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09-17-2011 , 11:32 AM

#76

muddbutt

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 238

Got psu -7 with my boy...I really have a passionate hate for psu but He goes to temple So I decided to take the action

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09-17-2011 , 11:35 AM

#77

loodachris99

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,865

seriously tho penn state needs to just put mcgloin on the bench, i hate the 2 qb system some colleges use and especially cuz mcgloin sucks..

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09-17-2011 , 12:14 PM

#78

BeL0wMe

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 521

Why are so many people on Stanford? 10 points is a big margin in games that are normally pretty hotly contested. I just can't see them winning by that much, if winning at all.

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09-17-2011 , 12:22 PM

#79

jonnyd

hey guys

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 28,320

temple babyyyy

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09-17-2011 , 12:25 PM

#80

loodachris99

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,865

yea psu d is lol bad rite now..thought powell was gna break that kick return but that was a nice tackle by the guy from temple

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09-17-2011 , 12:28 PM

#81

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,676

I dislike Stanford this week also.

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09-17-2011 , 12:30 PM

#82

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by drnkyourmlkshk

Temple has the best running back maybe in the country. ... they are a yr better and start 4 all americans and some serious runners.

Temple does not have 4 All-Americans, put down the crack pipe. Agree that Temple was the sharp side and like Pierce.

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09-17-2011 , 12:33 PM

#83

NDfan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 10,016

ND -5
WISC -16.5
IL -2
AZ +10

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09-17-2011 , 02:38 PM

#84

drnkyourmlkshk

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 499

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

Temple does not have 4 All-Americans, put down the crack pipe. Agree that Temple was the sharp side and like Pierce.

Lol I thought about editing this directly after I posted it. I meant 4 all conference players but I figured no one reads anything I write other than myturn2raise occasionally

Really hating my Auburn (how can they lose its all freshmen and inexpeince loses thought process) pick even with the 3.5 I think I'm in trouble. At least Temple is showing why that line moved so much all week. I think Stanford -9.5 is decent I don't think Arizona has the firepower on offense to keep up.

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09-17-2011 , 03:20 PM

#85

BeL0wMe

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 521

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

POTW3: Auburn @ Clemson o60.5 -110 to win 4u

I have this one at 64.5 based on pure numbers.
Cannot think of a side thing that negates that.
Should be a close game with teams putting up points.

Already missed out on part of line move

Oh well, I just pick winnerz

Nevermind my math sucks 38+24= win, nice hit

Last edited by BeL0wMe; 09-17-2011 at 03:35 PM.

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09-17-2011 , 03:21 PM

#86

BeL0wMe

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 521

One pick this week Stanford ML 5 units to win 1.5, I'm a pansy, but I just can't see them winning by 10

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09-17-2011 , 03:21 PM

#87

loodachris99

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,865

Quote:

Originally Posted by loodachris99

early game plays

wvu pick em
psu -7
auburn vs clemson over 60.5

won auburn over for 2u
lost psu for 1u
plz to fade a terps comback for 1u

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09-17-2011 , 04:44 PM

#88

BiiiiigChips

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 7,480

Let's go lolsparty. I got a bill on them +170 ML.

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09-17-2011 , 04:50 PM

#89

loodachris99

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,865

Quote:

Originally Posted by BiiiiigChips

Let's go lolsparty. I got a bill on them +170 ML.

yea i booked em at +6 rite before kickoff...havent looked good so far really but not feelling so bad rite now

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09-17-2011 , 06:47 PM

#90

loodachris99

veteran

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 2,865

Quote:

Originally Posted by BiiiiigChips

Let's go lolsparty. I got a bill on them +170 ML.

if today confirmed ne thing its that the big ten is a joke...after the u smacks ohio state tnite it will really b confirmed...wutever im oi...gna go drink n get back at it with the nfl tomorow...gl everyone

