I decided to go ahead and premature this post 2 weeks early after the Giants won the NFC and not the Packers / Cowboys.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1

OP by Billnye:
"Great team + did the best in the FA market this year + decent draft + Randy Moss.

I'd take some pretty weak odds on undefeated."

-This post was made long before preseason even began. iirc the day of or else just days after the draft. Far earlier than ESPN or anybody began to discuss the possibility of an undefeated team.

My Favorite parts:

"No team with Moss on it will ever win a title. " - NajdorfDefense

"It amazes me that the Pats would want this guy. Didn't they learn anything from the Owens/Parcells debacle? At least you could argue that Owens played hard every down (when he was healthy). You can't say that about Moss, who takes plays off and does whatever he feels like. Odds of Moss helping are about equal to the odds Belichick has no hair by the end of the season. " - Mojo56

"No way they go undefeated. They are probably just behind San Diego as the SB favorite." - Paperchamp

"LOL @ the title of this thread. Bet your life savings on it and get rich!!!" -RichGangi

Unfortunately I couldn't and did not make this bet with anybody from the forum despite quite a bit of interest. I think the odds of a random person online paying up on 50-1 on any amount of $$$ to somebody that they have never met would be quite low, basically a lose lose for me. But I never questioned the +EV of the bet itself and continually attempted to make this deal w/ people irl. At least I can feel extremely smart even if i I never profited off of it.

Do you need a wheelbarrow for your e-penis?

Yeah, thats awesome. Move to SE?

In 2 weeks I will.

I'd prefer it for money, but to each their own.

I never questioned if it was or was not a good bet. I questioned if it was a good enough bet that on the uncommon occurrence that the other better will be in a situation to have to pay up 50-1 on x amount of dollars to me, who they have never met before and dont even know. I really think that the majority of the time I win the bet I get stiffed, who knows though.

Okay, so this brag thread is just to impress us with the amount of knowledge you have about a singular specific event that is now useless and cannot be applied to other events (as opposed to say actually knowing something about sports) and, in addition, you managed to lever this knowledge into 0 dollars. Great! Congrats.

yes, I have 0 knowledge of football and made this prediction out of my ass because blue and red are my favorite colors. Or else my football knowledge is far superior than the general population and in turn that knowledge can be applied to future football events. You're prob right tho, you seem to know a lot, I'm sure your pre pre-season predictions were spot on and predicted with uncanny accuracy. As far as the $$$ goes if you expect people that you have never met to pay up on 50x what I was risking than you have far too much faith in people you don't know.

The idea of this tread was not for everybody to slurp me for my knowledge, it was to simply remind you of the thread and the people interested in making the bet with me. As well as some "eat some crow" for the people who predicted Moss would be a non factor / negative on the Patriots this year.

You don't realize that them going undefeated has little to do with whether it was a good bet at the beginning of the year. This eluded everyone in the thread about the Celtics as well.

Results-oriented thread FTW!!! Nice job OP. Better jump on next year's SB futures before it's too late!!

I'm glad not everyone who makes a wild prediction early on comes back to brag about it once they are lucky enough to hit it. This is right on par with the "OMG 18 TEAM PARLAY AND I HAVE 1 GAME TO GO - DO I HEDGE?" threads. Not entirely the same, but very similar.

Congrats on getting one right in your life bro!!!!

Would this become a top ten Sports Betting thread of all time if New England loses the Super Bowl?

I would have paid you OP. (I was the one you were discussing the bet with.) My 2+2 rep's worth enough to pay off the bet even I didn't have any integrity and my integrity's worth enough that I've paid off a five-figure debt that I could have avoided paying IRL. If all else fails, you could have just requested the money from cmyr when I win the HU PLO tourney ($20,000 first prize).

Of course, this will all be a moot point when Eli shocks the world in two weeks. The rational part of my brain doesn't really think that +450's all that great of a bet, but the irrational part has a feeling that the Giants are going to do it. And FWIW, I think the irrational part of my brain is about as reliable as your preseason guesswork.

P.S. You should have known better than to post a brag about a bet you didn't make in Sports Betting. Missing a longshot that they "knew" would hit like this is the kind of thing that makes the average sports bettor want to smash his fingers with a hammer.

Thanks for digging that up. I actually searched for it to no avail so as to admit my pre-season idiocy in another thread that was floating around. When I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and in this case I was REALLY wrong.

I stand by my op. Saying any team is a 'lock' is just downright idiotic. Bottom line. This thread is dumb imo.

I told everyone that GB was a LOCK to get possession in sudden death. God too bad i didnt' getot bet on it. I KNEW IT, I am so smart.

Odds of you being right are 50%

Odds of something happening that has never happened before ever, despite 32 teams attempting per year (42 superbowl era years) =/= 50%.

Although your analogy is similar, it is ******ed.

I am not saying that I 100% KNEW that the Pats would go undefeated, I just think they were a huge favorite to win the superbowl. And I also thought there was a relatively pretty good chance for them to go undefeated compared to the general notion that it would never be done.

Okay. So umm... Why is it in this forum? Can we move this SE unless you wanna gloat about money you won.

Thx.

Forgot to mention how ******ed this was. Grats.

Its not in SE because I originally posted the thread in Sports Betting. I was essentially trying to bump that thread but I didn't think that was possible w/ a thread that has already gone to the archive.

I missed the original thread, can you summarize please?

What were the odds that you were offered?
What did you handicap it at?
Did you bet full kelly, partial kelly, or 1% of your bankroll?

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1

I was offered a bunch of crap, than 50-1 w/ a clause that Brady couldn't get hurt or something. I thought that was a good bet. I didn't take it because I felt like the odds of getting stiffed had I won would nullify all +EV the bet had. I don't say that because I have something against the person interested in laying 50-1. I say it because regardless of who it was I thought the chance at getting stiffed [lets say 1 out of every 5 times] made the bet -EV.

I made no $$$ off the post, but I decided to bump the thread because I thought it was cool.

If you were so worried about getting stiffed and thought it was such a great bet, why didn't you use escrow?

I didn't think it was "a great bet". I thought i had a small edge. I think that I was getting relatively weak odds here compared to what kind of odds I could have gotten elsewhere. That's another reason I didn't make this bet here. I tried to make this bet elsewhere but couldn't get any interest.

It's not like I put a huge amount of effort into it. I looked over who they played and made a quick calculation.

Okay so you won exactly nothing. Grats.

You may be unsure but here we bet in money. A rare form of exchange, but one we stick with.