Good point, bears repeating.

Give it up, you know you're losing.

Time for an idiot Yank update, please. October? Later? Never? Surrender to the Euros and start speaking French?

I'm confused.

MM MD

As awful as May and the Tories are they haven't yet resorted to pointing the finger of blame for 7/7 on Muslim MPs.

Nothing happened very slowly for a while and then last week, suddenly nothing happened.

but one thing is for sure - nous ne commencerons jamais a parler français

Though some people itt have been talking Mark Francois for some time.

This might be most practical but if you're a principled ERG type who wants No Deal but thinks remain > May's deal it's not clear how you should vote on question 1), which is why ranked choice voting is best.

May's deal v. No deal is troublesome for many reasons but whether it would get a parliamentary majority is an interesting question. I presume all the ERG would vote for it (what possible reason could Francois give for rejecting it?), if you add this to numbers from Meaningful Vote Three it makes the numbers very tight (~seven Tory MPs voted against because they want a referendum with remain on the table). You'd need the DUP on board and I don't think they would? That's assuming you don't lose any Tory MPs who are afraid of No Deal. Another (and perhaps the main reason) to think the numbers aren't there is no one has proposed it.

BTW if we're using the "remain shouldn't be on the ballot" argument which has merit, why not put Norway on the table? Norway v. May v. WTO.

Loving that we're having EU elections. According to JRM this is our chance to finally, finally, be able to curb EU ambitions and veto the policies we feel are abhorrent to our sovereignty.

Have it as long as Farage doesn't win.

Not sure I understand where you're going with this, but Norway has never tried unilaterally to leave the union. Also they have oil.

He’s been an MEP for 20 years, I’m not overly concerned by racist man forms alternative racist party to be voted for by the bigots. He’s an opportunist playing on the fact that he can still reel in mongrels, even to this day. They really are that stupid.

Look at me, I can still offer you the hatred that you ****ing neeeeed maaan. You have been let down by all government, come to me. I am a totally principled man and not a weasely opportunist.

Demos of Parliament don't change without a new election, and any new election they need to run on a record of partisan failure.

Labour just needs to run the line "you tried to pass brexit and failed" regardless of who is leading the tories.

They can't pick as a leader who hasn't been part of the May government and by definition is tainted by that association. All high profile tories were either in cabinet and most were in the brexit department negotiating Mays deal.

This also ignores that the country is remain majority now and was never ever close to hard brexit majority. A huge chunk of leavers wanted a Norway brexit, even.

Yeah as I said, let's not get complacent and talk ourselves into it. It's risky with a massive downside. It's very far from certain how opinion will go if May is replaced with a brexiter.

sounds as bad an idea as May running on 'striong and stable'. People want policies and if brexit is still live they will want a clear position on brexit.

I'm not saying they don't need their own position. I am saying that line destroys all reasonable tory positions on brexit. It is a killer blow to basically every high profile person who could take over as leader. The tories need to realise they are locked in now.

Their only playable position is to go hard right with someone who was always no deal. Which, ok, maybe that works to create a platform.

1, no deal
2, ???
3, profit

Good luck finding someone who isn't a huge moron who could actually sell this to the people.

Fwiw if I were advising labour in a GE:

1, hold to your current line of your six point deal, it's ****, but it's just not too **** to work
1b, remind people you only got involved at the 11th hour and you never changed position that you want a good brexit outcome "if possible"
2, stop talking brexit and talk about everything else

If possible is included to trigger the follow up question where the answer is "we know for a fact that conservatives can't deliver, they tried and failed for three years"

A slight complication for them is that Boris, the favourite, may at some point become unavailable, since polling suggests that the collapse in the Tory vote among under-50s could well cost him his majority and put him out of Parliament.



I'm sure no one will be so tasteless as to chuckle, chortle or guffaw at this, let alone get out one of those party things that you blow and they make a hooting noise and unroll to considerable and comic length with a feather on the end. I'm sure no one will do that.

Oh please let this happen.

You're confusing 'should be a killer blow' with definitely will be a killer blow.

It's far less certain than Teresa May winning a huge majority in the last election. The next GE is probably the most unpredictable one ever - even more so if we still haven't settled leaving the EU or not.


I advocate a different line - both for the country and twinning the enxt GE

1) Get some concessions from May and then get her deal through with a referendum.
2) make clear it's the best of a very bad job for the good of the country. Back remain because it's better than the best worst deal. Emphasise the need to tackle the genuine causes of peoples discontent
3) Get it over before the GE
4) Keep pushing labour policies and hanging the brexit disaster on the tories


Still no guaranteed - far far from it. But it's best for the country, best for Labour and it gives the tories every chance to implode spectacularly.

Seriously? Boris is the favourite? Chortle guffaw chortle guffaw utter ****s.

Boris doesn't fall into the category of being for no deal all along and he certainly can't claim to be separate from the cabinet he sat in as the third or fourth most powerful person.

Boris being a serious candidate to lead was never really a thing. His briefest opportunity was squandered three years ago. Gove was correct (for once).

It’s an uncanny nack that brexiters have in this day and age. Hilarious.

I was also surprised, but then couldn't think who I genuinely thought would be favoured. Am mostly pleased to say I have no idea how Tories might be thinking.

Anyway, on betfair it's Boris 5/1, Gove 7/1, Raab 15/2, Hunt 17/2 and no one else better than 14/1. Not much money available, so I think it's closer to no one really knows anything.

Boris consistently polls highest among Conservative party members. Tory MPs don't like him and could ensure he doesn't get in the final two but if he's popular enough among Tory members they might not want to make it look like a stitch up. If Boris is doing well in hypothetical general election polling (do not underestimate him) that's another reason he might win.

What the **** is Boris's plan if say May resigns tomorrow and he wins a leadership contest? He has the exact same options as May. It would be delicious. He couldn't go for no deal and couldn't get a better deal from the EU. So either he'd have to work with Labour which would be absolutely hilarious or try to get the ERG headliners to vote yes which would be amazing whether they did or didn't. It would be delicious. That's why I don't think it will happen, the ERG are happy using May as a piñata but have nothing better to offer. She's doing an honourable thing by staying on. My id desperately wants her to resign and hand it over to the ERG for the ensuing laughs.

He could go to battle with the EU. Make it about blame, anger and bitterness.

Don't underestimate how dangerous this could be. He may fall flat on his face but he could pull in most of the brexit and ukip supporters alongside a big chunk of the tories and a slice of the Labour vote.He might even get an election agreement with ukip/brexit not to stand against tory MPs who pledge to vote leave .

These are very dangerous times. Don't give opportunists the opportunity.