so speculation now about a possible Silvs vs Diaz fight, thought on the line for that?

Wise choice for Anderson. Will be a standup bout with little wrestling. Diaz is slow, all hands. Anderson will own hard, reach adv, just being faster, better kick boxer, can kick all day with little worries of being taken down.

Anderson's at least a 4/1 favorite. Probably more. Just 70% of a former Anderson is enough to take an undersized Diaz.

Will take Silva -500 assuming he can walk

Wouldn't touch Anderson in his first fight back. Been dropped in back to back fights. Lost 2 straight after being known as the best in the world for years. That has to mess with your confidence. Who knows what Anderson we see.

Also guys sometimes just lose their chins after being KOd for the first time. A recent example of how bad it can be is Grey Maynard. Not sure Anderson can even be hit anymore.

Great stylistic match for Anderson, but I would take Diaz at +275 if it is Anderson first fight back.

Also Diaz is just 1 of 4 names Ed Soares threw out there, and nothing said by Diaz. So probably not going to happen

I wouldn't take Diaz before +500 (edit +700 prob more realistic)

Silva is comfortable at 205 and Nick is a natural 170lb fighter. Nick focuses on his boxing and will have a huge reach disadvantage...... He is drawing dead here and coming off a much longer layoff than silva

Ridiculous fight absolutely no way UFC should put it on.

Aggressive come forward volume striker against the greatest technical striker of all time. Then you also have the weight difference.
I'd take Silva at around -500 or less even if he's lost some of his movement, timing its still a great style match up for Anderson.

I dont think its as absurd as it seems. Anderson is 39, after 2 rough losses, serious injury and a long break. Diaz with a long break too, but he's a stamina freak and much younger

Wrt weight difference, yeah Anderson is a natural 200lber but Diaz is also around a 190lber, the difference isnt that huge

yoyobo - Diaz said he will take the fight if 'the price is right'

Silvas natural walk around weight is 220-230 it's a huge advantage. Thats why GSP didn't want the super fight.

Rumours that Bagautinov and Khabilov got into a fight at Jacksons gym. Apparently Khabilov put a beating on him. Makes me want to load up on might mouse as that's a pretty bad way to prepare for an upcoming fight both physically and mentally.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/6/4/...s-gym-mma-news

+1 you never know when a champ is old, lost his title, motivation etc.
as it was to Roy Jones Jr, Emelianenko and other champs in different martial arts, they just lost 1st time and fall apart.

and to Silva's natural weight - it might be natural for him on an average day, but he looks like 12+% body fat at 185 so he is not ripped like lets say other 85% fighters.
I'd say him and Diaz would weight the same at the same body fat %

+1 betting on meza, to much brand name in this line

1u sanchez
1u meza
4u Henderson, Khabilov is just not the guy, Nurmagomedov is

There is a huge size difference between the 2 of them, Silva could no way make 170 now and Diaz makes it with ease. Silva is dominant (and still looks big)when he fights at 205, Diaz would be crushed in that division.

Put 2u on Eric Prindle +200

He is a HW with A lot of power, and a pretty good boxing game fighting a striker that has been KO'd in 11 if 14 losses.

If Thompson can take Prindle down he will win, as Prindle is terrible on the ground. However I see Thompson having early success on the feet, and getting caught.

I agree with Pringle at that price.

Thompson hasn't been very active and has only had one fight (vs a no wiki) since 2012

Jones Gus 2 official for September

Will take Gus at over +275, Jones has been acting strangely around this fight. Think Gus is in his head, obviously Jones is still the favorite.

In a can vs supercan battle... I don't even know what will happen but I think Prindle is SO bad at MMA (and on a 1-4 streak) that i'll take the guy who had a 1-8 run not that long ago, I think Thompson wins but at HW with both fighters being sub-Bellator level I suppose it's better to bet on dogs than favs.

Meza +416 btw, if it heads back down to +400 ill fire otherwise i'll go last minute as I expect ridiculous steam to keep coming on Pettis. No way he wins 4 in 5 vs any UFC caliber fighter at the moment, he has huge potential but he's still so green

A lot of the media about this fight has been pretty ridiculous. Jones was in the middle of a contract negotiation during the time people were on him for not signing the contract.

