My action for UFC 187. Hopefully will be some good live betting opportunities as well. I originally favored both Cormier & Weidman pretty heavily, but I hedged my bets somewhat with first and second round finishing props for their opponents in the main & co-main events in case either one of these brutal strikers gets the early knockout.

UFC 187 Risk $1926.50

Daniel Cormier (-132) vs Anthony Johnson $264.00 for $200.00
Daniel Cormier wins in round 4 (+1250) $10.00 for $125.00
Daniel Cormier wins in round 5 (+1850) $10.00 for $185.00
Daniel Cormier wins by 5 round decision (+296) $40.00 for $118.40
Anthony Johnson wins in round 1 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Anthony Johnson wins in round 2 (+700) $20.00 for $140.00

Chris Weidman (-375) vs Vitor Belfort $375.00 for $100.00
Chris Weidman wins by submission (+250) $25.00 for $62.50
Chris Weidman wins by 5 round decision (+335) $40.00 for $134.00
Vitor Belfort wins in round 1 (+1225) $10.00 for $122.50
Vitor Belfort wins in round 2 (+1700) $10.00 for $170.00

Donald Cerrone (-390) vs John Makdessi $390.00 for $100.00
Donald Cerrone wins inside distance (+115) $50.00 for $57.50
Donald Cerrone wins by submission (+250) $25.00 for $62.50
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+450) $10.00 for $45.00

Travis Browne wins by 3 round decision (+550) $20.00 for $110.00
Arlovski/Browne goes 3 round distance (+310) $25.00 for $77.50

Joseph Benavidez wins by submission (+315) $15.00 for $47.25

Zach Makovsky +3½ points (+165) vs John Dodson $30.00 for $49.50
Josh Burkman (+195) vs Dong Hyun Kim $50.00 for $97.50
Josh Burkman wins by TKO/KO (+675) $10.00 for $67.50
Uriah Hall by KO/TKO/DQ (+110) $25.00 for $27.50
Mike Pyle (+235) vs Colby Covington $50.00 for $117.50
Mike Pyle +3½ points (+120) $40.00 for $48.00
Mike Pyle wins by submission (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
Colby Covington wins by 3 round decision (+170) $40.00 for $68.00

Islam Makhachev (-355) vs Leo Kuntz $177.50 for $50.00
Josh Sampo wins by 3 round decision (+485) vs Justin Scoggins $20.00 for $97.00

Parlay:
Uriah Hall (-295) + Donald Cerrone (-390) + Chris Weidman (-500) $100.00 for $101.88

is anyone plannning on sleeping soon and waking up for the main card?

Added another 0.15u on Arlovski +355; got 0.8u total on him now

Tempted to hedge a bit on Vitor wins in r1 +1000 and Rumble wins in r1 +450 and then add more on Cormier and Weidman, as those are the only ways I think either of them are likely to win

btw Im a pure amateur in following UFC but I love it, and this night has me so much more excited than any night i've folllowed live. So many good fights tonight. I wish Jon Jones was fighting tho

I know poogs is sort of half trolling, but has anyone run numbers on betting dogs on the big UFC cards? I always feel nervous when I like a bunch of heavy favorites going into an MMA Saturday night.

I don't normally sleep in the middle of the afternoon and as a bettor I watch every fight from the early prelims on.

It's -EV did it a while ago across all of cards in 2014 using full card and just main card results.

You don't win blanket betting all underdogs historically, although they've been on a nice run over the last few cards

Haven't updated results in a while
Will figure it all out after this card.

Just 2u natal +260 and 1u Morraga +540. Need to get back into following and capping fights before I feel okay to start betting more fights.

Few last minute additions

0.15u Belfort wins in r1 +1000 (partially hedging against my Not Belfort KO/TKO I booked for Elliot; may add more on Weidman still)
0.25u Covington ITD +127
0.1u Makhachev ITD +113 (sweat bet)
0.1u Scoggins ITD +127 (sweat bet)

Might fire a few small live bets today too for the first time

Here we go best card in a while

Will be annoying if my finishes prop hits due to a fight being cancelled and bet being off, oh well

Let's hope for an awesome card with lots of finishes anyway

Disappointing from Scoggins, he should win 29-28 a lot but may get robbed here (assuming he spends rest of r3 on buttom and loses it)

edit: nice rally at the end, still, I remember when we thought he would be fighting for the title soon, guess not he looks like hes top 15 but not top 5 kinda

Lots of Dagestanis at 155, great debut from Makhachev

Ended up adding a bit more on Covington ITD, got a half unit on now, Pyle's been finished in his last 5 losses and Covington's a decent fav and it's +127 so seems reasonable

Why? Pyle's only been finished by getting caught with big punches and Covington doesn't seem to pack much power. I'm biased cause I threw a small sweat bet on Pyle, but he's good at exposing mediocre prospects even if old imo.

Pyle's been submitted four times, his recent losses are all just KOs, i'd rather fade him on an ITD bet against a striker, but hoping Covington can dominate, he's a pretty highly touted prospect

Might have been better off taking the -3.5 points at -140 with how the fights gone so far

Pyle's got a good offensive guard, but his only chance to win fighting the way he's fighting is a sub from the bottom

Missed round 3, looks like a Covington UD?

Silly me betting ITD rather than the point spread

Think ill be down like 0.4u for the card now

So close, if he wasn't so slow nowadays sigh. Yeah he's been submitted but he was nowhere near the grappler he is now back then. I'm pissed I didn't pay attention to the props or see your bet posted til right before it started. I would've bet the not Colby ITD prop to like -250/-300. Pyle was just more of a last min bet for me.

Yeah its not like I went huge on it more of just a sweat bet

Not really huge on anything this card just a half unit to a unit on most of the fights

Hopefully Natal can get us on the right track here, good price to fade Hall, Hall is obv the fav but he has a habit of falling apart so ill take most mid level guys against him at +300

Close r1, I have it 10-9 Hall but it was close enough i'd rather be on Natal +300 than Hall -350

Hall -550 Natal +400 in live

Now I wish i'd added on Natal at +400 after r1

Another close round, got it 19-19 but think Natals getting more tired of the two, R2 could go either way but Natal had a minute and a half of ground control vs only a few seconds for Hall

Hall -450 Natal +330 livebetting

Hall may have given that away in the last two mins due to inactivity and Natal landed a few

If I have to guess Natal is 40% to get the decision?

Predicting a split decision for Hall; hoping for Natal to have taken the last two on two judges cards. I think I like my spot at +300 though

Boom, always nice when a SD goes your way

Back to being up a unit or so for the card

Did you guys have Hall or Natal winning that? I feel like minute by minute Hall may have edged it, but Natal probably got r2 and Hall got r1, so it comes down to if the last two minutes of r3 for Natal was more important then the first few mins of r3 for Hall right?

Can you imagine if you put the fight IQ of say Tim Kennedy or Michael Bisping or someone who fights smart but isn't as physically gifted in the body of Uriah Hall?

Hope DHK can get the job done here, he's made me a big fan nover the past few years; i'm worried the steam is against him but if he fights smart he should be able to 30-27 Burkman or maybe even tko or sub him, he just needs to avoid throwing spinning elbows

I don't see how Natal won that. He prob had an edge for taking the 2nd but in the 3rd Hall landed much cleaner, I guess inactivity in the 2nd half cost him. He dominated first 2.5 mins then just stopped throwing, although I don't think Natal did anywhere near enough to get it back, it's understandable how some noob judges who prob don't even watch half the fight gave it to him. Hall is really, really, dumb though, might have the worst fight IQ ever.