2018 Midterms Gameday Thread UPDATE 15 Mississippi still WOAT - Page 85 - Politics and Economics

The outstanding Montana votes appear to be some in Cascade which is lean Tester and Missoula which is heavy Tester territory - if he wins the remaining votes by the same margin he's been winning those counties by he'll hold on. Huge sweat to be honest since it looks like that's the only path to 46 left short of winning a special election or miracles in a recount in AZ/FL.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 11-07-2018 at 07:42 AM.

11-07-2018 , 08:01 AM

#2102

Coasterbrad

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 2,712

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

If that goes to a runoff I hereby pledge some time and money - minimally phone banking and a similar donation to what I made for Beto & Rosen this election. Possibly flying down there to hit doors.

Grunching since I just woke up and don't know any outcomes that happened after 1:30am, but I may try to drive down from NJ to HELP Abrams if this goes to a runoff. I'd be in for a carpool with you and/or others.

11-07-2018 , 08:08 AM

#2103

dlk9s

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Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 22,503

WOW. I woke up (after three hours of sleep - this should be a fun day) and saw McBath is leading now by about 3,000 votes.

And Abrams has cut the deficit to 70,000. Kemp is still at 50.4%, though, so the question is if there are enough provisional and absentee ballots out there to get him under 50.

11-07-2018 , 08:15 AM

#2104

markksman

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 20,921

Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

white people man

although FWIW we need to win latino votes by larger percentages than this too

This is a real issue. If they started voting in real self interest instead of perceived self interest it would have a significant impact.

11-07-2018 , 08:16 AM

#2105

JordanIB

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Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 13,458

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlk9s

Purge 1.7 million voters over 3 years and then win the gov by 70K. Yay democracy. Nice to see McBath pull it out. I thought she was done when I went to bed.

11-07-2018 , 08:19 AM

#2106

dlk9s

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Don't think the McBath one is over yet, but it is certainly interesting that she is now winning.

11-07-2018 , 08:21 AM

#2107

fxwacgesvrhdtf

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

raradevils
Ins0

And that might be about it actually.

Senorkeed, Awval

11-07-2018 , 08:21 AM

#2108

Money2Burn

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It’s super strange that in FL Amendment 4 passed with a super majority, but Gillum lost.

11-07-2018 , 08:45 AM

#2109

Clovis8

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Money2Burn

It’s super strange that in FL Amendment 4 passed with a super majority, but Gillum lost.

Thr overwhelmingly majority of Americans are very stupid and have little to no idea what they are voting for.

11-07-2018 , 08:46 AM

#2110

jmakin

banned

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 30,120

Rouda with 50.7% of the vote with 100% reporting

I am scared to be optimistic but i think he wins here solidly

I cant believe it, i truly cant

11-07-2018 , 08:47 AM

#2111

vaya

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jman220

Senorkeed, Awval

Well there were quite a few of them who showed up around the Kavanaugh hearings and seem to have now mostly disappeared.

11-07-2018 , 08:50 AM

#2112

Trolly McTrollson

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

appealing to racism isnt going to work for much longer, boomers are going and our generation just isnt that racist - for every inso there are two normies

my q is, what will the repubs turn to when the racism well runs dry

Continuing to rig the system and cheat in every way possible.

11-07-2018 , 08:51 AM

#2113

champstark

aka starkwired

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 14,838

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clovis8

Thr overwhelmingly majority of Americans are very stupid and have little to no idea WHO they are voting for.

FYP

They knew EXACTLY what they were voting for in restoring felon rights, but that doesn't correlate to who they voted for because many just see that R vs. a black man and immediately vote R.

11-07-2018 , 09:04 AM

#2114

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,809

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

How would you guys rate the results today out of a possible 10? 10 would involve Dems retaking the Senate. Maybe a 7?

3.5

I mean, we faded the complete disaster of not recapturing the house, but besides that? A few other results that DVaut and others have enumerated are also good, I guess.

But I think all of you are greatly underestimating just how much of a disaster the senate is. Obviously getting to 51 was always a long shot, but this means two more years of packing the judiciary (and God help us if RBG or Breyer kick the bucket).

An even bigger problem is how do we get the senate back any time soon? We basically found out that there are 15-20 states where the Democrats are completely ****ed. That's a third or more of the senate completely written off. Look at the 2020 senate map. It's FILLED with states where Democrats have ~no shot. We needed to not lose more than one seat to have a shot in 2020, and we may have lost four.

