Brexit Referendum - Page 571 - Politics and Economics

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Brexit Referendum

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01-24-2019 , 06:39 AM

#14251

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 66,448

Rejoining == joining as a new member.

New member requirements are..... anyone? anyone?

Google 'Copenhagen Criteria' if you're not sure.

01-24-2019 , 06:39 AM

#14252

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

? I translated the proposition about extension vs crashing out into a bet on the relative likelihoods for you.

We do have information at the relative likelihoods so we can recognise a good bet. i.e betting on 'extension' over 'crashing' at evens would be a very good bet - anyone want to take the other side?

We don't have good information at all. There are many twists and turns that can yet happen, and unknown events that we can't yet conceive too.
But in general if most of the sheep and donkeys are on one side, I'll take the other.

01-24-2019 , 06:40 AM

#14253

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,935

I think he knows the UK doesn't have the Euro.

01-24-2019 , 06:42 AM

#14254

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by diebitter

Rejoining == joining as a new member.

New member requirements are..... anyone? anyone?

Ask Czechia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary etc which currency they use.

01-24-2019 , 06:45 AM

#14255

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

If most of the sheep and donkeys are on one side, I'll take the other.

I'll take that as meaning you won't touch the other side of my bet with a barge pole. oh well

Hopefully you can now see that you don't have to know the likelihood of A or B to have a meaningful likelihood of A/B.

01-24-2019 , 06:46 AM

#14256

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

+ev betting means having a model better than the other side. If you have a better model then favorites are frequently under priced - particualrly in low volume markets. Anyway this is all a bit ot.

If you're using models, of course. Otherwise, no.

01-24-2019 , 06:49 AM

#14257

PartyGirlUK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 23,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

The EU might be well be open to the idea that that rejoining quickly is so good for them that they will allow it on the old terms. I doubt they would insist on making it impossible by getting nitty about the Euro/etc

Agreed

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

Where I think you would be more right to be suspicious is of the UK and it's pesky remainers who may just start arguing that rejoining quickly is the best way forwards.

Assuming the UK leaves in May on terms similar to the current deal, what year do you think the UK would try to rejoin? The Tories won't campaign to rejoin basically for at least like thirty years and I'm skeptical Labour would either. Which leaves us either with either a Lib Dem PM (my wet dream) or maybe Lib Dems/SNP insisting on a new referendum as part of a coalition deal. They both seem kinda unlikely to me for at least 10 years. Like if there's a 2022 election I couldn't see rejoining the EU be a thing. More likely Europhiles will run on moving to a Norway type deal.

01-24-2019 , 06:49 AM

#14258

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 66,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

Ask Czechia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary etc which currency they use.

erm google 'Copenhagen Criteria' for some knowledge.

Let me assist

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en

"Becoming a member of the EU is a complex procedure which does not happen overnight. Once an applicant country meets the conditions for membership, it must implement EU rules and regulations in all areas.

Any country that satisfies the conditions for membership can apply. These conditions are known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ and include a free-market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro."

No need to thank me.

01-24-2019 , 06:50 AM

#14259

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

Don't patronise me.

I'd take "no deal at any time" at around 8.0

01-24-2019 , 06:51 AM

#14260

Csaba

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,131

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

I don't like any bet without a good price.

I backed Liverpool pre season at 5 or 6 mainly because everyone in pubs and forums was saying that city were a shoe in and were ignoring how strong Liverpool looked at times last season and how hard it is for teams to win the league back to back. Similarly with trump and Brexit. You can only win in the long run by opposing the market. Backing favourites is the quickest way to the poor house. *

Pool may well still lose but it was a good bet nevertheless.

* with one general exception

Looking at it in hindsight Trump was the easiest value bet ever. The market had him at ~10% to win whilst 538 had him at ~30%. The fact I stuck 20 quid on Hilary shows why the only betting I've ever shown a consistent profit on is arbitrage and scalping the Betfair markets.

01-24-2019 , 06:55 AM

#14261

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by Csaba

Yup. Some people in Politics lost literal fortunes. I sometimes wonder what happened to them. Really, people on a poker site of all places should know better than to think something's a dead cert.

01-24-2019 , 06:55 AM

#14262

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

If you're using models, of course. Otherwise, no.

You're using a model whether you realise it or not. Your Liverpool bet used a simple one about information pricing.

