The only odds i see so far are on the fedor fight. I'll take fedor -800. Even at those high odds i think this bet is hugely +ev. Unless fedor suddenly breaks down from all the years of fighting verdum has no legitimate path to victory. I would love to be able to find a reason to take verdum but i just can't do it. Frankly fedor is better at all most everything. Fedor will meat his match someday but verdum is not his equal nor does he have a punchers chance

oh and i have no idea what the subtitle to this even is

Subtitle is Fedor vs. Werdum.

I'm honestly tempted to bet smith over le again. That might just be because I felt like such a boss after calling that the first time.

Damn, Fedor v. Rogers again?!

All the money's going on Werdum so far, just grab Fedor at -550ish then. Unless you think -800 are luckier odds?

Where on earth are you seeing fedor-550. I'm seeing 800/500

just looked at the odds posted by humungus. I think i need to try and open a bet on fighting account cause beted is hanging -800

lol. miracles feel good

Id bet fedor and Cung at those odds.

Finney is probably worth a small flier here just cuz shes +1100, but I know nothing about her.

i love fedor as much as the next guy but thinking there is value on him at -800 is silly. an experienced veteran who has faced top competition and has a height, weight, reach, and technical grappling skill advantage over his opponent should not be this big of an underdog.

but he is gonna lose...

Staying away from all that except for a possible bet on Smith.

I doubt Scott does it twice in a row, but Cung probably ain't stopping him and Cung's gas tank is an issue so it's possible Smith catches him late when he gets sloppy.

betting on big names at huuuge odds is something i got over (or perhaps, was forced to get over) back in '07 or '08.

Did you actually watch the fight?

Lol yes. I Think Le finishes him this time, but it wasn't a complete fluke. Shamrock hit Le with big punches in the third round of their fight too. Le wears himself out throwing videogame moves, and if he doesn't break the guy's arm or KO him, he becomes vulnerable to punches.

Smith is so broken down though that he gets killed most likely this time.

the bigger reason why le lost is he didn't fall straight to mat and try to pull guard. instead he got up on wobbly legs and was a target for the kill. he has no confidence being on his back and thats what doomed him. he could have used the next 2 mins in that round just trying to buy himself time like any other mma fighter.

i have other opinions of fight but le's problem could have been solved easily.

i agree though that he did try to get too fancy. 3rd round of every fight he does that though.

i want to see his full potential in how he can win fights in machida like fashion. i'm curious to see how far he can go.

Well thanks for the advice but saying their is no value in fedor just because the line is high is kinda silly. Ken shamrock is a technically superior was a technically superior grappler to tito ortiz yet their was tremendous value on ortiz even at -4000. I know i'm kinda comparing apples and oranges. Just saying in mma you shouldn't be scared of big lines. Also you are wrong about the technical grapling adavntage. Fedor is on of the best sambo (sp?) artist in the world and he also has some of the quickest sub transitions in the heavyweight division. Sure their is no guarantee that fedor will win but to be honest i thibk he wins this fight at least 9 out of ten times. Just how exactly do you think verdum wins this fight? I'm honestly curious to know.

A healthy fear of big lines in MMA seems to be a good thing.

Werdum could win on a cut.

Sure and fedor might cramp up with horrible gas pains and not be able to continue. I mean their are lots of ways that verdum wins this fight but i still say he wins less then1 out of ten times.

Fedor is by far one of my favorite fighters and i still think he's #1 p4p but he has been slowing down for the past couple years and I expect him to lose soon if he fights better competition. At 8-1 you're barely above break even if he does win atleast 9 out of 10 times. Verdum can catch him on the feet, he can sub him, and he can outpoint him. There's also the chance of a fluke DQ, bad stoppage, or horrific judging like we've seen lately. Obviously I think Fedor wins but I'm not touching anything over -500.

Fedor doesn't have a history of nasty gas pains.

See that's where i disagree with a lot of you. I don't think verdum's ground game is all that much better then fedor's.

Hard to say. I don't think Werdum gives up side control and a kimura to Mark Hunt or lets Kevin Randleman take his back. I think it's more likely that Werdum subs fedor than the other way around, although Fedor is certainly a very, very good grappler, even if he isn't a traditional BJJ style player.

it is that much better. but when were talking about grappling in mma with 5 min rds where you can kick and punch, against someone who possess the quickest hand speed in the heavyweight division with one shot knockout power, is a champion in a background based off wrestling and grappling that edge is significantly diminished. fedor has a more significant edge in striking, ability to keep the fight standing,ability to finish the fight, ability to win a decision than werdum has taking the fight down and working off a submission.

this fight is similar to how ppl were handicapping maia/silva. werdum has an advantage on the ground therefore he has a shot to win.
i think a werdum victory is more likely from some outside factor such as injury, cut, early referee stoppage, etc than from something he can pull off.
fedors about a 90% favorite easily and thats being generous to how likely it is for luck to come into play.

this fight is only 3 rds, less time for a fluke to occur. fedor wont lose a decision when hes already been unofficially billed to headline sf's first ppv against overeem.

im going to max fedor in the couple books that i have at around -525.

I never said I thought it was, just said that Werdum does have the possibility of subbing him and vice versa.

It wasn't that long ago that many many people said Frankie Edgar had 0% chance vs BJ and lost a large chunk there.

I kinda disagree with this, esp. with how judges have been scoring fights lately...

werdum/fedor isn't really like maia/silva at all, silva had a huge size and reach advantage that he was able to use to keep maia from getting ahold of him. werdum/fedor is pretty much the opposite with werdum coming in at 6'4" 240-245 compared to fedor's 6'0" 230

werdum has never really demonstrated great takedowns in mma and it's definitely possible that fedor's sambo skills will allow him to keep the fight standing, but if guys like brett rodgers, mark hunt, and heath herring can end up on top of fedor, it's not a huge leap to think that werdum might be able to do so as well. i really think height is one of the most under-rated aspects of takedown offense/defense and that it is very possible that werdum will be able to use the leverage he can create being four inches taller to take fedor down.

in the 2009 adcc heavyweight final against roberto abreu i think werdum demonstrated the ability to translate a size advantage into stifling top control and that his half-guard passing is truly world class. if werdum gets on top of fedor it is not going to be easy for emelianenko to get back to his feet at all. although if werdum is not careful fedor might be able to time his guard passes and explode back to his feet much like bigfoot silva was able to early in their fight.

off of his back fedor has certainly demonstrated an uncanny ability to catch guys with mark coleman and hong man choi level sub-defense in armbars from the bottom, but werdum is more than skilled and experienced enough at the highest level of bjj competition to make fedor's "quick sub transitions" very unlikely to be a factor. i actually think all the armbar victories on fedor's record is a point in werdum's favor, because i'm pretty sure the vast majority of them came from his opponent being on top of him in his guard which is exactly where werdum wants to be.

for some reason i kinda had it in my head that this was a 5 round fight, but i think 3 rounds actually favors werdum, i wouldn't count on him submitting fedor, but if he can get 3-4 takedowns and maintain top position for large portions of 2 rounds without getting knocked out in the process i think it is very possible for him to win a decision.