Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 16 - Sports Betting

On road favs 7.5-8.5? You are the data base king so I will defer but from 05-09 I have 24/35 for 68.57%.

Caveat...I am not strictly using close. If i bet it and it moves out late i count it. If it moves in too late for me to get in I don't. That is most likely where we differ.

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10-06-2010 , 06:05 AM

#378

PerpetualCzech

adept

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 871

Quote:

Originally Posted by ImStillBen

Can't believe you show your face anywhere.

Was that you complaining about stalkers the other day? LOL

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10-06-2010 , 10:29 AM

#379

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabaneta

Why do 75% of the games list -110/-110 for the total price?

no idea it's from sbrodds i believe. i forgot where i got that from.

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10-06-2010 , 11:53 AM

#380

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdog

I'm more interested in whether 21% of the results fell within the added 6 point teaser range

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10-06-2010 , 03:05 PM

#381

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,864

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

I'm more interested in whether 21% of the results fell within the added 6 point teaser range

Valid question but impossible to answer without knowing exactly which games were affected. Which I don't. Also noticed that rsigley used four years and I five. So the difference is slightly less than one game per season.

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10-06-2010 , 03:37 PM

#382

luegofuego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,874

I deposited some money on Legends, which kind of has nothing to offer me, they spread nothing and what they do spread seems to be pinny cloned, and now I can't withdraw until I bet my entire balance atleast 1x unless I wanna pay 10% handling fee.

There was nothing "traditionally" teasable but i made this one:

Panthers +8 / Redskins +9

since Pinny has Redskins at +2.5 and Panthers at +1.5 (albeit +112), aren't I getting a 6.5pt teaser here? They pay -107 on teasers too. I'm just trying to bet my balance so anything at or above 0% ROI is fine. Have I made a stupid bet?

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10-06-2010 , 03:58 PM

#383

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

you're actually getting 6.5 on the redskins and 5.5 on the Panthers
you're getting a little worse than a true 6 pointer as the push on the 8 is more than the push on the 9

also, you should be looking for a breakeven leg as a 3 teamer at +180 is so much better than a 2 teamer at -110

if this was 15 minutes before kickoff, it would be a good bet
try not to bet ahead of time

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10-06-2010 , 04:08 PM

#384

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

I'm more interested in whether 21% of the results fell within the added 6 point teaser range

With a 35 game sample I'd only be concerned if it's significantly less than 21%. There's like a ~30% that it randomly could perform at 17% or below over that sample.

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10-06-2010 , 04:12 PM

#385

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by atrainpsu

With a 35 game sample I'd only be concerned if it's significantly less than 21%. There's like a ~30% that it randomly could perform at 17% or below over that sample.

good points

binomial test for significance IMO

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10-06-2010 , 05:06 PM

#386

luegofuego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,874

mt2r,

thanks

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10-06-2010 , 07:51 PM

#387

razoredge99

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 19

This is what i have:
3 Team 6 Pt. Football Teaser

+ 180 [412] BALTIMORE - 1 - 110 DENVER @ BALTIMORE
[416] INDIANAPOLIS - 2 - 110 KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS
[436] Over 32 - 110 PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO
400 720

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10-06-2010 , 09:08 PM

#388

mulebennett

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,886

WTF?

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10-06-2010 , 09:10 PM

#389

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by razoredge99

An easy +160 imo. good luck

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10-06-2010 , 10:02 PM

#390

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by razoredge99

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10-06-2010 , 10:18 PM

#391

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

should of just put it all on UFL underdogs, 6-0 so far. it's like printing money just a little at a time cause the limits are like $500-1k per book

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10-06-2010 , 11:33 PM

#392

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

Assuming use of closing lines. If three teams have no vig MLs of -281, -281, and -261 respectively, and their 3 team teaser is -0.5, -0.5, -1, with the teaser payoff of +180. Losses when the games end tied wont offset the +180 vs +154 payoff difference, right?

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10-06-2010 , 11:36 PM

#393

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Correct, don't even need to run the math.

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10-07-2010 , 12:44 AM

#394

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucky

Yeah good week for this....any idea how to assign a kelly stake though?

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10-07-2010 , 01:07 AM

#395

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

you mean full vs half kelly? or actual percentage of roll?

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php lazy kelly calculator.

Take no vig lines multiply them. You get bet win %

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10-07-2010 , 01:18 AM

#396

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

bjornb is probably world about simultaneous events of having 6 different legs put into 20 3-teamer teasers and what the appropriate pct of bankroll is to bet on each of the 20 3-teamers and what is the appropriate sized hedge bet for each of the 6 legs

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10-09-2010 , 11:03 AM

#397

TheWalk

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,599

Penn St. seems like it could be included this week...

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10-09-2010 , 11:41 AM

#398

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

South Florida too

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10-09-2010 , 06:49 PM

#399

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,019

I'm going out and gonna do some drinking tonight .... so i think I should get my teasers in now. So:

Jaguars +7.5
Redskins +8.5

Bears right now at Pinnacle are +3 -115 and +2.5 +109. At the book I was gonna bet at they are currently +3 -125. This one probably isn't going to be a good one though, right?? It is a low total, 33. Ah, I might do it.