Today's trumpcast has a bit on their San Antonio compound where they're spending big bucks. Check it out. Super interesting story. Shows some of Trumps genius in screwing over the GOP

Sad thing is there's so many trump scandals and they're very detailed and hard to make into a sound bite that "emails" is the easy political news to cover and that's what'll be on the news.

NYTimes and the FBI looking into Trump-Russia

It's worth buying ads in for sure. 538's "voter power index", which measures the "relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner", currently looks like this:

State	Voter Power Index
New Hampshire	4.4
Nevada	3.7
Colorado	3.4
North Carolina	3.2
Michigan	3.2
Pennsylvania	3
Wisconsin	2.8
Minnesota	2.3

So targeting voters there gets a lot of bang per buck, even though NH isn't that likely to be the decisive state. Here's 538's list of "tipping-point chance", the chance that when ordered by margin, a given state provides the decisive EVs:

State	% Chance
Florida	14.0
Pennsylvania	12.8
Michigan	11.3
North Carolina	11.2
Colorado	7.1
Wisconsin	6.5
Virginia	5.1
Minnesota	5.1
Ohio	4.7
Arizona	3.4
Nevada	3.1
New Hampshire	2.4

Frankly Florida being that high seems slightly questionable, everything else looks fine though.

You forgot Poland Pohler.

If you guys have been waiting to bet/add on Hillary, now is the time. This is like all the free $ Pacquiao bettors provided right before the Mayweather fight. Can't lose at this point barring a miracle.

I'm old enough to remember people who thought Hillary killed Vince Foster. idk if there are more or fewer conspiracy theorists out there, but the thing about the internet is that it brings together people with niche interests and creates communities. So even if you're the only person on the block who thinks chemtrails are turning the frogs gay, you can jump on the internet and just immerse yourself among hundreds of like-minded people. If anything, it certainly lowers the barrier to entry into crazytown.

The brony fad is probably a good example: there have probably always been weirdos who quietly spank it to children's cartoons, but now they can organize Bronycons and hang out or whatever on their own forums. If you were a Vince Foster truther back in the day you had to search far and wide for kindred spirits --maybe there was a distant AM radio channel that catered to that demographic.

Such a difficult choice.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...are_worse.html

I have decent cash on Clinton with friends but want to load up some more online. Anyone recommend an online book available to Canadians?

I'm reading a book about the birth of the surveillance state, and there's a bit on McCarthy that seems relevant to today. McCarthy was in some ways the Trump of his day who would just make up the craziest **** on the spot and red bait crowds of screaming fans.

I guess there's always a sector of people who are ready to jump on board the crazy train, you just need a way to broadcast a message to them.

Caveat that I haven't updated with today or yesterday's polls (will tonight) but yes, because of math and similar reasons to those articulated in ChrisV's excellent post.

Her stand up is meh, but her show has been damn good. 12 angry men episode was awesome.

The problem with this is that it appears to include landslide elections. Like if Clinton gets 370 EVs, there will still be a "tipping point state" meaning the state that pushed her over 270. But no1curr about that. More interesting would be looking at tipping-point states only in scenarios where flipping that state would change the outcome.

Oh, and that 40k sample NBC/SM poll. As I've written before, my technique for handling national polls gives that poll a lot of weight in a lot of states.

Total random tangent, but this is now also a thing for people with persecutory delusion mental disorders. They even have IRL gang stalking conferences and ****. The internet does real harm to the genuine crazies.

Mitt Romney said 47% bro TRUMP ain't nothing.

Today's oppo dump is really, really, really poor.

I was wondering when the final shoe would drop on Trump because jesus Hillary, the worst thing there is for you is stasis. Your personal inertia is to fall off the planet because human beings hate you, and always have. You need action in your favor, all the time, or your personal gravity will always suck you into an abyss. There is no "lead" for you - there is no such thing - because the laws of nature require you to sink unless your opponent is a conflagration of historic proportions.

That means you need to be fanning the flames. That's why conducting your huge oppo dump almost a month ago, now, was stupid. You needed to save it, unless you had something better.

Russia ties - this isn't new - and TAX AVOIDANCE are not the kind of bomb you need. They're a dud, you moron. You and your team. Morons. Always have been, have run a moron campaign, and now looking at election night you are forced to realize that you are such a compromised, ****ty politician that a stupid story about e-mails no one had even yet read can harm you MORE than A CAMPAIGN OF SEXUAL ASSAULT by your opponent can harm him. But you're so hubristic that you couldn't even see this coming.

**** you, Hillary Clinton, whom I am voting for and desperately hope wins. You are a negligent, stupid politician, and your systematic political incompetence, political hubris, and inhuman stupidity threaten all of us. There being a 1% chance of a Trump presidency is all the indictment you could ever need of Hillary Clinton and her entire team of incompetents. **** all y'all, ****ing idiots endangering the entire world and acting like it's so unfair that people think you're wack as ****. You are wack as ****. Idiots.

Donna Brazile out here acting like anyone is more of a hack than her.

Anyway, that will be my only truly unhinged rant.

Solid analysis, though I found your national guard vs local police civil war fan fiction a tad more realistic.

And if the upcoming court date in Dec. has taught us anything, you can safely remove the comma and that statement would still be accurate

No. DONNY DUMP would need an actual rape or murder on tape to get any worse at this point bro. You funny

Fox news frontpage is desperate with 1 week left

It really is unbelievable how cute Clinton got about so much of this ****.

Her online Twitter ads are great because they are two minutes long, but a lot of the actual media buys I see are garbage like Mike Morell endorsing her and the thing where Trump calls women ugly. Donald Trump is literally a moron and we got through this whole campaign without that ever once being exposed.

couldnt they just put an ad of literally 2 seconds/2 seconds sounds clips of trump contradicting the thousands things he's said in the past 5 years, for like 2 minutes straight?