i think the bird fight not going the distance...imo bird by sub ,idk his opponent can stop the tkd

this card is legit af. am excited, even if the main event is just a "How long does it take Jon Jones to win" special.

Just watched the Holloway v Poirier presser.

I like Poirier, he's done really well since his Conor loss, but is he the type of fighter that's really good, almost elite, but just misses that something to be considered elite. I guess we'll find out soon, I like him but I am struggling to see a path to victory. Max can take a hell of a punch, his cardio is outstanding, while Dustin's is questionable, his fight iq is top notch, I think he stops Poirier tbh, I don't think Poirier can go 5 rounds with Max. So unless Dustin gets lucky, it's Max inside the distance, most likely by tko.

I think Usman beats Woodley, now unless I am completely wrong about this but I think the wrestling will be cancelled out, sure just pure wrestling Woodley all day but this is MMA and Woodley cant go 5 rounds wrestling, heck he can't even go 3. I don't think Woodley makes this a wrestling contest but when he does I think Usman has enough to keep him at bay.

Usman got volume and cardio, that' really all you need vs a guy like Woodley. And of course you need to fade that big overhand. The blueprint is to tire Woodley in the 1st 2 rounds, then his overhand becomes easy to read, I'm surprised nobody has exposed him yet. Usman gets it done imo.

I am leaning Gastelum, I think he's tough match up for Stylebender.

Dang just looked at the odds of Jones to win by Dec, it's at 8.5, that's got to be value. Not like Lion heart got a glass chin or massive cardio issues. CAn see this going the distance, heck I can see Lionheart finishing Jones... Lets goooo!!!

Lionheart will finish Jones in the 4th or 5th though!!!

smith can't wrestle guys... this is a no brainer jones by tko/ko. he also has kinda **** cardio.

He doesn't need to wrestle when h'es going to put Jones's pico lights out!!

i like your gumption but he has a nonzero chance of winning. it would be one the biggest underdog main event hits ever

jones has looked beatable against maybe gustaffson but then their next fight he starched him.... so theres that.

Theoretically a mediocre guy could finish Jones. He'd need some special trick, a powerful right or a nasty guillotine, say, with which they could catch Jones, but it's theoretically possible. A fairly crappy all-rounder like Smith is basically drawing as dead as anybody possibly could. He's just a crappy version of Gustaffson who in turn is just a mortal version of Jones.

Agree that Usman has a v good chance against Woodley. Woodley is sort of like Romero in that he's petrified of gassing and basically has to give up rounds against any half-decent striker. Usman should be able to keep the pressure up, tire Woodley out, and steal in on the cards, but we'll see.

Great card, I'm looking forward to it.

What proportion of Smith's win equity is coming from Jones suffering either a DQ or freak injury? Feels like it has to be pretty high.

It's the fight game guys, there's no way I'm betting Jones at 1.2 to finish Lionheart. Dude is also tough as nails, he aint getting finished imo. He will finish Jones or it will go to a dec, either way I'm betting the props, fk this!

Noted non-grappler Volkan Oedzimir got smiths back. Imagine how easy Jones will get dominant positions. Jon Jones is the best mixed martial artist of all time what the **** are we talking about here? Under 1.5 rds is +135, and trust me the bookmakers aren’t seeing smith getting the early first round ko.

i'll i care about is a askren win. he makes ufc so much more enjoyable.

He's such an underdog because Jones has been beating guys as good or better than Anthony Smith his whole career. Jones has 12 straight (betting) wins in championship fights. He just finished Gustaffson and had a head kick knockout against Cormier and you think he's not going to finish Anthony Smith. Gustaffson had only been TKO'ed once before and Cormier had never been finished. Anthony Smith was just TKO'ed last year and has been finished more times than I can count.

BTW, Anthony Smith looked very nervous in front of the crowds at the weigh in. If his nerves are like that on fight night he'll gas in round 1.

Tough matchup how? Did you see them at the presser? The size difference was even more ridiculous than I expected.

Lets hope we still have that opinion AFTER watching his fight this weekend.

Smith is pretty good at protecting himself/not getting subbed (survived most of the fight on his back vs. Mutante), though, and given Jones' strategy in the last fight, I think Smith will be very concerned about the TD, so it's won't be as easy as people think to get him down. Also, Jones likes to slow cook guys, and knows that Smith likes to wear his opponents down, so I think it will be a slow pace in the beginning.

