Depending on the line I might

True line about -125 DRG +125 MC i'd say

I'd have Ghostking/Seed at evens

Got 3u on FXO, they're at +129 now... is it just me or should they be -110 favourites or so against NSH? Lucky, Leenock, Tear, Gumiho and one of asd/Choya vs Jjakji, Tassadar and three of San/Seal/Sage/Freaky/Sculp

Dear FXO: 4-1, and you decide to play THREE players outside your top 5 lineup now? If Choya picks himself last, i'll be a sad panda.

and the Leenocktopus saves FXO and my with it ships me a few units.

No idea what Choya was thinking playing Sirius and Whale over Lucky + either himself or asd

Got in early on the Code A lines on Parting at 1.74 vs Killer (PvT, and it's Parting, and Killer isn't on his level in Parting's best MU) and on Alive vs Ganzi at 1.72 (Alive simply has better TvT than Ganzi)

Feels like the lower leagues (Code A and random other tournaments) are easier to bet on than Code S, i'm pretty sure i'm down lifetime betting on Code S but up decently on Code A and foreign tournaments.

Parting's probably still value at 1.70 or whatever he is right now, I really think the true line is more like 1.50 tbh (and probably more like 1.60 for Alive)

lol i cant believe i thought killer was T not P - was thinking of heart. In any case, went 3/3 on polt leenock and parting there, i seem to be better at code A than S. gogo MMA, Shine and Puzzle today (and Oz but there was no value on him so didnt bet him). Surprised to see Puzzle a decent dog to Curious. MMA shouldnt be that big of a dog to hero either imo especially since he'll be wanting to prove himself with the whole falling out with slayers he's having

and MMA is back. Redemption in next GSL Code S season as a member of a non-Slayers team one time? Hope TL, Fnatic or Millenium pick him up he's rumoured to want to move to a foreign team

On a sick runhot streak at the moment, may as well put a small bet on Oz and see how many in a row I can get, i've picked every match correctly in the last few days except Jjakji vs Creator

Also Ghostking needs to hurry up and beat Seed and DRG needs to beat MC and Ghostking so we can put this season behind us and move on to a new season and pool

christ my ability to do math has gone out the door. MC -175 seems pretty good (what probability per game does that imply? can anyone show me the formula. pretty sad I know).

my gut says MC is much closer to -275 than -175. Does anyone want seed at No vig??

Your gut doesn't know what %s those correlate to so who cares what it thinks? =P

-175 is 1.75 : 1

1.75 + 1 = 2.75

100/2.75 = 36.363636% for non MC. 100 minus that for MC.

-275 would be 26.6666%

Now let your gut's imagination run free.

Oh are you asking what the odds per game are in the best of 7, assuming MC is those moneylines for the whole match? Let me eat calories then Ill answer that.

yes that's what I'm asking, I forgot how to do the bernulli stuff

Like I don't understand how I can consider myself smart and then just sit here stumped like I am trying to figure this out. I'm gonna keep pondering and feeling worse about my high SAT math scores validity. Dat TI-89.

I thought of a method but it's pretty lame and I'm too lazy to do it:

find the odds of him winning in 4 (p^4)
find odds of him winning in 5 (bernulli 3 of 4, *p)
find odds of him winning in 6 (bernulli 3 of 5, *p)
find odds of him winning in 7 (bernulli 3 of 6, *p)

it's this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomia..._mass_function

ok here's the formula lol

35(x^4)(1-x)^3 + 15(x^4)(1-x)^2 + 5(x^4)(1-x) + x^4 = chance of winning match

x is probablity


now I can't remember if you can solve these without simplifying. can you just graph them?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/47...-guys-1224402/

I'm a bit surprised I couldn't work it out off the top of my head either

Leaning MC for the final but probably not going to play it hard. All over TSL against Slayers though, with the whole dropping MMA to the B team thing, and generally perplexing player selections all season, I don't see Slayers beating a team that is, you know, actually good (they beat Prime, but that was more a big day from Coca and Prime choking than anything)

The Hyun/Shine/Symbol zerg trio plus Polt regaining some form should lead TSL all the way to the title if one of the zergs can beat Dongraegu in the grand final imo giving him only 1-2 kills (or if Polt can somehow beat him on Antiga)

I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 TSL players in Code S next season, Symbol made it, one of Polt/Shine has made it as they have each other final round, then Hyun can either beat Genius or get through the up and downs a reasonable % as can the loser of Polt/Shine