We need the WH/Senate/House trifecta to get anything progressive done. Today was a MAJOR step back in accomplishing that goal in the next 10 years.

11-07-2018 , 09:07 AM

#2115

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by corvette24

I don't think it has been brought up yet, but do we think the storms that hit Florida had an affect on voter turnout there?

I thought it would, but it looks like turnout was high in Bay county which was hit the hardest so I think it was mostly negligible

11-07-2018 , 09:21 AM

#2116

Paul McSwizzle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,531

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

There is a huge swing in these outcomes, too.

In 2020 we'll have the following pickup opportunities: AZ (special), CO, GA, IA, ME, NC. We defend AL, NH, MI.

Write off Alabama right off the bat. They won't nominate Roy Moore again. So let's say we pick up Arizona, Colorado, and one other one... Because none of GA, IA, ME, NC are going to be easy pickups - especially with some strong incumbents in the mix there. I'd probably gladly sign for 1 of the 4 right now.

That means the maximum net gain is 3. And of course that's with Arizona in the W category, which we're sweating out right now against a non-incumbent.

So basically, we REALLY need to sweep the outstanding Senate races.

Florida is in automatic recount territory, though, FWIW.

I think ME will be a D win in 2020.

11-07-2018 , 09:29 AM

#2117

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by forum ferret

Question for you guys:

How did candidates appear on your ballots in your state? Alphabetical? Party? Here in OK the Republican was the first choice regardless of name, and the Democrat was always the last choice. Even when there was a Libertarian or Independent, they would be after the Republican with the Democrat being last.

Are you in FL? If so, it's the law. The Dems got cute decades ago and made it so that the party controlling the governorship had its candidates listed first on the ballots. Now they (we) get screwed by it every election because GOP dominates.

11-07-2018 , 09:31 AM

#2118

John Candy

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,098

Hard to feel any joy this morning. Losing the Iowa governor's race hurts as it means I'll almost certainly be losing my collective bargaining rights. Senate picture is dismal. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I'm full of bad feels.

11-07-2018 , 09:32 AM

#2119

dlk9s

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Republican was always listed first on my GA ballot.

11-07-2018 , 09:35 AM

#2120

BigRedChief

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 182

Quote:

Originally Posted by champstark

FYP

They knew EXACTLY what they were voting for in restoring felon rights, but that doesn't correlate to who they voted for because many just see that R vs. a black man and immediately vote R.

Raises hand.....As a Florida voter thats not insane, I voted to allow Felons who have paid their debt to society to vote again. Sexual assualt and a lot mor ecrimes are not part og the restoration.

The idea was those who got addiction to drugs, did some bad non-violent stuff, served their sentence and have now turned their life around. Productive citizens in the community now.

11-07-2018 , 09:41 AM

#2121

BigRedChief

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 182

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyebooger

Its not good for the next two years. The blind Trumpers have more power now in the Senate. But there is hope. As bad as the Senate races were for Dems this election. In 2020 the R's have the same issue. There is no reason the D's won't take the Senate, maintain control of the house and if we don't go hard left wing, the Presidency.

11-07-2018 , 09:47 AM

#2122

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 58,809

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Its not good for the next two years. The blind Trumpers have more power now in the Senate. But there is hope. As bad as the Senate races were for Dems this election. In 2020 the R's have the same issue. There is no reason the D's won't take the Senate, maintain control of the house and if we don't go hard left wing, the Presidency.

Not even close imo.

2018: Democrats defending 10 states Trump won, Republicans defending 1 state Clinton won.

2020: Democrats defending 1 state Trump won, Republicans defending 2 states Clinton won.

Assuming the Democrats take the presidency, where are these mythical 4 states required to get the senate back? (5 if you preemptively throw Alabama in the loss column)

11-07-2018 , 09:57 AM

#2123

Namath12

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Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 55,849

Quote:

Originally Posted by Money2Burn

It’s super strange that in FL Amendment 4 passed with a super majority, but Gillum lost.

It does seem...odd

I mean there was very little pushback against 4, not sure a single ad was run against it and there was at least one very good one for it. The only place I saw a recommendation of "no" was on the GOP sample ballot I got in the mail. But yeah, seems really off.