Agreed was planning on going large on Gastelum and Scoggins. I will now only put a small bet on Gastelum.

Anyone know anything about Strickland? I think McDaniel is pretty terrible and Strickland's record is inconclusive (unbeaten, but most wins vs cans)

I really like Rick Story as a dog here. THis is gonna be a dogfight, back and forth, I'm pretty sure.

Adding:
3u Shields/Lombard goes the distance +150
2u OSP/Krylov ITD -190
1u OSP ITD +!00
2u Rick Story avg +120
2u Scoggins/Campuzano u2.5r avg +163

Going big on this card.

Bubba, Story, Krylov, Shields, Sanchez, Woodly. All underdogs?? This seems crazy to me. Those might be my only 6 bets of the card. No way more than 3 of them lose. Wouldn't be at all shocked if all 6 win either.

Bubba is about as underrated as they come. Guy looked terrible on TUF, but is a pretty talented dude. Will be happy to take him at + money.

Also Rick story should have no problems with Gastelum, love his price.

I think Kelvin Gastelum is way better than he is getting credit for

That said Rick Story is getting underrated too

This one could easily be FOTN. Looking forward to it. I think I'll go with Story as his experience might play a factor.

Gastelum seems to be a talented guy but man Rick Story is a tough SOB, he doesn't give it away. He will be in there scrapping, you are gonna have to take the W from him. THink it will be close.

Both are tough guys and i think they might neutralize each other in wrestling and conditioning, but i think kevins standup is going to be the difference.

I'm kinda surprised Gastelum is the fav to be honest I was hoping to play him as a dog

Considering a play on Pennington at +240 apparently she will have a big size and reach advantage

If she fights like she did in the TUF fight she lost then yeah she loses but if she fights like she did against Duke on TUF I like her as a dog with a size advantage

Pennington was pretty bad i thought

Andrade has the best hands in the division and Pennington literally has nothing.

I'll do the same thing I did when he fought Maia...-220 for Shields is free money. Biggest bet of the year 12u. I can't believe he is a bigger dog to Lombard lol. I hate comparing fights but see Shields v Henderson for outcome of this fight. Actually, Shields may finish this one by sub, but probably via UD

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Oh you mean the fight where Shields got knocked out cold then woke back up when he hit the ground? That's what this is gonna look like? Seems like a weird spot for a 12u play for sure.

Who one that one? I mean he took a H bomb, didn't get KO'd and then dominated the rest of the fight.

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12u because "see Shields v Hendo" ?? Do you think HL is going to have a bad weight cut? Do you think he will gas? Genuinely curious because Hendo and Lombard are nothing alike apart from a grappling based background.

Lol no! Reason being Shields is a better fighter. While his style is very boring, its very very effective. His fighter IQ is also amazing. The reason I brought up the Henderson fight is because the only way that Lombard wins the fight is it be hits the hay maker and shields have proof that he can not only take a haymaker but also stay away from one. Shields will use his wrestling and it will be very easy for him to take down Lombard in the second and third round. Lombard is going to punch himself out in the first round and his cardio will diminish, then in the second and third round Shields will use his lay and pray method for an easy 30 27 or 29 28 unanimous decision. People will never understand how much value Shields has. They just keep making him the underdog he just keeps winning fights. I mean he lost to GSP, but that is expected when someone does everything better than you.

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Not to mention beat Paul Daley... I'm just making a point that he has beat similar type fighters with his ability to stay away from the bomb can use his fight IQ and wrestling.

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I agree that he can stay away from the power shot. What most people don't talk about is his kicking game. He does a very good job at keeping distance with weak kicks. Fighting someone like Lombard who fails to throw in combinations this could be a key factor.

Don't see how the Henderson fight is a good example of staying away from the KO shot though...

Yeah I try not to bet 12u on a guy if I think it's gonna look like a fight where he was literally asleep from a kill shot then woke up from hitting the ground.

It's also fair to mention that Henderson in that fight needed surgery and his game plan was to try to finish Shields early. After the 1st he had nothing left.

Henderson is also much bigger than Lombard and later went on to beat Fedor at HW if we're taking everything into account

Well he did so after the 1st round. The first round he was nervous, almost looked scared. I think once he actually took the shot, he realized that he could take the h-bomb, but also decided he didn't want anymore of it and successfully used a great game plan for the following four rounds.

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The two things Jake Shields is better than any UFC fighter at are gameplanning and randomly being in the same place as me in Vegas (ran into him 4-5x in one summer a couple years back ranging from random casinos to the gun range to a UFC event)

If Shields is capable of eating a bomb from Lombard and not going unconscious he's more like -200 than the evens i'd cap him at (we don't know yet)

Definitely loving the current line. I've actually been pretty bad at picking Shields fights in the UFC - had him vs Woodley, Herman, GSP and Ellenberger and faded him against Kampmann and Maia.

He really should beat Lombard here though, if I was forced to pick a side and my life depended on it I think i'd take Jake Shields to win. I'd be more convinced in a 5 rounder but still love the line as a dog

This sort of inference is just plain wrong. Trying to hypothesize the inner working of his psyche is silly. What are you going to suggest next? That when he got KTFO by Ellenberger, he didn't have the willpower to go from unconscious to conscious because his father recently passed away? Whereas in the Hendo fight he automatically could get back to consciousness? No, it's just plain chance that he happened to survive the Hendo first round.

By all means, talk about his gameplanning and how he matches up well with Lombard, but refrain yourself from posting these groundless theories.