Wouldn't take any if that into consideration.

Honestly I think I might take Gus at +200 even, Jones is clearly scared to fight him after last time and it'll come down to which of them has improved more since their first fight given it was so close (assuming Gus has still been drilling his TDD and can avoid the takedown I think he can get it done)

Just placed 2 teamer parlay. Feel confident about this one.

Took
Brazil (money line) win vs Croatia in first match with Henderson

Go Bendo!

Time to learn how to count odds. Thank god there are converters.

Wager 50€

ASS probabilities are as follows :

EDWARDS 44% -DRAW 2% HALLMANN 54% - 2.27 / 1.85 - +127 / -117
DOS ANJOS 61% -DRAW 2% - HIGH 38% - 1.64 / 2.7 - -156 / +170
DODSON 63% - DRAW 2% - MORAGA 35% - 1.59 / 2.86 - -170 / +186
SANCHEZ 49% - DRAW 2% - PEARSON 49% - 2.04 / 2.04 - +104 / +104
HENDERSON 48% -DRAW 2% - KHABILOV 50% - 2.08 / 2.0 - +108 / +100

Don't know how you are supposed to take into account, draws/DQs/NCs in your probabilities.

I backed each fighter with ten euros on Betfair. Got Edwards at 2.56/+156. High at 3.5 /+250. Moraga 5.0 /+400. Sanchez 2.6 /+160. Khabilov 3.0 /+200. All at better price than my ass probabilities tell me.

???????????

Profit

Don't agree with your capping of the fights, but if you feel you are accurate, you should probably go much bigger on Moraga/Sanchez.. And really big on Rustam

That seems like a reasonable solution. This looks like 2 more wins for Brown to seal it. (toughest 2 wins of his life though)

I should bet most of my money on Moraga. Then Khabilov. Then High. Then Sanchez. And least on Edwards.

Differences in my odds versus Betfair odds :

MORAGA 400-186 = 214
KHABILOV 200-100 = 100
HIGH 250-170 = 80
SANCHEZ 160-104= 56
EDWARDS 156-127 = 29

How are you coming up with the odds?

There's no way 2% for draws, from what I can tell in ufc history avg is around 0.8% and that includes the early fights where it was much easier for a fight to end that way.

Independently verified them by thinking of them.

EDWARDS vs HALLMANN +127 / -117

This is evenly matched. On the ground Hallmann has a slight edge. Looks to be the stronger one. Don't think there are huge differences in their technique on the ground. I give slight edge to Edwards on the stand up. He has some flashy techniques on the feet. Overall Hallmann is younger, hungrier so small edge goes to him.

SANCHEZ vs PEARSON +104 / +104

I view this as a coinflip. Two knuckleheads that want to brawl. Alot of the time these would be brawl fights get too hyped. The other party thinks better of it and takes few steps back or tries to get the takedown. But with these two their fight IQ being so low I see them just biting down their mouth piece and slugging it out. The one who connects first wins.

HIGH vs DOS ANJOS +170 / -156

Could be a boring fight. Dos Anjos can breathe little bit easier now when he is not totally outclassed on the ground, like in his last fight againts Nurmagomedov. May be able to sunk in some submission at some point. On the feet I don't seem too much happening. Not world class stand up fighters.

KHABILOV vs HENDERSON +100 / +108

Dagestani hype is real. I give the wrestling/ground fighting edge to Khabilov. Henderson seems to give up positions alot and if Rustam gets hold of him he is taking Benson's back. And Henderson was tapped out by a BJJ blue belt two fights ago. On the feet Henderson dominates. But can he knock him out ? And if it goes to a decision he is going to lose it one day.

DODSON vs MORAGA -170 / +186

Dodson is fast. Stand up goes to him. But this is would be a good time for him to underestimate the opposition. He is allready thinking that after he beats Demetrious for the title, he will ask to fight TJ Dillashaw to take the bantamweight strap aswell. There is a chance that Moraga could take Dodson down if he gets too flashy.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...umbers-updated

This article said that in 546 fights there were three DQs, three draws and 2 NCs. 8/546 = 0,015 = 1,5%