Also, wtf @ TSL being underdogs now? Time to mash the +109 line for the max

Edit: lol my bet singlehandedly moved the line from +109 to -104 mustn't be too much bet on that yet. If TSL get back to being dogs again i'll hit it for the max again. Got a lot of faith in TSL simply because they always play their best team and Symbol and Polt are favourites against everyone on the slayers lineup other than MMA, who they haven't played in a while and probably won't play again after all the controversy. Ryung/Coca are locks for them to play, Coca is a dog to all 3 TSL zergs imo, Ryung cancels out Polt but i'd take Polt there narrowly, Puzzle lost to Curious so on that form he's going to get demolished by Symbol, and Slayers is leading off with Clide who will lose to Shine most of the time, then slayers might find a reason to play Crank rather than one of their Code S caliber players... basically Jessica is the nut worst manager when it comes to team selection.

Think I might wait as Slayers opened as underdogs and got bet into being favourites, so now that my bet put it back to evens I might be able to hit TSL as underdogs again later. TSL hasn't let me down all season and I don't expect them to start now, they even proved they can win when Symbol doesn't get a game, and the only team that could stop them is MVP imo if Keen/DRG/Sniper/etc have a good day and even then i'll be taking TSL in the final if they're the slight underdogs I expect them to be

yeah I suck at math. MC -200 now, I still think that's actually a good bet, as crazy as that seems. I think MC is 60%+ to win an individual game in this series. A 7 game PvP has a lot of variance due to the nature of the matchup but I think MC is going to play these games reasonably conservatively and when you consider that, PvP really shifts to a micro intensive matchup. MC has best protoss micro. MC is around -220 imo

wish I had a Pinny account, would have snapped on the opener

I've avoided math all my life and plan on continuing that trend, so if Seed wins i get 2nd place in the pool

so with that in mind how much should i bet on MC to lock in a profit at the current line

honestly 2nd pays so low (relative to the buy in) that I wouldn't spend the effort. If you want MC to win just put some $ on it, if you want Seed, take your EV and let it ride

Well 2nd is 300, minus what the prizepool lost in exchange rates its closer to 285-290, MC is -200 or so, betting 200 on MC would give you 100 if he wins and ~90 if Seed wins, but it really isn't worth a hedge unless money is important given that would mean you basically break even for the pool given the buyin was 100. It'd be worth a hedge a bit more if you had the favourite in this situation I think

Not a bad comeback though considering you had 5 guys who scored 0 points in the r32 lol

I already know who is gonna win next season

I got the fix in, gl chumps

I hope pinnacle does odds to win next Code S season before the r32 starts, I could get on MMA or Squirtle if the price is right (better than +1800ish) or maybe even Leenock if he's +3k or so

Code A has been extremely predictable so far, went 2/2 today on Parting and Leenock, got on MMA for the max at the opening line of 1.84 for tomorrow (he crushed Hero and is finding form again after being dropped to the B team by Slayers and is looking to impress potential new clans, he'll run through Violet imo) and made a small play on Polt who opened at evens with Shine, far from a lock but as team captain he should have a small mental edge and Shine is probably only TSL's #3 zerg (depending whether you have him above or below Hyun). I think TSL could easily wind up with 4 guys in Code S next season but 2 will have to go through the up and downs.

Feel like MMA's going to 2-0 Violet and Polt/Shine is going to end up 2-1 Polt, no other lines really standing out for tomorrow

On another note, glgl to FXO, one of my two favourite teams (along with TSL) against Slayers, it'll be a travesty if Slayers wins after their awful player/map selections all season, they have the talent but they've been very lucky that most of the teams just haven't showed up on their A game against them. I think FXO is going to beat Slayers even though they're weaker on paper. Walchy and I took 6 teams each before the season (ended up being my 6 to his 5 after OGS disbanded) for a $100 sidebet and we've ended up with my FXO against his SlayersEG in the final so that should be a fun sweat, might add more on FXO if they get back to the +160 territory they were at a few days ago

Would be interesting to see a few of you guys handicap the lines for 'to win next season of code s' once all of the participants are known

Can't believe I only put a single unit on MMA at 1.84 he was still like 1.77 or so I should have hit it for the max again, he closed at 1.61 and even thats +EV with Antiga in the map pool

Got a unit on Supernova as a slight fav vs Yoda, a half on Curious since he's a dog and its a flip vs Creator and got on Polt over Shine at evens for a half as well

Feel like i'm gonna go 3-1 most of the time, these Code A games are really lacking upsets this season and the favourites really arent that short priced compared to the real odds in most of the games

and as I say that he goes from unlosable lead to sieging up on top of his depots and letting lings into his main.