Thankfully, the election is over and we can go back to betting on meaningful stuff like what Cindy Lou will do next time people get her name wrong.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...t-should-i-do/

If I was buying I'd be buying No just because these type things always seem to be all talk and never come to fruition. But that's no more than hunch.

idk if there was much talk about Romney getting more votes than Trump, but actually Trump will end up getting more votes than Romney. Still of course gonna lose the popular vote to Clinton by like 1.5 mil or 1.2%.

Cabinet still providing some good betting. Mostly shorting the hot new guy to meet with Trump.

Popular vote vs electoral college market finally came most of the way to reality.

New free money seems to be margin of victory 0-2%. Seems like a lock, but only trading 0.87-0.88.

Assume these votes are from mostly urban counties.

Playing with the numbers, say they break 65-30-5. All other things being equal, you are already close to 2%.

CA needs to fix this and change the provisional ballot rules, because that's still 20% uncounted 12 days on. Many other states have figured this out.

Poured through all the most up to date vote counts for all states tonight because why not. Estimated uncounted CA votes county by county using http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/stat...ots-report.pdf

Just estimated uncounted votes breaking the same as the rest of the county has.

Have Clinton picking up another 900k votes in CA.

Surprisingly cnn and nyt don't have the most up to date #'s for a few states if you look at the states SoS pages.

All told, I have Clinton winning by 2.47M votes, 1.83%.

If she can find an extra 230-235k votes that would break the 2.0% mark.

I don't think she will do it, but its pretty close.

If you guys want to have some free money:

Frauke Petry to become next chancellor of Germany: "No" at 74ct.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3...in-2017#prices

No one will form a coalition with her party AfD, so she would need to have 45%+ of the vote to gain a majority. Polls around 10-12% since last year. Will never happen.

Merkel@46ct seems like insane value as well. I'm a bit angry that PI isnt available in Germany

election is not for another 10 months, damn

thanks for the tip tho

Anybody have any good resources on uncounted votes outside of CA?

Clinton +/- 2.0% and Tump outperforming polling by 1.0%-1.9% are going to be close.

I have Clinton +1.90% projecting the rest of CA. But its hard to find any good info on how many other votes are still outstanding and where they are located at? Clinton would still need to pick up more than 100,000 votes somewhere, and at most, it seems like there are 1M votes after CA.

My CA projections are assuming all votes stand too, and majority of votes left are provisional ballots, so that's unlikely. I still don't she hits 2.0%, but it's close enough I wish I could find some better info. The market has really moved the last 24 hrs, as everyone has realized its going to be very close... but I think they are overreacting and probably presenting a good buying opportunity.

Sorry my PM inbox was full and I've been very busy, please PM me again

"Proven wrong" you can go look at the record in writing. Trump asked black voters for their vote in every rally in the last 100. I said Trump will go after the black vote hard. That was the core of my argument. People spin it into oh he doesn't support BLM so I'm discredited. In the same breath, they said he was racist so he will never pander to black voters, which was proven false. First, BLM != black vote. Second, he is an opportunist, of course he will pander to win. And it's worth pointing out Trump is as much of a Republican as Sanders is a Democrat, and in case you aren't clued in, there's an (I) next to Bernie's name.

The standard is also impossibly high because I never get the benefit of the doubt. By that standard everyone is wrong. If even one comma is wrong then I'm called out. If for example I said that the US stock market will start tumbling hard March 20th following the FOMC meeting, and it starts on March 29th then I'm still wrong. It's such a bull**** standard where no one has to be right about anything yet constantly gets to attack my credibility or maintain the specious standard where if I am not 100% right then I am automatically wrong about everything.

If you take anyone's life you can edit out a 5 minute highlight reel that makes them look evil or benevolent or whatever you want. If you want to attack the exact words I said with such scrutiny, then you can certainly find areas that I am wrong, for example I used the word hypothetical when I meant rhetorical. I said someone was a doctor when they were only a medically trained SS agent. I said I wish people were forced to apologize when they were wrong, and people took that literally. Now, I misspoke: I meant that I wish people would apologize when they were wrong. I initially misunderstood BLM. But focusing on those inaccuracies is missing the forest for the trees.

