Sass polling 75% on Tapology but he opens 1.61 and lengthens like crazy... hmm. I will still be betting him but I might limit my exposure a bit.

Omg there is Bellator this weekend too, just going to check that out...

I will probably like Koreshkov, Haas, Ould and Foster.

Well I just created an account and the lines quoted on BFO are accurate. They are SBR A+ rated and there's a deposit bonus so how bad can it be? Might drop some money in there myself.

I'm betting Nelson, he is supposed to be an elite talent.

I have 2.4u on Sass at -105, 1.9u on Hardy at -190, 2.4u on Pickett at -205 and 1.2u on Struve at +236 so far. I like that I got evens on Sass. I know why money is coming on Wiman but I still think Sass will get it done.

I'm betting Tavares at the opening line probably on Pinn (not out yet) and maybe Akira as well. Might add more on Struve if he lengthens again, if not then I may just keep my bet and take the under potentially.

You don't think the Sass line is moving further then? Was trying to figure out whether to take that now or wait. Hathaway too.

I just deposited 2K on PartyBets trying to bet a 1.45 line on Hathaway and when I tried to bet they said oh sorry max bet $65. Sigh.

If it moves further away i'll just bet more units on him at a new price since it'll be huge value, and at -105 i'm happy with the 2.4u

I think hardy will close at a worse price maybe -230 and pickett should close at maybe -240 or -250 too, struve is obviously going to close at like +160 or whatever but i'm happy with a smaller play on him at a better price i guess since he's enough of a dog i almost pick up 3u if he wins anyway

What does your database have to say about Akira and Tavares? Akira/Ogle seems like a flip or lean Akira to me and he's a dog (although homecrowd for Ogle if it's a decision) and Tavares seems leagues better than his opponent and only a small fav, waiting for pinn odds on both though

I'll take Che if I can get him at -180 or better too but won't touch him at worse than -200

Why Pickett? I have a feeling we are headed for a close decision there.

I remember Ogle being atrocious, don't remember much about Akira other than he was a hothead.

Yeah that's tilting. My whole roll is on pinn atm and tbh the only other site i've even considered depositing on is 5D all of the no name books are either shady or have ******ed bet limits

Akira has decent striking, relatively bad at subs. Ogle was just bad. Ogle cried a lot, Akira got aggro a lot.

Jabouin lost to Walel Watson fwiw (he won but Watson should have got the dec)

Pickett had a close fight with Barao (yeah, he got finished and all that but he hung with Barao better than guys like Jorgensen did even though that went to decision and he has a loss to Jorgensen) and Pickett has wins over Page, Menjivar and Mighty Mouse who is now the BW champ.

Jabouin has no good wins, has lost to everyone decent he's faced and looked like crap against Watson who has lost to anyone decent as well.

When we factor in Pickett is british and hometown guys always have a slight edge in getting close decisions, plus the fact Pickett is a better fighter, i'm pretty confident in picking Pickett to win (probably by sub, or 30-27)

Jabouin's best win is literally Loveland, Watson or Hougland. Yeah, exactly. MMAth, sure, but it's accurate here imo. Pickett's best wins are Page, Mighty Mouse and Menjivar and he looked okay against Barao. Huge difference.

Out of the ones on BFO I have Pinny, 5D and Bookmaker and have found all of them useful. I also have a ton of Australian books that I've mostly used for AFL and NRL. Their juice on MMA tends to be high but they randomly have good lines sometimes and occasionally have props that are way off (lol Rousey by submission at 1.5).

Will be betting Tavarez. Lean Ogle for the other fight, won't be betting. I would avoid Akira if I were you. We haven't seen Ogle fight for over a year and haven't seen Akira in over 18 months. Given their ages it is highly likely Ogle has improved (maybe a lot) in the interim and somewhat likely (maybe "possible" is a better word) that Akira has started declining. People betting lines as though a fighter is the same guy they saw last time out is the source of a decent amount of MMA value imo. Remember the Roger Gracie - Keith Jardine Strikeforce fight where you backed Jardine then after the fight said you were going to back against him versus anyone competent from then on. It's better to anticipate the possibility of that sort of decline before you actually see the evidence of it in the cage.

That's a good point I guess I was just a lot more impressed by Akira than Ogle on their respective TUF seasons (although neither was a world beater obv) and he comes out as a dog so I feel its ok

I'm aussie and our books are awful for the most part with the occasional mispriced line

Pretty much. The time you get good MMA bets on the Aussie books is when lines have moved and they haven't caught up yet.

Ya Tavares -150 and Young -110 added.

Got on Tavares -155 for 2.4u and Akira +136 for 1.5u

That should do me for the card, I have plan this weekend so may not be able to watch live, but will def check out the fights when I get a chance.

gogo Struve, Akira, Hardy, Sass, Tavares, Pickett

Feels like a pretty good betting card, I feel like I get 4/6 most of the time with 5/6 quite a lot as well here, which is solid for 3 favs 2 dogs and and one at evens

Hey everyone,

not a reg. here but have lurked a while on sports betting forum
I am interested in betting on Struve. What % of the time do you fellas think Struve takes it v. Miocic?

Honestly, 50% or so. The line was amazing early, and has since gone to just 'good'.

I'd say most handicappers would have it closer to 40%, but I really think Struve wins around half the time, and maybe slightly over half the time

Disclaimer: i'm a big Struve fan

Even at 40% the lines are still value, 40% = a line of 2.50.

BTW, doesn't look like books are putting up lines for the Bellator undercard, but of the lines that are up I've taken Andrey Koreshkov at 1.28.

I know I love Struve and his sick submissions, maybe that is clouding my judgement... making me want to be on him.

Got a parlay w/ manuwa, pickett, sass, gunner, and struve. Manuwa is a lock

what time do the prelims start tomorrow?

Prelims are at 12 est I think.

I'm steering clear of Struve. If you're going to bet him, I would just prop by sub at +400 or whatever but I just can't bring myself to back a fighter with that weak a chin against a fighter with this solid of boxing. Struve showed improved fight IQ in his last outing which was a shock to me. I had actually posted before the card that he could just pull guard and win the fight easily but I doubted he would, so that is encouraging for Struve backers. But he is against a skilled offensive boxer and he's probably gonna get tagged, and if you're betting on him, you're betting that his chin will hold up and I can't do that.

Stipe rocks Struve, Miocic jumps in his guard and gets subbed by triangle in the 2nd round.

My parlay:

Hathaway
Hardy
Pickett
Struve

Paul Sass and Jimi Manuwa are my money horses. Also Brad pickett

I like both parlays posted ITT tbh

Yes, of course Struve can get tagged and lose but Miocic has questionable cardio and Struve looks better and with better fight IQ with each outing. In a flip, take the dog, and I think it's a flip, and I got on early enough that Struve was +236 so that's huge but I still think there's value at +180 or whatever

Who is the best guy Manuwa has fought and does anyone have a link to the fight?

I'm on Sass, Struve, Hardy, Mills, Pickett, Tavares, Akira so far (added half a unit on Mills, not quite confident enough to make a larger bet)

Young/Peralta seems like a flip, and at evens i'm probably staying away unless anyone has a reason to bet one of them. Don't know enough about Manuwa but i'm open to either side if anyone can make a compelling case. Money coming in on Nelson against Johnson and while Johnson looks tempting on the surface i'll probably stay away since people are telling me Gunnar Nelson is good. Besides, his name is Gunnar, and anyone with that name has to be a badass, although Papy Abedi turned out to be not so good, so who knows.