 50% dude.

****'s that?

it better be worth it for seeing the same 3 political ads during every commercial break on every channel.

pinny moved towards romney when the limits went from 5k to 20k earlier, but they've gradually fell back since.

My only other theory behind the movement is the stock market plunge today.

Donald Trump to release Barrack Obama bombshell on Wednesday:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82701.html

Could be that, could be a reaction to a few national polls that edged towards romney.