This thread is absolutely ******ed on both sides.

The OP makes it clear that I won $0 yet you have posted in this thread 5+ times saying the same thing?

I never claimed to make $$$ off of it yet you act like you have caught me in some sort of lie.

I don't understand this thread's title. What exactly is being shipped?

Pride people, pride.

Then why does it deserve its own thread in Sports Betting? And as Warteen said above, what are you shipping? Monopoly money?

these type of bets are awesome cause if you get it wrong, no one remembers or cares

i predict the knicks will trade stephon marbury's expiring contract to the heat for shaq, sign shaq to a 10 year 250 million deal then close out the season 41-0 and go on to win the nba championship

can someone please bump this thread around nba finals time (knicks vs spurs)

QFT. Ship Monies or STFU.

Yeah, but if didn't make a bet for money, would you consider hedging if the knicks traded the contract and signed Shaq and were about ready to start the finals?

If recent history is any indicator, this thread makes the Giants a lock to win the SB imo

Unless it actually makes the Pats a lock since OP didn't bet any real money...

Hey OP - which do you value more: money or e-peen length? (The outcome of the Super Bowl may well rest on the answer to this question.)

I should also add that if the OP had bet real money and posted this, the Giants would be the all-time lead-pipe electronic surveillance device lock of the millennium.

I don't see anything that specifically says WIN the superbowl, and the undefeated thing was an aside, so I'm gonna go with no.

Anyways, I think it's kinda cool. It was a bold overall prediction, and you hit, so sure, e-peen is swelled. I was also big on Moss and NE, but at least I made some $$$ on it. (THANKS THREMP!)

OP, aren't you the science guy? Pretty scienceless thread for the science guy...

FWIW, That bet stands to anyone who wants to take it. Holla.

Kubiak projections rounded in my favor, you need to hit all 3 to win. Even money. Enjoy!

He shoulda stuck to backing up Elway, cuz his predictions blow.

Better summary of old thread:

BillNye: ZOMG, Patriots are so good, they're going to go undefeated
iggymcfly: I'll give you 20:1 that they don't.
BillNye: Sounds great!
iggymcfly: All right, book it.
BillNye: Well, you mean 16-0 right?
iggymcfly: No, I mean 19-0, why wouldn't the playoffs count?
BillNye: Well no one's ever gone 19-0 before, let me think about it and get back to you when the season starts.

(crickets)

OP is an idiot and a loser and that annoying friend who always says 'I told ya so', and often isn't that annoying friend who always says 'I told ya so' because he has no friends and someone that gets upset when threads turn to coffee talk and hates run on sentences.

Not that I want to get into this debate again, and I'm not sure exactly where you are going with this, but comparing me to the OP of this thread if idiotic. I said several times that I didn't care if I was right and that I was only giving input on a forum that has helped me in the past, sorry if it came out differently. The only part that annoyed me was people relentlessly flamed me without refuting any of the specific points I made (I made an assload of them.)

Anyway, I'm not saying it applies here, but some of the attacks on posters that are only trying to contribute makes zero sense to me, and I don't see how it helps at all.

Yeah, you don't really understand the concept with any depth so I wouldn't really expect you to "get it".

I'm sure you're trying to "help", but whatever. Trying reading a Taleb book.

Actually, I did understand. 27-3, gotta go 46-6, have a record setting PD so 10% or more makes sense right? I like how you make all these assumptions about people when you dont know **** about them. Probably is the reason everyone thinks you are a douche.

EDIT: Also, stick to sports you know. You won't see me in a Baseball or Hockey thread cause I don't know ****. You have admitted you know nothing about basketball so stay out and stop thinking you are better than everyone.

ug i bet my friend after week 3 that the pats wouldnt go undefeated, giving him 10-1 on 500. my roommate bet him 10k to his 1k, and i tried to bet more but he wouldnt go for it (lucky me) my roommate also wins 23k on his preseason giants SB champs bet (45-1 on bodog i think, bad odds but he is giants fan) soo, he aint gon' be too happy when them giants lose.

Its an underlying principle that has little to do with the sport in question. Crockpot's post explained it and its applicable to anything from handball to darts to chess.

When someone's performance is substantially deviant from their predicted performance, it is likely that their predicted performance is off and higher or lower than thought to be. You instead focus on "watching games" and "making lines" without even considering fat tailed distributions.

So in actuality you should be taking into consideration the amount of times they are substantially better or worse than believed (which is whats Dudd's analysis consisted of). The same thing can be done for the Patriots or Tiger or Roger, or Kenji Tsumura. Its the fact that you can't understand this when clearly presented that makes you an idiot.

You and him are alike in that you don't understand the theoretical underpinnings of what you're trying to predict. To link again a much better explanation above:

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2007...-us-about.html


Note: I'd like to point out that instead of alluding you people thinking you're an "idiot". I am calling you an idiot for not understanding and being ignorant in the face of information that could help you. LOL @ you.

See thats the thing. I did understand all of that, you assumed I didn't. You didn't take the time to understand anything I was saying because you think I'm a square etc. Fair enough, nothing I say is going to change your opinion.

However to be clear you don't even need to watch the games, if you have a decent grasp of the strengths of the teams in the nba you could take a look at the boxscores and see that the chances were pretty slim (and that their strength relative to the rest of the nba was in fact not as big everyone thought it was, and this was when they were 27-3.) And a ton of other things including just about ALL of their difficult road games still remaining.

But forget about all that (as I've said all of that is much less important than the other points I made,) my biggest point wasn't about any of this, it was the most important point which I repeated 10+ times in the thread which you and others chose to ignore. In short, you were being much more ignorant than I was, I understand you don't care but it's the truth.

Anyway, I don't wish to derail this awesome thread any further, all I really was saying is don't bash people you don't take the time to understand. Or do bash them I guess, it's the internet. And yes, I'm always open to info that will help me, it should be the point of this forum.

Also, their start wasn't a huge surprise to me with their opening schedule. Ok I'm out now for the night.

I predict the Chicago Cubs will go 117-47. I will give anyone 1500-1 odds. Wagers must be made in wooden nickels (although I prefer wooden e-nickels for the added security), otherwise no action.

LOL at anything in sports being leptokurtotic.

BOOK IT! For like, 1 million wooden nickels.

Awesome, typo or overlooked adding error guarantees my win. Gonna build me a row boat, biatch.