Next fight for Gus should be Rumble or Rashad.

I think he is a decent favorite over both but i think he is a bigger fav vs. rumble due to rumble having worse wrestling than rashad.
If he can stop the takedowns he should definitely beat either striking. Always that lucky punch though.

There is no reason for the UFC to have Rumble and Gus fight each other before they get their shots.

It wasn't that long ago that LHW was looking cleaned out. Given that HW is more or less cleaned out, there's no way they'd burn a legit contender in what's probably the most popular division.

I hope they don't do Gustafsson Rumble as I want to see both challenge for the title, though it does make every bit of sense ranking wise. And if either guy loses it aint the end of the world, they'll climb back vs top 10 one-dimensional fighters.

JJ has 3 beasts in front of him, if he beats all 3 of them, I think we can declare him as the GOAT with no question about it. I mean, AS never faced this kind of competition in his time. And if he on top of that goes up to HW and beats Cain, then I don't see anyone in the next 50 years doing anything similar. Don't think either of these 2 scenarios will happen though, odds are too high that one of those 3 beats Jones.

In a perfect scenario Rumble would be waiting until next summer for his shot. That is granted nothing comes in the way like: injuries, Jones being Jones, another contender, superfights etc.
That leaves Rumble having to fight 2 times before a title shot (and most likely 3). Who will he fight in the interim? Hendo if he is not retiring? Hashad? (would they fight?) Bader? Sounds like high-risk fights for him.


May i ask what you guys see in Rumble? I see a powerful but quite stiff athlete with less than elite wrestling and less than elite striking. A man who is prone to gassing.

I'm not saying he is bad. He is clearly a top10 fighter. But people are touting him as the next great thing and i definitely don't see it.
Did you guys see his fight against Arlovski (if we are going to completely disregard his 170+185 fights, which may be reasonable)?

Glover is fighting Davis at ufc 179, winner could get a contender match with Gus and loser Rumble? I mean I like Rumble, but he needs to prove more, if he beats the loser there, then he could get a contender fight or a title shot if it lines up well

Rumble already beat Davis. What would be the point of that.

No one makes sense for Rumble outside of Rashad/Gus, and he won't fight Rashad. They could let him starch Dan Henderson to stay relevant, however i think Gus makes sense.

Jones/Cormier fight in January, Jones fights winner of Gus/Rumble late april-early June. The loser of Gus/Rumble has until oct-dec to earn himself another title shot.

Also you have OSP/Bader rising, and Rashad to always fall back on... also that's all assuming there isn't a rematch along the line. Don't think they lose a contender going this route.

Rumble could still fight Glover though? I dont think its in the interest of UFC pitting Rumble and Gus together, the division is already very thin on contenders, what would they do if they go to war for 5 rounds and both end up with 6 month health suspensions?

Rumble getting winner of OSP/Bader sounds good though

Well the Cormier/Gus/Jones triangle means they would not have to find a contender until late 2015. I think it's fine for them to gamble on Rumble. Even if he does receive (what i expect) an ass whooping from Gus he will have 1 year to rebuild.

And if Cormier or Gus dethrones Jones; Glover and Rashad would both be interesting options.

There's also the possibility of superfights with Weidman/Cain if the division is really empty in a year or two with Jones reigning supreme.

Basically: fk playing it safe. Make the good fights while they are there.

This.

The best outcome for UFC is if Rumble keeps mushing people. Rumble doesn't need to prove **** and doesn't need to get exposed. No delays on for the hype train.

This x100. Cannot wait to fade him vs top guys. Gus would be a righteous favorite over him IMO. He has almost every advantage. Better grappling, better striking, more fluid athlete...Rumble MAYBE has better power but even that's questionable as Gus has put plenty of people down.

Any thoughts on Peralta vs Tavares?

Peralta just isn't a good fighter, I mean he lost to Akira and was getting beat (and out grappled!!??) by Payan.

Tavares on the other hand seems pretty solid, with a really strong ground game, and holds wins over some decent veterans. Definitely nothing special, but just solid overall.

However Peralta is a great athlete that throws wild shots, has lots of power, and is fighting a guy with a suspect chin.

Tavares is also moving down a weight class.... Really not even sure who I consider the favourite here, let alone what to cap the odds at.

at +155 i think I take Peralta, Tavares is old and coming down a weight. Brasillian, hasn't fought since Nov '13, coming down a weight seems likely bc of getting off TRT. Don't know how to cap the fight either but I am going with this logic and going to take Peralta as a solid dog.

Ok just saw Tavares is only 29, thought he was 32+ for some reason. Anyway still leaning peralta on the hope that the weight drop is due to being forced off the juice

I'm really liking the Aug 23rd Macau card.

Going to fire on:

Pyle over Mein
Carmont over Leites

and I really like James Vick over Walmir Lazaro. This could very well be the pick of the card. Vick only fought once in the UFC I believe and he looked great. High hopes for his future.

Pearson -140
Osp +145
McMann -275

Carmont as a favourite seems dangerous here. Not sure I hate the line, but definitely don't like it.

