http://olieng.net/wp-content/uploads...er2-olieng.jpg


Dunno how to get the little BFO lists, so per 5dimes:

Edgar -145
Maynard +125

Rampage -275
Hammill +235

Nelson EV
Mir -120

Santiago EV
Stann -120

Story +175
Alves -210


I personally like Rampage and Mir, havent looked through the rest enough to feel confident in betting.

Im definitely rooting for Edgar here and think he pulls it out, he took everything Maynard could throw at him in the last fight and came back huge, but I dont know if I am gonna bet as of yet.

Thoughts on Santiago/Stann?



Want:
Rampage > Hamill @ -245 for $2450 to win $1k
Mir > Nelson @ -105 for $525 to win $500

Accepting BoA/Cash in Montreal, and should probably be able to do FTP trades by the time this happens. Regs QTB.

Also, dunno why I'm doing this, if you need a solid stream come fight night, PM me, ill try to reply to most.
Note, it does cost $3 for a day/$10 per month.

At first glance, I love Alves and Jackson. It's chalky, but still.

Edgar -145
Maynard +125
I like a small play on Maynard here - i think he's got a serious advantage with that power even if his standup isn't quiet as good - its still close and still very dangerous. i think edgar will try to make it more of a wrestling match and i think that's also in maynards favor - he gassed himself out last time and i don't see that happening here - not completely . i think the true line should be maynard -175

Rampage -275
Hammill +235
I'd prefer not to touch this fight. maybe hammill can dominate rampage in wrestling...maybe. maybe rampage decides that there is more to training than boxing and jogging...


Nelson EV
Mir -120
I definitely like mir here. i think there will be some ring rust for nelson - especially since he's not in exactly premo shape. i go pretty heavy here on mir. i give striking advantage to mir along with the bjj + cardio. i think the true line should be mir -220

Santiago EV
Stann -120
Big on Brian Stann here - he shows up and is tough and a game fighter. makes up for what he lacks in the standing department. i think the true line should be stann -200

Story +175
Alves -210
I think the line here is fair - though fight that alves should win, hopefully alves continues to focus on his wrestling

Surprised people aren't heavier on Nelson (as it were). Nelson already outgrappled Mir at Grappler's Quest, has a solid solid chin as exhibited in the Dos Santos fight, and can lay people out with hard, nasty strikes. Frank Mir has a fairly padded record, has lost via KO all 5 times in his career (including to Pe De Pano of all people) and can't absorb punishment.

Mir is one of those guys I like to bet against because of his shortcomings as a fighter, and his relative popularity and the fact that he's a former UFC champion (from when the division was weak*) that causes people to think he's a better pick than he really is. I think +EV on Nelson is a steal.

* - I can't remember whether the second time around was a legit heavyweight championship or an interim. I think it was interim.

As for Edgar/Maynard, I had Maynard winning the fight at UFC 125 (in retrospect I think the first round was a 10-7 and he should have won one of the other rounds to boot), but I pick Edgar for the rematch. Maynard's going to have to land another bomb to win, and I don't think it'll happen. Edgar put on 4 rounds of a boxing clinic against Maynard and I think the judges will react to that again.

wow how is FE a fav here

For the Mir fight, we havent really gotten a chance to see his wrestling, but we have to assume that after the Lesnar fight he trained it a lot more for his rematch and for Carwin. We didnt see it against Carwin, and we didnt see it against CroCop, but I have to assume its fairly improved and that there is a good chance he can keep it standing, and we have seen that his standup is much improved, and probably better than Roys. Also, Roy gassed real hard against Dos Santos and im pretty sure Mirs got more in the tank than that.

Completely agree with the Edgar/Maynard

WoI, stop fkn trolling man.

i was totally ready to fire all weapons at the mir -120 line, but now u guys got me wondering? I really kind of dislike Mir as a person, and so figured that my interest in betting him must reflect a legit perceived advantage rather than any kind of bias...but i would totally be more of a happy camper betting against him and u guys made some good points so hmmm.......

Mir isn't particularly concerned about his wrestling since he considers jiu-jitsu his base. On this note, I look at Mir as a big fish in a small pond - decent jiu-jitsu becomes otherworldly when you're fighting the Tank Abbotts and Antoni Hardonks of the world. Roy Nelson is also a quality grappler, and Mir isn't going to be supremely interested in going to the ground against him unless he wants to prove something and undo the Grappler's Quest loss, since I think Mir's edge is negligible.

As for standing, I simply compare the relative durability of the two. Roy Nelson took three rounds of savage punishment from Junior Dos Santos, while Frank Mir simply doesn't absorb a beating well without going fetal. Also, Frank Mir has historically pretty much thrown the same one-two combo his entire career. If Roy Nelson has internet access at The Country Club, he'll see footage of it. Edge: Nelson.