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09-17-2011 , 07:33 PM

#91

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

FSU +4 (even)
Miami -2.5 (-102)

Spoiler:

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09-17-2011 , 07:35 PM

#92

AngerPush

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,321

why did you post a pic of a gun

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09-17-2011 , 07:56 PM

#93

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

I'm a proud papa.
I've pretty much found the right adjustment to make to get lines for weeks 2-5.
The balance works out to be
(.25x)y + (1-.25x)z = power rating, where
z = my preseason power rating
y = power rating based on weighted avg of rankings out there (I like massey combined to do the work for me)
x = number of games against major competition (top 100 teams)

It's giving me about 90% of lines within a point excepting major injuries/suspensions/etc for both current season and backtesting 4 seasons.

usual caveats about using generic power rating and not adjusting for specifics of matchup apply of course

noobs might read this and think you're a genius. others might resent you posting this "inside information" on a public forum.

both are wrong.

this "model" is almost trivial. basically your model 1) rips off other people's power ratings combined with 2) a simple weighted average of pre-season projections versus actual results (without any justification for the weights chosen).

that said, good job mt2r we'll put this in our book.

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09-17-2011 , 11:03 PM

#94

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

MiaFla -2 at home vs aOSU.

To be honest, I don't understand this line. Miami was missing 5 starters last game due to injury/suspension, including their best DL, best LB and defender Spence, starting DL Ojomo, and starting QB [minor upgrade] and best WR/return man Benjamin - who busted 2 returns for TDs last year in the horseshoe and has world-class speed. In addition, another ~2-3 guys are back from injury, the week off definitely helped in that regard. So not only do you get several important players back, but you have added depth as well, which killed them in the MD game.

Mia has a top-notch running game led by Miller and James that should be able to move the ball on the Ohio D. Miami's O-line is big and experienced and certainly not going to be outmatched by a B10 line.
Meanwhile, Ohio is still dealing with their own suspension issues whereas Miami's are over except for 2 players and certainly no one near as important as Pryor would have been. This is without even getting into Toledo outplaying Ohio for much of the game on Saturday.

If Miami didn't get Spence, Forston, Benjamin back I'd say this line is about right, as it is it looks low to me even if you don't consider Jacory an upgrade.

24-6, shipz,

even starring 2 INTs by Jacory 'NOT an upgrade' Harris.

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09-17-2011 , 11:04 PM

#95

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

this "model" is almost trivial. basically your model 1...

that said, good job mt2r we'll put this in our book.

It's no Rangers -2.5 model, that's for sure.

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09-18-2011 , 03:06 AM

#96

tarzan4

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 480

Anyone bet on the Tennessee/Florida game and was really thinking wtf when their coach went for a 2pt conversion in the third being down 17 before the attempt?

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09-18-2011 , 08:34 AM

#97

NDfan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 10,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by NDfan

ND -5
WISC -16.5
IL -2
AZ +10

3-1

5-4 ytd

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09-18-2011 , 10:58 AM

#98

philfan05

adept

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 854

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThankgodforRB

Will offer you 2 to 1 on Wis by 30 if you want to escrow.

Should have taken you up on this: )

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09-18-2011 , 07:00 PM

#99

drnkyourmlkshk

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 499

Heres how it all went down for me.
Iowa st +4 W
Auburn +3.5 2 units L
mich st+5.5 2 units L
tennesee +9.5 1 unit L
Az st. L +2.5 1 unit
temple +7.5 1 unit W
(i was taking the laces outta my shoes around 330)
oklahoma -3 2 units W
stanford -9.5 W 1 unit
oklahoma st. -14 W 1.5 unit
5-4 but lost money my two biggest bets werent even sweats and losing 2 games by 1 total freaking point omg fml! -2.1 units overall or -365$
Ytd 13-11-1 +0.67 u
More of the same for me. Last year I went 43-46-3 +1.28 units.
Idk who could be working harder than me and finding more mediocre results than me.