Also don't think the odds are steep enough on Pyle to make it playable. Mein should smash him.

UFC 178 adds Donald Cerrone-Bobby Green

Castillo vs Ferguson now co-main in Sac, great news for me as I'm heading out there for that fight

looking to make a similar bet to what i made wit sect(matt brown). looking to bet 2 different bets, want to bet that mcgregor and lombard win there respective belts before losing. if ne1 has ne interest on booking or has ne input on what a fair line would b plz post ur input

misread the question. Thought u meant it as 1 bet.
At the very least it should be 10:1 for McGregor.

McGregor might get a title shot if the stars align if he beats Poirier, a lot depends on the path he takes to the title - if he can avoid Mendes and Edgar I think he matches up well with Aldo, possibly better than with Mendes and edgar even. If Mendes loses to Aldo and Edgar is booked to fight Swanson, I could see him getting a shot if he stops Poirier convincingly

Lombard... wow, I was looking forward to him facing Kim (although he prob wins that fight which would have sucked as a fan of DHK). The way he manhandled Shields though, I actually think he beats Hendricks if his cardio can hold for the first three rounds. That said, I had Maia or Erick Silva as the next WW champ a year ago, so yeah. At this point I think it's Lawler, Rory, GSP, Lombard and an outside chance of Kim.

Anyone want to give me 20-1 on Kim winning the belt before losing next? I'd imagine if he beats Woodley he'll have to beat Lombard or Rory in a #1 Contender match before getting a shot at Hendricks, Lawler or whoever the champ is. Slight chance he has to win 4 instead of 3 though.

I think one of McGregor/Edgar/Mendes will beat Aldo in his next 3 title defenses and I think Hendricks won't be champ at the end of 2015 (losing to any of Lawler,

Anyone interested in giving me Aldo loses in his next 3 defenses at evens? If Swanson gets a shot I think Aldo wins that easily so that lowers my EV a bit, if it was guaranteed to be Edgar/Mendes/McGregor I might even lay odds.

TL;DR sorry, I kinda like your side in both of those if the matchups fall the right way and wouldn't be able to offer a price good enough for you to take

Sidebet I already have

Rousey holds belt longer than Cain at evens

Stuff i'd probably take if anyone wants props

Rousey wins next 3 title defenses at evens
Weidman wins next 3 title defenses at evens
Cormier does not win a belt in the UFC by Dec 31 2015 in any weight class at evens (he's +150ish vs Jones atm and if Cain loses the HW title by then chances are Cormier will get a shot at HW, or he could earn another shot at LHW)
Aldo is dethroned in next 3 title defenses at evens
Hendricks is dethroned in next 3 title defenses at evens
'Next UFC FW champ is Mendes, McGregor, Poirier or Edgar' at evens
7-1 on Cruz regains BW title before losing
20-1 on Kim wins WW title before losing
7-1 on Lombard wins WW title before losing
7-1 on Rory Mac wins WW title before losing
20-1 on Makovsky wins FLW title before losing
7-1 on Nurmagomedov wins LW title without losing
20-1 Julianna Pena is next women's BW champ
45-1 Stephen Thompson wins WW belt without losing
60-1 Erick Silva wins a belt before losing (any weight class)

War Machine captured in Simi Valley, California http://sbnation.com/e/5773020

1u lee +274

Might be willing to give you those odds on Kim/ Esilva if you were serious about those.

I'm willing to do $100 on Kim and $20 on Silva if you want the action. Let me know and it's booked along with our rousey/cain bet (that was with you right)

I think 20-1 seems fine on DHK, Kim's roughly at evens vs Woodley, then probably +200 to +250 in his next fight vs I assume whoever doesn't get a title shot out of Rory or Lombard then about 50/50 to get a title shot after that and say +300 vs Lawler, Hendricks or the other of Rory/Lombard or GSP in a title fight. If he wins the Woodley fight he's at #5, if Lawler loses to Hendricks he's out for the foreseeable future, if he wins that hurts my bet though. If Saffiedine beats Rory he could theoretically jump the queue but that eliminates Rory as a contender so thats fine. I think Kim is slightly over 50% to get a title shot if he wins his next two and close to 100% if he wins his next three. He estimated his chance of beating Lombard at 30-35% from memory and he strikes me as a guy who gives honest analysis and does believe he can win even if he's not going to be the favourite.

Silva I just feel like if he can sort out his cardio he still arguably has the best offense at 170 he just needs to sort out his defense and cardio and he had some sort of nasal surgery from memory that might help so who knows - 60-1 seems about fair because a) he's probably just going to keep losing to elite guys and b) he'll have to probably win 5-7 straight to get a title shot and I guess c) no one wants to lay 60-1 unless it's +EV which I admit it probably is to fade me here

Also re: War Machine, they should put him in a pit with Josh Grispi and tell them to fight to the death, only before the fight starts, pour a vat of acid into the pit killing both of them. Pretty sure they're both looking at 10 years which is a career ender, and deservedly so for both of them.