Which Silva??? lol I am putting 10 units on Antonio Silva. I think alot of peoples view on him is jaded because he got ko'd by cormier and cain. So would almost everyone else. A.Silva is going to push him against the wall and use it very well. Silva by Shhhhh.... go to sleep.

Your crazy... no one has ever won by chin. Anderson's strikes will take down his power bar like Zangief's pile driver on Streetfighter. Save your $ man. It's going to look like pros vs joes.

Hes talking about whether it goes the distance not whether bonnar will win

I personally may take the over if they set it at 1.5 rounds which is what i'd expect. If Bonnar gets TKO'd I think it'll be in the second or third. I wouldn't be that surprised to see him take a lot of punishment enroute to a 27-30 but he has one hell of a chin.

I'm kinda leaning Antonio Silva as well, I think he's a very slight dog but not as much as the odds suggest. His chin is bad, but Browne's flash KO on Struve is his only impressive win really, Griggs had only beat cans and that was his only other impressive performance, he looked awful against Kongo.

Bigfoot did beat Fedor and while Bigfoot is not a top 5 HW by any means, he's a big guy and I think he'll win a lot if Browne doesn't come out aggressively and put him out cold early in the first

No way in hell I would be betting Anderson Silva. Dude is 37 and a half years old and unless you expect him to continue being King of the Middleweights when 50 years old, he is going to decline at some point. Whether that is now or later is impossible to say but it will happen.

Not that Bonnar is a spring chicken either. As I said earlier I wish they'd put Silva up against a decent LHW so I could take the LHW. I can't do that with Bonnar (though I may put a small for-fun bet on). But at -1200 or whatever there is way too much risk of something random going wrong. Fight not to go distance might be a decent bet if you want to get involved, which personally I don't.

AS has to have a very bad day and Bonnar a perfect training camp and then a perfect fight he wants to win this. It's not actually impossible if he can impose a grind type of fight, take AS down repeteadly over the course of 3 rounds is not impossible.

Bonnar just doesn't have the style or skillset to stand a chance against Silva. He's not going to get takedowns. His chin won't hold up. Chins really don't matter much against Silva. Guys like Chael, Franklin, Vitor, Leben, Marquardt all had great chins until Silva put them down. This will be no different.

Still I'll probably pass on anything over -1000.

I guess I'm crazy, I still think the line should be -2000 here. This is AS we're talking about. I'm prob gonna pass but ...

I agree Silva's age will factor in at some point. For now I still think he is phenomenal. He mainly focuses on counter striking and submitting anyway. His fighting style doesn't really require as much energy as some other guys.

IMO Silva could end the fight easily in first 3 mins if he wanted to. I don't think Silva will want to end the fight that fast and agree it will likely be over in 2nd round.

I agree. The only way Bonnar can win is to get into Silva's guard all 3 rounds and then just stay there get a few shots in and win by decision.

If you're betting Bonnar, then id bet him by unan bc I really dont see him finishing AS in any way.

I have heard from a few people Bonnar has been training pretty much all wrestling in this shortened camp. Being a 3 round fight I am actually debating betting on Bonnar. Call me crazy but if he doesn't try to strike with Anderson I think he has a chance to win, mainly because of the way the Kingsbury fight played out. Bonnar has underrated JJ and wrestling. He is also A LOT bigger then Anderson. Obviously even with the all wrestling game plan I still see him as a big dog, but in a 3 round fight I like him at +880.

Thing about fights this unbalanced, or any sporting competition this unbalanced really, is that you really have to factor in stuff that nobody can see coming. We just had Belfort v Jones where Belfort was incredibly close to submitting Jones with an armbar. Who saw that coming? Consensus before the fight was all that Belfort had a "puncher's chance", nobody saw him submitting Jones. Possibilities in this fight for stuff that nobody sees coming is maybe that age is catching up with The Spider, that Bonnar is just too heavy for him and that is too much of a factor, that Bonnar has trained some specific submission that he sees as a potential opening against Silva (as Belfort clearly had vs Jones), and so on.

If you're going to bet Bonnar, I absolutely think you want to include everything that people think is "impossible", including him finishing Silva in the first round. On long odds bets, stuff that people think is impossible is where you make your money.

Like I said I am not betting Bonnar, but I would probably rather bet him than Silva (though it's close).