To be fair, I don't think there's a MASSIVE edge in this bet. (Kharitonov over Arlovski, Silva over Belfort, Tuscscherer over Hunt, etc.) But I think there's an edge and I think Nelson is more likely to win.

For the record I lost the Tuscscherer bet.

I like Maynard. I don't think Edgar has a great shot at finishing him, and I think while his cardio will be better than Maynard's, I think Maynard will pace himself a bit more, and won't tire as fast. I think there is also a decent chance that Maynard works for takedowns, at least a couple rounds, and i think he is the superior wrestler, plus a bigger/ stronger guy. Basically Maynard has more ways to win, and he should be able to correct his mistakes in the 2nd fight more than Edgar will be able to in this fight.
Staying away from Hamill/ Jackson. Rampage is so bad off his back, Hamill just has to get 2 takedowns the whole fight and he can take it. Rampage has better hands, and I think he wins more often than not, but his conditioning/ weaknesses concern me.
I like Mir over Nelson, slightly. If it is a slugfest Mir will have problems, but I think he is more technical on the feet. In terms of the wrestling/ jujitsu, I expect this to be a stand up fight.
Will probably parlay Torres/ Alves, and will fade McKenzie.

I don't agree with anything you say here except for the last sentence, but I like that last sentence a lot.

Whoops, scratch that, I'm probably staying away from Jackson/Hamill too unless the lines change significantly. They're pretty awful right now.

You think Edgar has a great shot at finishing him? You don't think Maynard will try to pace himself a bit more this fight? You don't think he might try to go for takedowns, which were very effective in the first fight, yet weren't used in the 2nd fight, a couple times? You don't think Maynard has more ways to win?
You think Nelson is more technical standing? You think it will go to the ground? Who gets the takedown?

I highly, highly highly doubt Hamill gets a takedown. He is too slow and page is too strong. The only real concern I have is that Rampage comes in out of shape cuz of a seriously sub-par opponent/lack of motivation.

Saying Nelson gassed against JDS isn't really fair. Getting smashed in the face, lots, makes you "gas". He looked gassed because he was still upright well beyond the level of punishment that would have turned Mir into a chalk outline. Obv it's still a question for him in round 3 of a 19-19 fight, but JDS fight -> no tank isn't a fair conclusion.

I don't think Maynard has too many ways to win. Edgar'a takedown defense has improved dramatically and he's like a hornet when he fights - hit/move, hit/move. He's scary fast and Maynard probably won't be able to put hands on him this time.

TC, afaik, and this is purely from memory of others speaking about it, in his fight with Monson he gassed pretty horribly as well, adn thats the last fight thats been 3 rounds in the last 4 years. If he did, thats 2/2 gases in decisions in at all relevant fights, plus hes a massive, massive fatty and I doubt he will ever have the gas for 3 solid rounds.

Gas won't matter in the Mir/Nelson fight, that's all I'll say about that.

What about the Stann-Santiago fight? Looks like Stann should be bigger favourite.

Because he got as hammered by Maynard as he could and he still didn't lose and the fight before that he dominated BJ.

FE should be a bigger fave imo - we saw in the last fight that Maynard no longer has the significant wrestling advantage and FE still had a cardio edge after taking a frantic shellacking.

Maynard exploited a hole in Edgar's game very well for a short period in that fight; I expect an Edgar win via decision and him controlling the significant majority of the fight, via superior footwork and striking.

ok but he lost to Maynard twice, yes he sucked out with a draw. I'm not saying he cant win, I think he has a decent shot, but I was really surprised to see him as a betting fav. fwiw I'm a big FE fan and will be rooting for him.

Maynard didn't use his wrestling the 2nd fight. When Frankie surprised him with some takedowns, Maynard got up right away. If Maynard follows a similar gameplan, come out super fast, don't go for takedowns, etc, he will have some problems. As he did in the later rounds. But from this angle, that would seem to be a bad strategy, and I don't think its right to assume he will this time out.
If the ref stopped the fight in the 1st, which he very well could have, who would be taking FE if they announced a rematch?

Because then we wouldn't have had 20 minutes of seeing Edgar continue to fight and him seemingly getting the upper hand at times--the total body of work would have been Maynard pasting Edgar and then the fight being stopped.

What's the deal with all the money coming in on Frank Mir? The BetUS line shifted from -115 each to +EV for Nelson and -130 for Mir. It's making me second guess my pick.

why? santiago is the more skilled fighter both standing and on the ground, i don't see why stann should be the favorite at all.

Stann is a very dangerous fighter for someone with a questionable chin like santiago.