Be careful. Those two teams are averaging approximately a combined 31 points over the last three games. For the year they're averaging approximately a combined 39 points.

Not only that, but both teams are running teams and Minnesota is better at stopping the run. Running teams = lower totals.

If anything, Minnesota scores a lot of points at home, 25 on average. That bodes well for your total, but not your side. No matter how you slice it, on the road, overall, last three, etc., Denver isn't scoring that much.

So, what makes you so confident that the game will cover 37.5 and Denver will cover ATS?

2 team 6 point teaser
ATL + 3.5
BAL -1

CIN vs PITT U 42

Yeah, I'm not betting on the Lions. The Saints have been crushing teams @ home.

Not only that, but have you seen the Lions injury report?

3 starters on defense are doubtful at best for the game. That includes, Suh.

That's a lot considering they're going up against the number one pass offense in the league.

The Lions gonna get "blowed" out.

I have locked up:
1u Phil -3
If Andy Reid has any possibility of keeping his job at season's end, he has to go on a mini-run. Players know this and you can bet on Philly accordingly rest of season based on this game IMO.
1u Jets -3
Wash is starting to show life but the urgency of a Jets win plus a few more days off seems like enough.
1u Raiders +3 (-125)
I think the Raiders are for real and no way should this game be Pick on a Neutral field.

Both Cincy and Cleveland are +7 -115 on Bodog

[QUOTE=Witzo;30127792]I have locked up:
1u Phil -3
If Andy Reid has any possibility of keeping his job at season's end, he has to go on a mini-run. Players know this and you can bet on Philly accordingly rest of season based on this game IMO.
QUOTE]

Reid's already gone. Not literally, but it's implied. He's the perfect scapegoat for what the GM and front office have fubarred.

Your theory would have more support if Philly was starting their starters. But they aren't. They've benched their WRs and their QB and have scrubs at OL and DT. And they're playing on the road against a team who has been running the **** outta the ball and has a strong defense, a formula that is proven to beat the Eagles even if their offense has their starters.

Even their Week 1 victory against the Rams was questionable, considering that Vick threw the ball multiple times into double-coverage and Steven Jackson was injured early in the 1st Q (after running for a 50-yard TD).

Reid doesn't deserve the blame for the bag of **** that the front office created, but then again, that's one of the perks of being in the front office -- you get to blame the head coach for your illogical personnel decisions. (See Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Diego Chargers, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins.)

Although I like Denver this weekend (Tebow, homer factor, etc) this is the first week (sans vs Det) where I actually think the line is pretty accurate. I had Denver as a slight dog the past few weeks so jumped on extra (perceived) points.

But I think this game is actually pretty close to a coin fliP

Yup. Public money has to be coming in really strong on Denver right now as well. I think it's a coin flip, too, so I see some value in +1.

Thanks, snatched them both:

Seattle +3
Denver +1
Atlanta -1.5
San Diego -1.5
KC +9
Cleveland +7
Cinci +7

would +6.5 -102, be similar value? (sorry prolly a noob question). or is 7 points that much better?

7 is obv way better

Thanks

7 is significantly better than 6.5. FWIW I wouldn't take either game at 6.5

To buy off a number like 7 would cost .20 (at my book, but I believe that's standard). So, to make 6.5 worth it, you'd have to get it at +110 or better.

Personally, I'd rather have 7 and pay the .10 juice.

Thanks

just so hard for me to go against a defensive-minded team on a hot streak that's fighting for their division, vs a 3-8 team out of playoff contention with their best player questionable to play. betting denver hard and i can't imagine it ever being a bad play

the line makes me nervous though, bc the public is clearly gonna pound the broncos here. they could have made it denver -1 and i feel like the public would still be on them?

How much do you like the Broncos without Von Miller? He's a large reason why Denver's defense has gotten so good over the last several weeks.

From Rotoworld:
Broncos LB Von Miller underwent surgery Tuesday to repair torn ligaments in his thumb.
The Denver Post reports that Miller's status for Sunday's game against the Vikings is now in doubt. Miller, a leading candidate for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, played through the injury in last week's win over San Diego. According to the Post, Miller has still "vowed" to try to play against Minnesota. The Broncos may wait until game time to decide Miller's availability.

Why is no one talking about the game tonight?

When is AW going to tell us who is going cover ATS?

The last two weeks set a pretty high bar for Thursday games for the rest of the season. Obv Thanksgiving is always huge, but that Denver/NYJ game was the tits.

I'm taking Seattle tonight.

1. No Vick. Young hasn't impressed me
2. Seattle is 3-1 ATS as home dog and 6-3-1 ATS as dog
3. Philly is 3-6 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as road favorite.

Seattle is pretty unpredictable, but with a beat up Philly team without some key starters, and how tough it can be to play in Seattle, I gotta take Seattle.
Seattle is missing Rice, but I think their D coupled with the Philly injuries should equal this out.

i think he will play. Just in from pft

That kind of play has been par for the course for Miller this season. He’s been a big reason why the Broncos defense has turned things around from their poor performance in 2010 and he’s the leading contender for Rookie of the Year as a result. Losing him would be a huge blow for the Broncos, but his chances of playing sound pretty good at this point.

Per Jones, this kind of injury and operation would normally keep a player out at least a week. Miller has vowed to play and his ability to play with the injury last week bodes well for his chances. If Miller can’t play, Mario Haggan would start in his place.

Wow that Von Miller thing could be devastating. Major drag there.

Here are my plays for the game tonight:

Under 43.5 (-110)

Seahawks +3

Seahawks 3rd quarter +0.5 (-150)

Sehawks 4th quarter +0.5 (-145)

I'm doing all these to win 1u, nothing strong enough to bet more.

ETA: Almost missed a pretty good one, actually:

Eagles team total under 23.5 (-110)

Almost strong enough for a 2u bet.

Yep. That would be a drag. This is why I advocate waiting until at least Friday to place a bet. Wednesday is when teams officially disclose injuries, so it would be prudent to wait until at least Wednesday in most cases.

Also, players get hurt in practice during the week (see Asomugha last week).

No way, get on that roller coaster and ride it out!