Lesnar is a big name, but he's also the most hated fighter in the UFC by far.

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Brock-Lesnar-347

In hindsight, there was huge value in brock in all of those fights...not just because he won 4/5 either.

Yes, but you can't let him get you both ways amirite?

Suggesting that Carwin is going to be out of his comfort zone or gas during later rounds is conjecture at best. Every time a fighter doesn't have a lot of time logged in later rounds there is always somebody questioning his gas tank or heart in the final rounds based solely on the fact that we haven't seen him there before.

fwiw I'm on Lesnar.

I think lesnar wins this a good % of the time but I think the line is too well placed .

On the other hand, Stevenson has really crappy standup. Who has he ever won against on the feet?

It's hard to get the image of Tom Speer clocking Sotiropolous out of my head, even though that was years ago and he's surely improved.

Pellegrino should have a pronounced wrestling advantage, but he does have a tendency to make mistakes in fights.

Sorry, but this is yet another post from me where I just post a lot of confounding information and then say I am not betting the fight. I'm not sure if anyone finds that valuable.

Plays I actually like:

Reljic -165
lytle -200
Carwin +147
Akiyama -205

-200 on Lytle seems like a lot of juice to lay on a fight that will mostly involve two decent , but unexceptionable, strikers swinging away at each other. Chris got rocked bad against Burns. To his credit he recovered well, but Brown isn't exactly known for folding quickly either.

yeah i think everyone who said something like "lesnar vs carwin is a coinflip so i'm taking the underdog" is spouting dumb nonsense, but that kind of thinking seems to actually be somewhat appropriate for lytle/brown.

both are tough guys unlikely to be finished who i don't think have a sizable advantage over the other in any aspect of mma, and even if there is an advantage to be exploited, it's unlikely that doing so will be part of the gameplan for either of them.

I am rooting for Carwin hard in this fight, but I don't think I will be betting on him. The line is pretty good, Brock should win this, but Carwin is gonna always be dangerous, and it will be interesting to finally see someone around the same size as Brock put up a fight. I think Shane will get taken down a few times, and should be able to get up, but how many times before he is either TKOed from being grinded out is the question. I think if Shane can get Brock up against the cage in some scrambles and hold him there and dirty box like Randy had some success doing, he should also have some success...but probably not enough to win but well see. The only fight I am betting on is :

Brendan Schaub -295

Chris Tuchscherer +235

3u on Schaub, I don't even think its gonna be close. Schaub had a disappointing Finale performance against Roy, but looked great last fight, and shouldn't have any trouble with Chris.

I'm betting five figures on Akiyama, Leben still sucks

i like akiyama in this fight as well but if leben lands a punch, it could be lights out for him.

anyway, i wish i can comfortably bet five figures on a fight, too

Love Akiyama here think he should be like -280 to -290

did you watch any of his fights during TUF? demico rogers took him down with ease and schaub was warned by the ref literally like 8-10 times about holding on to the fence to prevent jon madsen from taking him down. chris tuchsherer is a 2-time division II all-american wrestler who is significantly bigger and more experienced than either madsen or rogers.

Better question. Have you ever seen Tuchscherer fight? He got a gift decision in his last fight and literally only is in the UFC because hes pals with Brock. I usually try not to be to harsh on any fighter but hes seriously bad. Schaub might not have the best TDD but he can get up from guys like Roy and Jones taking him down, hes not gonna have much trouble with Chris anywhere, and even if he does Chris wont be able to keep it up for more then a round before gassing terribly.

you bring up a good point about him getting a gift decision in his last fight, i definitely thought hague kicked his ass. however you might want to consider exactly why he was gifted that decision and how it relates to the weaknesses of the fighter you are happy laying almost 3-1 on.

Yea, sorry I didn't mean to come off offensive btw. I honestly think he is that bad. Schaub has shown mediocre TDD in the past, but its not like Chris is gonna be able to do it for 3 rounds without getting caught or just gassing and getting crushed. I think Schaub looked so much better in his last fight and Chris looked even worse in his, but I give him a pass kinda for the Gonzaga fight obviously, I didn't expect him to look good after the kick haha.

i would have expected it to trend lesnar by now...maybe the casuals/wwe guys arne't falling for it? any thoughts? he has experienced a huge uptick right before each event in hsi fight history...i dont get the reason for this one.

update
aikiyama-205 2 units

hi im pretty noobish at this betting stuff have started reading just now and will continue to go through the sticky and all the well posts shortly
just wanted to hear from u experts if u would give an advice to total noob
which site? who? and when should i bet?
im betting 2k tried reading the posts itt i dont understand anything about lines etc (im hopeless i know) but this will hopefully change in a couple of days of intense reading

thx in advance

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19.../index795.html

rake free

edit nvm

* Brock Lesnar (-125) : 2.5 units to win 2 units
* George Sotiropoulos (-170) : 1.7 units to win 1 unit

Results of 1-1 for +1.8 units on my most recent picks (111) brought my recent running total to +27.675 units since UFC 75.

writeup:
http://mmajunkie.com/news/19777/perf...or-ufc-116.mma

thanks, always enjoy the write ups

karlos vemola weighed in at 222

vemola doesn't look like he has any skills beyond his wrestling and he's giving up 30 lbs to a better wrestler. what am i missing here?

So much for Brock being the much bigger man

yeah i was surprised to see pellegrino looking taller than sotiropoulos too, if i didn't know any better i would think that maybe they were using some kind of high tech device to increase their height.