Yeah, definitely. In football in particular I think that's where a lot of edges are. Like for example Denver when they were 2-3 or whatever was playing great but they only had 2 wins to show for it. Or Atlanta/Baltimore at any point this season. They've been winning but not playing particularly well. Those teams are +EV to bet on.

Example from last night would be Detroit +3.5. Houston is 8-1 or whatever but definitely not as good as that record. They've had some luck and a soft schedule. Detroit 4-6 has had some tough luck and a tougher schedule so there's no way they should have been giving +3.5 at home on a short week or been +155/+160 money line. The value was so clearly with Detroit in that game. Obviously they barely covered, but should have covered by 10+ if the refs dont spot Houston 7. Easy to say after the game I guess but I was also the one touting Denver as elite and I think they've proven they are now.

Denver is good, not elite.

They have to beat a good team to be elite.

Yea I guess your statement would be the epitome of the downfall of a lot of betters. Why do they have to win a game against a good team to be elite? Does AAJTds have to beat a good hand in a sample of like 3 hands to be considered an elite PLO hand?

Its just a probability. If Denver is 50/50 against Houston or 55/45 or 45/55 or whatever and same odds against New England, two elite teams, and they lose both times, does that make them any less elite? It doesn't prove anything. Minnesota beat an elite team. Are they an elite team because they happened to have more points than the other team after A WHOLE SIXTY MINUTES?

That's what winning is. Its having more points than the opposition over a 60 minute sample. Its not this magical thing that suddenly makes a team more talented just because they have a bunch of them.

This is kapernack's 2nd season in the nfl, and in college he was the only qb ever to pass 2000+ yards and run 1000+ yards 3 seasons. Why is that important? The rest of the offense RB WR TE O line are all stronger than NOs and an option type qb up lifts that hugely. Who's defense would you rather take. Unless NO scores 35 or more I love San Fran here.

NO to me is still a hype machine, they are much better than earlier in season but not a top 5 team but with the public they are still a title type to average fans who believeespn. Not even close in my mind. Denver crushed NO on both sides of the ball, I expect this game to be the same.

I lived in Vegas for 9 years and am a big kaepernick fan.

2nd season doesn't necessarily give you much without the game play. College stats only go so far, you know it's apples and oranges on the defensive side of the ball between the two leagues.

Will be interesting to see for sure.... a 3rd strong outing by him will begin making me a believer. I just know the Saints at home is one of the tougher places to play. If they can stop Gore, they'll be in it.

@Duke

Actually winning is exactly what makes a team "magically" better than another team

I like your PLO reference but the difference is that poker is mathematically determined and the out comes of "flips" have no emotional bearing or psychological factors. Ask anyone in this thread if they think psychology plays into the outcome of a "60 minute sample"

you look at any of those box scores and tell me they lost a 45/55 flip

If they can go into Baltimore and beat the Ravens I will give you they are really good but tbh I am not sure there is a truly elite team this year like the Patriots of old or the Packers of a couple years ago. '95 49ers etc Texans are close, 49ers have 2 QBs so no QBs, Ravens are close, falcons are not as good as their record wold show but they are probably the 2nd closest this year.

How do two losses to bad teams the first coupel games have anything to do with now? if you want to argue they lost to the chiefs then how is sf tying the rams not relevant? Also, there are few teams in the NFL that are hotter than N.O right now. SF put up a ton of points against chicago, halfway because their defense destroyed campbell and put the offense in good psition, with the exception of a couple drives.

I dont know if you actually have watched the saints from start to end the last few games, but their defensive numbrs are skewed. Of course theyre giving up a ton of yards when they're up. They were up 11 in the atlanta game in the third, and blowing out oakland. Every play in the oakland game turned into a pass near the end, and without the garbage td late they only really gave up 10 points.

Points are what matters and they gave up 13 27 (atl) and 17 in their last 3 games. Their defense has been getting turnovers lately, and their pass rush has been one of the top units over the passed few weeks.

The saints have also been winning games running the ball as of late, and ingram and ivory have been killing it. This game is going to be decided on the ground (not that they wont be throwing alot), but saints are atrocious against the run, but sf isnt invincable either.

@kaepernack

He looked very good but they were stacking the box to stop the run a ton and he picked it apart. I know the Saints D is not the Bears D but knowing they have to stop his passing now I can see a huge letdown game for Kaep and the 49ers. I hope not because I would like the 49ers to win a Superbowl and I do not think Smith is their best QB.

The first thing I thought of this morning when I woke up was how god-awful Sanchez is, and how he cost me like 4500 dollars yesterday.

I'm really pissed.

Unless the Saints can just go lol crazy on the 49ers offensively, I think the 49ers win that game.

If they can keep 49ers to scoring around 20 I think saints win.

I think Saints win.

spread opened up at N.O +2.5 thats +8.5 in SF....for past comparisons SF got 4 in NYJ...-10 at home to buffalo.....i highly doubt on a neutral field NO would be only -1.5 against these two teams

4 games at PK right now. Yikes. Still only have $ on Falcons and Chargers. Will likely wait to add more.

Everytime you post something like this, I secretly thank you for reminding me that it's okay to lose some cheeseburgers.

This would be true if he didnt bet on the Jets

Why do you think chargers?

I think Charger's D is somewhat underrated (3rd vs. the Run, middle of the pack vs. the pass). Ravens D not what it used to be and I think Rivers/Mathews finally get it going at home. Only Charges losses at home have been an ugly game vs. Atlanta and vs. Denver where they had a huge lead.

I could easily see SD getting blown out and have little confidence in Norv overall but meh, just one of those bets that made sense at the time I guess.

I also like Chargers along with everything Bomb said

East coast teams historically do not travel west very well, it usually is in reference to prime time but it is still a 4pm game.

I do not think that enough to put money on it though.

I dont konw why there is so much love for SD. I watch the AFC West the closest all year long and I just know that Rivers doesnt have it in him to consistently lead his team. When he makes a bonehead play, it pretty much goes downhill from there. Going by trends, the good pick is SD but I just cant put money on Rivers.

I've seen multiple throws by Rivers this year that just look like he's lost arm strength or he's laboring or something. I don't know, something seems missing.

I guess this is a lost cause. I just don't think you can win at sports betting valuing wins and points as much as some of you guys do.

I wrote out this long rebuttal but all I can think is you are a Denver troll trying to move lines or something.

Games are not played on paper and part of the benefit of watching the games you can not only see what really happened but after seeing a team get crushed you can use that information to form a more accurate team strength to assign them a more accurate pregame "Win %"

also as long as we are challenging our sports betting prowess....

Care to make a friendly wager of pride?

Pick ATS for the rest of the year as many or as few of games as we choose 1-5 units publicly in these threads tracking win loss and units won.

Ahhh - fighting words (sports betting style) lol!

GL boys...

thank you!!

My patented B^2* system vs his Tons of Math system

*It is top secret

I find pride is way more expensive than $

Troll? I don't need to move the lines, they're already so bad in Denver games - or they were at least before the last week or two.

Games not being played on paper is besides the point. I'm not arguing that they are, I am just saying, that if you're trying to make a +EV bet, betting it based on whats down on paper is the best way to go. You can't just make observations, watch highlights, and look at win/loss records and be a winning sports better. How many people do you think do that and how many of those people win longterm? Your eyes are more prone to being tricked by false perceptions whereas statistical data is not.

As for your challenge, I'm good with that.

Only game I'm betting this week:

5 units 49ers -1