I don't really participate here because of the constant sleaze. The sad part is that the people who attack me know the facts, and they know the facts well. They understand that back then, the common knowledge was that Trump was a racist, and now the common knowledge is he isn't. They understand I was ahead of the curve in understanding that, and that's in writing. There are many other examples. The point is that the core thesis is correct, even if the sundry isn't.

In my life, I quit my full ride scholarship at a top school and everyone said I was stupid, I won $180k that month. I spent every free dollar on buying Bitcoin, everyone said I was stupid, it spiked up huge. I bet Trump hard, everyone said I was stupid, it won. Now maybe it was luck, but you can't expect a 100% bulletproof explanation for those moves either. Most of the world is not very knowable, and sometimes you make mistakes. But as long as you judge things from first principles instead of parroting, and try to have an informational advantage, you are probably ahead.

During the race, I probably read more media than anyone on this board, at least at the time. I was reading pretty much nonstop. No one cares about the truth, because finding the truth is about trying to find evidence that disconfirms your belief, and that is uncomfortable. I read articles I don't like, and that's imo what separates me as someone who really cares about the truth. When people look at say, Google Consumer Surveys, why is Trump winning by so much in those swing states? They see a glitch, or they discredit that source. But wait, isn't GCS a top 3 pollster last cycle? I investigate. That's just one example.

Parroting is likely to lead to large errors. The best model online is probably 538 and it is a poor model. Many of the models could hardly be called predictive. Many of the polls were discredited, plus Nate Bronze was tweaking them (through things like adjusting the result or modifying the relative weight). You have to build models based on voter turnout.

I can't gloat very much. I won a narrow victory in a race that could have went either way - especially because of the incentives to cheat. Nowadays I don't really care about following it, I'm not obsessive like I used to be. If the US dollar collapses (and BTC rises), or the American economy is strong, I win either way. I even think I have a middle where I'm doing great both ways: holding BTC and working in America.

Spaceman Bryce pls clear your PM inbox or get back to me

Alex: I paid you via paypal two weeks ago. This should have been confirmed by paypal and then again through my follow-up PM that I sent after you completing payment. Your PM inbox was full immediately after the election, but it was accepting messages when I tracked down your info and paid via paypal later that week.

I never heard back from you, except when you PMd today asking for payment. I just sent you the screenshotted confirmation from two weeks ago. Please confirm either here, or via PM, or via my email that we're square.

Yeah we are square

Sent from my SM-G925W8 using Tapatalk

There are no words. One of the last GCS polls posted here was C+10 in ****ing Kansas, how did you make crushing Hillary carrying that state?

Going back and retconning this as "people dismissed their pro-Trump results" and not "people dismissed their random dartboard pinwheel" is WTFBBQ levels of idiocy.

Pm box cleared, sorry

Ughh raising the money I owe Alex is going to be a big pain in the ass.

'Don't gamble with money you cant afford to lose.'

As my degenerate acquaintance once told me "it ain't gambling if you can afford to lose it"

Congratulations. I'd be interested to hear your total winnings if you are willing to share.

Would also be interested in your basic investment thesis. Based on your posting it seems like you were big on the "Trump will pivot" angle which obviously didn't happen.

Were you right but for the wrong reasons? Did you think working class whites were being uniquely marketed to and were also not being represented in the polls? Or did you simply think you were getting a good price on your bet?

Wow that's a really convenient time to notice my posts. I had the money and now I don't.

I don't know of your particular betting arrangement you made or your current financial circumstance, but you generally have an obligation to keep the amount you wagered safe and separate from your other finances. In other words, once you bet, it's no longer part of your bankroll until the bet is concluded.

There may be a few exceptions to this - if you have an agreement in advance for settlement, or the other party knows you're good for the money and is willing to grant you the credit, or it's a super longshot bet where the other party knows you wouldn't want to lock up a large sum of money, or you're a huge fish who people want to bet against despite possible slowpays, etc.

I was making light of Dan's post. Sorry to hear you are stuck at the moment Bryce. I know **** happens and I did not mean to offend.