I already got some of it, so it shouldn't be too long.

Yeah unibet already paid out.

Betfair paid out as well


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Got Trump at 6/1 a few weeks ago. The money feels dirty, going to donate it to a Mexican charity.

whered all my money go

yea, like, I lost money on predictit, like a couple thousand, but I literally just lost a couple million in future earnings because we just elected a president who doesnt know anything. so like, cool

Jeez oh man, this is just nuts.

While this is just one particularly egregious comment among many (the first representative comment I came across), it illustrates the general level of overconfidence and condescension that was at play in this thread. Perhaps it's not surprising that the conversation becomes entirely one sided when this is what any opposing views are met with. Being mistakenly overconfident from time to time is understandable - the rest is not.

Ironically, I suppose the above post may have been right about the betting markets being soft.

Think we've all made a bet or poker play that we had to just laugh at and shrug off in hindsight from to time.

It was not by chance that the polling info was off, it was false assumptions and weighting. You were basically thinking you had AA when you really had A4. Publicly available information could have led you to suspect this, though probably not with complete certainty.


Too bad I've been hemorrhaging money at the poker tables this year or I could be rich on all this. Oh well, always another opportunity.

Key lesson in all this: Never take advice from random internet posters.

/End gloat

I'm well aware that's not how it works. But I assume he took decent odds. I remember him saying he took it before the first debate, when the odds were 1.6.

The electoral map and demographics, plus the early vote numbers, strongly pointed to a Clinton victory. It didn't happen, but definitely all signs were pointing towards it. There was even a bookmaker (paddy power) that paid out early on a Clinton victory.

Anybody else get Trump 15:1 early tonight?

Silver basically had it nailed, 3rd parties+independents made the polling wildly inaccurate, in particular so-called blue firewall states.

Don't feel bad, I had life hedge on Hillary -160 before first election. Made it back with +600 or better the other way.

Heh, Silver. He was both one of the most correct of all the major prediction-pundits in calling out potential uncertainty in the last week of the election and at other times horribly, horribly wrong.

I can respect that some of the information he puts out is very useful and insightful, yet I still think that he's a major sellout hack. Many of the articles on his site were basically Hillary campaign talking points (Heavily implying Sander's is a sexist? Flat out ignoring Hillary's email and other scandals for 90% of the year, while providing numerous links to every negative Trump story?) Checking in on article comments over the course of the year, they gradually managed to cultivate a Hillary echo chamber - though it's possible the $9+ million spent on CTR had something to do with that rather than 538's own efforts.

His data is interesting if you keep an awareness of its potential flaws. His punditry? No better than turning on a news station at random. His credibility would be shattered if other predictor-pundits weren't even't worse.

The way I see it, millenials in this thread, thinking no way she can lose, can be excused, one hopes they havent lost a house, rent money etc.

Generation X and older, all I can say is bwahahahahaha.

the place to make money is during the real time results. I was certain trump had it in the bag by 9:30 by comparing the outstanding votes with the current results and the results from years past in large democratic counties of swing states. if you were sharp and smart it I think you coulda figured it out by 9 or 915. iirc trump was even odds at like 9:45, and a large dog the previous 30-45 minutes. coulda really made a killing.

also, I remember something similar happening in the bush kerry election where it was clear bush had it, but kerry was still running at like 2:1 fav.

I'm still sweating this one, looks like Stein had enough votes in MI and WI to make a difference, but that won't be enough EVs; the PA total will be close but I think I'm going to collect.

I also lost an order of BBQ nachos on the FL result.

There was a ton of +EV in the state markets where Hillary was priced way ahead of the polling. The prices for NH, PA, NH, and NV were way out of whack with the polling numbers. All were basically tossups but Predictit had Trump at 3-1 dog or better in all of them.

I think this election shows that polling is less important than momentum... Trump made huge gains in most polls at the end (say from -6 to -2) but people figured Hillary was still ahead. The rapid pace at which Trump was closing was more important than the poll number itself.

On the whole, the political surveys were pretty far off so prognosticators Nate Silver and Wang didn't do well at all. Could be several reasons the surveys failed but by now you'd expect them to be much better at it. Its going to hard to trust them in the future.

(FWIW I was able to hedge my Hillary bets yesterday, plus I won Hillary-Nevada and Hilary-Virginia so I came out of it with only a small loss. Luckily the stock market is holding.)

Yeah the polls were disastrously wrong. Looks like Trump massively over performed with white women and college educated whites. He also exceeded expectation with Latinos.

I thought the Access Hollywood tape would be the nail in the coffin for Trump with women. I guess not. The majority of women either didn't care about those comments, wanted change or just really hated Clinton.

This time yesterday I would've lost about $60,000 on this outcome (states, Trump win, etc.). I managed to be wrong on pretty much everything at around 7pm last night, but ended up ekeing out a small win by the end of the night in furious trading. Far cry away from my goals, but beggars can't be choosers.

A fitting, terrible ending to a terrible year of politics.

I'm glad you made a profit at least. Not everyone can say that.

My paypal settings were screwed up before; if you would be so kind as to give it another go, sir, I'd appreciate it.

money was sent 2 hours ago

yikes

I had checked just minutes before that. Sorry for the bother with the incorrect settings on my end. Thank you. Received.

I had interest in:

- gary johnson market in NM
- gary johnson <3% pop
- Nevada dem
- VA dem
- AZ rep
- gop gets 370 EC
- hillary charged with a crime by end of 2016

I lost on the gary johnson <3%, took profit early on the others when **** started hitting the fan. Going into the day my confidence level was dramatically different than where it was when we started seeing the MI numbers and other states so I just closed everything out.

Edit: I forgot the play where I took rep yes / dem no in florida at ~.27 and sold off at ~.20 ._.

In the individual to be the next President market, about $25m in volume on PredictIt since the market opened.

About $200m on Betfair when I looked last night.

Without the $850 limit, PI would've probably been a very high number.

This limit saved me a lot of money last night. Thanks PI.