As for twists and turn, there's plenty to come in the premiership but Spurs are clearly more likely to win it than Everton.

01-24-2019 , 06:56 AM

#14263

SiMor29

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,905

The backlash from slovenly, bald, beer swilling gammons and working class northern pensioners should brexit be cancelled will be swift and decisive. It is something that should be avoided at all costs, even if it means walking the country off a cliff.

01-24-2019 , 06:59 AM

#14264

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

Yup. Some people in Politics lost literal fortunes. I sometimes wonder what happened to them. Really, people on a poker site of all places should know better than to think something's a dead cert.

It's a problem of only listening to your own side (as well as a problem of wish bias).

Really important in politics as well as betting - big danger for remainers has been almost exclusively listening to remainers - gives an extremely distorted picture.

01-24-2019 , 07:05 AM

#14265

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by diebitter

The Copenhagen Criteria dates back to 1993, and several states have joined the EU since then without adopting the Euro.

Also, curiously this related site https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-e...-membership_en fails to even mention the Euro as a condition of membership.

Last edited by jalfrezi; 01-24-2019 at 07:14 AM. Reason: Conditions of membership page doesn't mention Euro once!

01-24-2019 , 07:05 AM

#14266

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 48,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

Don't patronise me.

I'd take "no deal at any time" at around 8.0

Sorry, You didn't seem to understand relative likelihoods when you responded about good bets

If you agree that 'extension beyond March' can be a meaningful favorite over 'crashing our with no deal in March' then we're good.

In the same way that Spurs winning the premiership can be a meaningful favorite over Everton winning it.

01-24-2019 , 07:06 AM

#14267

SootedPowa

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 3,938

Betting on the Remain vote winning cost a lot of people hard earned £££ as well. On the day of the vote itself there was a massive gamble in the afternoon - Hills had a coupon printed the day before showing Remain win as 2/7 - which they stopped taking bets on sharpish. Exchange prices crashed and even Farage conceded on TV. Was definitely one of the most volatile betfair markets I have seen.

01-24-2019 , 07:10 AM

#14268

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by chezlaw

If you never backed at odds on I think you'd only be making a relatively small mistake.

The reason remainers find it hard to listen to leavers (and I've tried many times after work, believe me) is that they usually can't articulate their reasons for wanting to leave into language that remainers can parse.

It's almost as if their calls for the unicorn of "sovereignty" (a term none seem to be able to define without contradicting themselves) were a mask for something else.

01-24-2019 , 07:11 AM

#14269

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by SootedPowa

True, but that's trading, not gambling (though it can be argued it's just a subset).

01-24-2019 , 07:12 AM

#14270

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 66,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

can you blame them not to mention one of the EU's biggest wet fart ideas?

It's undercover, in the words 'monetary union'

01-24-2019 , 07:14 AM

#14271

SootedPowa

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 3,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

If you never backed at odds on I think you'd only be making a relatively small mistake.

I prefer longshots but odds on can represent great value sometimes.

Here is a William Hill "Your Odds" pre season bet I put on in the summer @ 1.50 (1/2). Was overpriced by quite a margin imo

Liverpool to get over 70.5 PL points and Wolves to get over 25.5 PL points 2018/19 @ 1.50

01-24-2019 , 07:14 AM

#14272

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 66,448

Quote:

Originally Posted by jalfrezi

Lol, yep, we know you don't understand the word 'sovereignty' even when given the dictionary definition.

Is the concept of a state governing itself just too much for you?

01-24-2019 , 07:18 AM

#14273

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by diebitter

can you blame them not to mention one of the EU's biggest wet fart ideas?

It's undercover, in the words 'monetary union'

lol so dishonest.

I cite a sister page to the page you cite, and all of a sudden IT'S A CONSPIRACY!

01-24-2019 , 07:19 AM

#14274

diebitter

Grotesquely Handsome

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 66,448

No, I was having a little gentle kid about it.

Calm down, or I'll put you on the naughty step again.

01-24-2019 , 07:19 AM

#14275

jalfrezi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 16,788

Quote:

Originally Posted by diebitter

Lol, yep, we know you don't understand the word 'sovereignty' even when given the dictionary definition.

Is the concept of a state governing itself just too much for you?

It's repeatedly been too much for you to not contradict yourself over before running away for a day or two.

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