For all those reasons I'm liking the over.

over but isd

My bets so far

Askren ITD mix of +400 and +550, average price of about +440 I think
Askren -250
Woodley -160
Walker wins in r1 +200
Walker/Cirkunov doesnt start r2 -115
Shahbazyan -130
Gall ITD -120 (prob shoulda waited since steams going the other way)
Jones -769 (small risk obv but he does not lose more than 1 in 10 here as much as I want him to)
Jones TKO +100

And a few random bets with Jones ML as a parlay anchor separate to the straight up bet for increased limits so I effectively have Jones ML too

Stuff I considered but didn't bet

Cody Nodad/Nochin (I think he wins, but not quite willing to lay current line in case TJ mentally ruined him but would take -130). I may still end up backing Cody, it was the closest of the spots I didn't bet

Went back and forth on Stephens/Zabit and Torres/Zhang before deciding current line's about right

No real interest in any of the other fights lines

One advantage if I don't bet Cody is I get to cheer against him since I have to (sigh) cheer for Jones. I'll back Santos's puncher's chance at +700 but not Smith's. Smith should be Jones easiest title defense since Rampage/Chael.

Side note but thanks to this thread for keeping me interested in sports betting years ago. I'm making the most I have at any point in my life by a wide margin and MMA is a negligible part of that, but MMA and Starcraft 2 were the reasons I got interested in betting in general and took the time to seek out the skillset I have now for other more mainstream stuff. To all the long time posters in the thread, thanks for the company and discussions over the years. I've even made a few friends IRL that I first interacted with in this thread.

Swoop why do you like Woodley? You've always said he is overrated and you want to fade him in future fights.

If he does win, ITD seems like the play.

How can people get on the Askren train, the guy is such a dirty douche bag, absolute filth trailer trash scumbag. He's trying to be like Conor but the things he says aren't even funny, just all forced it's painful to watch.

You're for sure in the minority here. The guy is hilarious, and I doubt he's trying to be anything other than himself

A few things. A sharp guy I know is huge on him. After the Till fight I sort of think I underrated Woodley a lot even though I think he drew both WB fights at best. Setting aside my pro WB bias, both fights a fair result is probably 47-47 even though I scored one of them for WB and the other a draw. Fight should play out on the feet where Woodley has the big power edge. Usman could volume strike him to a decision and will a decent amount but to be the man you have to beat the man and as much as i've doubted Woodley in the past I think he's the man to beat at WW. The one concern is he's 36 but he seems young in fight years, other than the Nate KO he hasn't taken a ton of damage in recent years even in the WB wars it was more volume striking than power shots/getting rocked

To beat him you need to have impeccable TDD, better technical striking than him and enough power he respects you and the ability to walk him down. Usman may fit that criteria, but someone like Robert Whittaker fits that criteria a lot better (or a version of Wonderboy with slightly better TDD and power). A WW equivalent of prime Dominick Cruz would get the job done too, any defensively sound fast moving volume striker with good takedown defence. I'm not sure Woodley is going to lose to any majority-offensive-grappler guys who can't outstrike him.

I was always high on Usman and low on Woodley but now that the time has come i've abandoned my initial thoughts about Woodley being overrated and I think he finds the finish more often and if it goes the distance it's a flip. The price is probably close to right it just feels like Usman may not be the right guy to dethrone him (although he has a lot better chance than Colby does)

I will still fade Woodley when he fights an elite volume striker with solid TDD. The problem is Wonderboy is the closest WW has to that fighter right now and he's struggled to pull the trigger due to the threat of the takedown in both fights despite winning 6/10 rounds.

I'm hoping Askren finds the finish as I think Lawler's best days are well behind him and he won't be able to stop Askren from grappling with him but took some Ml too to break even if Askren wins a dec.

Sorta wanted Jones -770 for a lot more (only went small in the end) but I mean it's -770

There hasn't been a bigger lock in a title fight since idk maybe Mighty Mouse vs Cariaso or something and I think this may actually be Jones easiest title defense possibly even including Chael and Rampage as at the time they at least had a way to win - granted Rampage's is the same as Smith's but Rampage had more of a chin at the time than Smith does imo

I expect this to be a one sided beatdown with Jones juicing again with his 'pulsing'

Will take a flier on Santos +700 though if I can get it next fight if they don't make Lesnar or DC for Jones next.

I think this one ends via TKO in late r1 or early r2 with Jones raining down elbows from top position

Anyway gl all pretty happy with my plays this card all up.

i got usman today, think he'll wear him out in the clinch and make woodley work the whole fight and take a decision. usman's been my guy for the last few years and i've said i'm just gonna keep betting him, gillespie, and dominick reyes in every fight until reyes and GG have to meet JBJ and khabib. hoping money comes in on torres and munhoz so i can take zhang and cody at better prices. big on mickey, big on misha, huge on stamann. gl guys. also if money comes in closing on jeremy stephens ill take zabit at anything close to -200.

Man gets it.

I think either Usman via dec or Wood via KO/TKO

Just really don't see Wood winning a decision with how good of a pressure fighter Usman is. If it goes 5 rounds then Usman likely did enough to win unless he has to fade some 10-8's.