Just had a flashback to being in Melbourne drinking with some friends. My mate's ex-girlfriend was there and had been learning some sort of self defence, I think it was wrestling. This chick is all of about 5'4" and I am nearly 6'1". She is goading me for like an hour about how she wants to take me on in a friendly wrestling match. I'm like no way, you will lose and lose badly and maybe get hurt. She keeps on and on at me for ages about how no, she is really skilled and has learnt a lot and we should totally have a friendly fight.

So after like an hour of this I'm like "OK, come at me bro" and she charges me. I grab both her arms and throw her down into the dirt and that was it. It wasn't even a competition, she had absolutely no chance. Next morning she showed me her grazed knees and was like "yeah, I probably shouldn't have pushed you into that".

Not sure why I'm posting this other than that it's a memory that makes me smile (not that I enjoyed hurting her but she was good-natured about it and it's always a little amusing seeing hubris get cut back) and that it illustrates my conviction that absolute advantages are king. This chick had legitimately been working hard and would have beaten someone her size. I don't care how good Anderson Silva is at fighting, if he keeps facing younger and heavier guys he will eventually lose. I don't think he will lose this time, but it is super dangerous to underestimate the effect those advantages have. There are a large number of different weight classes for a reason, that being that weight advantage is bigger than any other factor in determining who wins a fight.

Are you comparing you wrestling a girl to Silva vs Bonnar? Not sure if serious.

Also, I think you totally missed out on some hidden messages she was sending you regarding a "friendly wrestling match". She was probably setting up a "one thing leads to another" scenario and you just choke slammed her and walked away.

You know she was into you, right?

Idk why u just told that story, these are professional fighters, not some chick doing some wrestling training and getting hybris. It's all layed out there, Bonnar knows what he has to do, Silva knows what he has to do and the question is simply, can Bonnar take down Silva/press him against the wall to win a unam decision. Yes, Bonnar can knockout Silva, he can submit him, but the odds of that are very slim and the betting odds represent that. In the Jones Belfort fight, everyone knows Vitor only wins by TKO/KO or submission. No one is betting, Vitor Belfort by unam decision, I mean, that's the long shot bet there. First is he wins, and then that he wins by unam decision. Just bc no one is taking that line, doesn't mean it's profitable.

You just have to take the logical decision, it's not really that hard, what is hard is determining how often it happens and knowing unknowns factors like can he take him down, how well trained is he, is he good enough to keep it on the ground etc.

lol it was his friend's ex who gives a ****, you don't do that.

The point of the story was just that size and strength matter, it's a legit point. I just don't think it's gonna matter enough here but trust me I've been thinking the same thing WRT to Anderson's age/career arc. At some point he's gonna drop off, if you can somehow figure out how/when thats gonna happen, then you are gonna be in for some insane profit.

The only way Bonnar wins is via injury. Either Silva comes in with an injury or he gets injured during the fight.

Silva's TDD has gotten very good lately. Okami couldn't get a single TD, Sonnen only got 1 in the rematch then got stuffed. Sonnen might be the best wrestler in all of MMA. So how is Bonnar gonna hit multiple takedowns? Size helps but common. If Sonnen was fighting Bonnar you know which guy is gonna be on his back in that fight.

Mark Coleman was in his mid-40s and light years past his prime when he found a way to beat Bonnar.

IMO Silva's style of counter striking and evading allows him to age well in the octagon. I could see him still dominating for the next 4-5 yrs no problem. AS is on a whole different level and has set a new standard for MMA.

I can't think of a single fighter that wold pose a serious threat to him right now. IMO AS would crush GSP. AS would probably have a good fight with Jon Jones, but still end up winning.

I just hope AS knows when to retire before being crushed.
Is it even possible to retire while owning the title or do you have to wait around to get your a kicked?

I can think of a guy...

Yah story didn't have a point, had just had a few drinks and figured a story about people none of you know would be interesting . Also by friend's ex I mean ex now, she was his gf at the time and I seriously doubt she was hitting on me. She's just a tomboyish kind of girl.

If you retire the title gets vacated.

Everyone has off days. Anderson Silva lost to Ryo Chonan. GSP lost to Matt Serra. You know Bonnar would be -450 if he fought Coleman today, that fight is meaningless in terms of analysing Silva/Bonnar.

Personally I think the true line is around -800/+800 if I had to cap it and then take whichever side someone told me to.

Also wtf is with the lack of early lines on recent cards, only 3 fights have a line up anywhere and the event is only a couple days away