Don't get complacent about the voters. Tories under a new harder brexit leader would pose a huge problem for labour.

It's the biggest danger now (and a horrific risk - hard brexit followed by a full term of a tory government) so let's not talk ourselves into it.

Euro elections are PR, general elections are FPTP, hence why UKIP & (sadly) Lib Dems are a minimal threat in the latter.

Tories best play is to stop talking about Brexit ASAP, nominate a Leaver who is able to i) blame the lack of a glorious unicorn Brexit on Theresa May & ii) insist (correctly) Britain is tired of talking about Brexit and it's time to move on.

I think most Brexiters are actually aware of this. None of them challenged May after she lost seats to Magic Grandpa, they do not want the responsibility of Brexit (recall Boris went AWOL for 24 hours after the referendum). For all the talk of forcing May out - what the **** is Raab's plan if he becomes leader? Parliament won't allow No Deal, Tories won't run on No Deal, the ERG has no plan other than to blame everyone else.

By this point I genuinely think the ERG leadership types (Boris etc.) are rooting for either Brexit to get cancelled or for some sort of BINO which allows them to cry infamy, pass new constituencies and then run against the San Marino of opposition leaders (who I actually think is likely to step down in 2019 fwiw).

Labour are never going to win a majority under their current leader. The Conservatives are incompetent, fratricidal and widely loathed yet Labour are polling nowhere near close enough to win a majority. If Tories pass new boundaries (how ****ing poorly run are they to risk not doing so before the next election?) it gets even harder. Maybe if there was a recession but that's unlikely to happen before parliament passes new boundaries.

No complacency, only straw men it seems, sadly.

You also have to factor in the number of Tory MPs and even cabinet ministers who will resign/defect, which never plays well with voters.

All of which mean there are factors that mitigate somewhat against the appeal of a shiny new simple Tory leader, though of course any sane person wants May to remain as leader and continue suffering while she teeters towards her red line that separates her from the cliff edge of .... a referendum.

It was 1 vote, 313 to 312 (50.08%)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...on-by-one-vote

Wow, how do you describe winning by 2 votes? A landslide?

There's a difference between forcing an extension in the event of no deal, and simply saying no deal, which lost 400-160

Diebitter - have a day off mate.

I think I trolled myself there

diebitter + sooted, what do you think will happen re. Brexit?

A very happy 2nd not leaving the EU day to all :beer:

May will continue to keep dragging this **** out as long as possible, and the longer she does, the lower the tory party vote share will drop.

May will fail in whatever cos she's relying on unreliable partners on every side, each of whom benefit from destabilisation sooner or later.

I expect GE cos blockers for getting on with it, and blockers for referendum.

I have no idea what the outcome will be, but know the Corbyn getting in will be 10 times worse than a no deal brexit (external investment other than asset strippers will fall to nothing), and will take 4-5 times longer to recover from.


Politicians still exhibit terrible fuzzy thinking at every turn, and keep talking about options but avoiding the 3 actual options that are available: no deal, WA, revoke.


All this other stuff they keep going on about are all contingent on WA being passed, but they just don't get that.

lol I just noticed on my settings, this is 'Page 666 of 666'

lol wut

Brexit latest news: Nigel Farage unveils Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister as surprise candidate for new Brexit Party


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...lay-halloween/

FWIW I think this is what is starting to happen and will win the day



In the past week Peter Oborne said he got it wrong and Nick Ferrari said it's not worth it. And Brexit was never actually a big day to day concern. Lots of Brits don't like the EU but few actually give a strong ****.



If the European elections take place it will weaken the resolve of Leavers who will eventually get resigned to staying in large enough numbers to mean we'll stay (in 2016 or early 2017 I predicted we'd stay if Remain ever polled 58%+ v. Leave. Currently it's at ~54%).

Tories are tied or slightly losing in polls to the literal WOAT opposition leader with employment at literal highest recorded levels. They need to move on from Brexit. The ERG have no actual plan how to do so (other than voting for Brexit which they refuse to do!) and are thus faced with the option of No Brexit, losing an election to the WOAT opposition leader and No Brexit, or winning an election under a new leader and also getting No Brexit (since they won't vote for Brexit). Since the ERG's options are No Brexit, No Brexit & No Brexit they're faced with deciding which of the three options make them most look like martyrs. Personally I think the best way out is a new referendum with Remain v. Withdrawal Agreement v. No Deal but I don't think the ERG would go for this since they'd lose.

For me it's 1111 . What to make of that? Back to start?

Me too. i'd be happy as long as there is a clear 'leave' choice on the ref. Without that, it's a proper stitch up.

Shouldn't the ERG be the loudest advocates of a referendum with No Deal as an option?

People will never agree on the best voting system if there are more than two options, which would be a disaster. Remain vs May's deal or Remain vs no deal are the only serious choices. Maybe those should form two more referendums and we aggregate the votes for the options.

No deal is no option.

Remain vs Brexit. Then Westminster decides what to make of it ()

It is possible to have two questions.

1) Remain vs leave

2) If leave wins then would you prefer deal or no deal

As long as remain isn't an option because they already won that.

1) Withdrawal agreement
2) Offer Canada+++ and if rejected go WTO

One of their best!

Yes, denying people the chance to change their minds when actual Brexit is a million miles from what was promised is proper democracy.

Not forgetting that remain lost narrowly to all the different types of leave put together, not to WA or Canada+ or no deal or Norway or anything else.