Has potential, Struve +236 (fml for not putting more than 1.2u on at that price), and I think i'll like Hardy/Sass/Mills/Pickett/Akira/Tavares if the lines open where I think they will
I think basically bet on the English on the main card and against them on the prelims pretty much.
Looking at the card...I'm liking Matt Wiman, Dan Hardy, and Che Mills. We'll see what the lines look like but I think I'll be looking to bet those 3.
Agreed on Hardy and Mills
I think Wiman won't be smart enough to just stand with Sass and will get triangled like everyone else Sass faces, but if you can get Sass by sub and Wiman by decision at both better than +150 it's probably worth just taking both sides and I don't see it ending any other way that often
Wiman's never been subbed despite facing a few fairly threatening grapplers in Cole Miller, Jim Miller, and Thiago Tavares. I think he should be fine here.
Yeah, like those fighters as well except for maybe Wiman. I see mills TKING/KO'ing Ludwig, after some competetive minutes, Hardy, I'm not quite as certain. I think it's a possability that Hardy gets outworked by Sadollah and lose a unam decision, if sadollah can take him down/grind against cage and just be the more active guy on the feet.
Volkmann had only been subbed by Martin Kampmann before Sass in a lot of fights.
Wiman is the definition of 'mid level grappler', I guess it's more about how good Sass is, and he's passed all of the tests so far, his standup seems badish but he's not afraid to pull guard and his ground game seems to be as good as pretty much any other LW's
Wiman is an experienced and aware ground and pounder, I feel he will be fine. Sass has no takedowns so he could just win on the feet too.
@Swiiftx, I see the same thing re: Mills. He may be inferior technically to Bang but Bang's chin is just so worn you have to figure it won't hold up at some point. I never thought of the angle of Sadollah coming to grapple I guess I just assumed he would be looking to throw down like usual. Certainly something to consider.
If I'm not mistaken, he holds the record for most kicks(Sadollah), so I think there's a possability of the same thing happening as in the Dan Hardy Chris Lytle fight, where one guy is just more active and has better game overall, which I think Sadollah has, only because Hardy's grappling is so bad.
Remains to be seen what kind of gameplan Sadollah goes with, but as I said, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him outwork Hardy, both on the feet and cage/ground.
Just got our little syndicate down on Struve at +200. Anyone else who likes Struve I would def recommend getting down now as the line has been shortening rapidly. Getting enough on at +200 was difficult (Pinny's line is now +188). Nice work from Swoop getting in at +236.
In addition to Struve I am likely to want Sass, Hathaway, Mills, Kingsbury, Tavares and Nelson. Struve will be my top pick though.
Just got our little syndicate down on Struve at +200. Anyone else who likes Struve I would def recommend getting down now as the line has been shortening rapidly. Getting enough on at +200 was difficult (Pinny's line is now +188). Nice work from Swoop getting in at +236.
In addition to Struve I am likely to want Sass, Hathaway, Mills, Kingsbury, Tavares and Nelson. Struve will be my top pick though.
Boom. I like all of your picks (neutralish on hathaway depending on odds) and Nelson I don't know enough about. Same with KK's opponent, don't know him well enough to pick the fight
Sadly I only put 1.2u or so on Struve at that price and I kinda wanted more but it's less tempting as he gets backed in more.
Boom. I like all of your picks (neutralish on hathaway depending on odds) and Nelson I don't know enough about. Same with KK's opponent, don't know him well enough to pick the fight
Sadly I only put 1.2u or so on Struve at that price and I kinda wanted more but it's less tempting as he gets backed in more.
Lines are out for some of the main card at a few books. Hathaway -220, Mills -166, Sass -133. Will improve a bit as the lines get less juicetastic.
I will be on Struve and Sass, the possessors of the most dangerous triangles in the game, Pickett assuming he's better than -350, Mills assuming he isn't a big fav and probably Akira if it's at evens or so (i'd take Ogle if he's better than +200 or so)
Tavares also seems like a good bet unless he's -400 or whatever and Dan Hardy unless he's worse than -200 or whatever.
I've heard good things about Manuwa. Don't know much, but Kingsbury has looked awful lately.
Yeah I am for sure somewhat wary of this pick, being as how im picking against a ripped and scary looking ex-criminal who is 11-0 and is on a streak of 7 straight 1st round KOs/TKOs (OK one of them was 4:22 rd 2). Against bad opposition, but still. Hoping Kingsbury will be a decent dog or I'll have to resort to actually watching some tape.
Wouldn't surprise me if Manuwa's cardio was an issue (no evidence for this, just that he rarely makes it out of the first round and is 32 years old, so it might be) and the more experienced Kingsbury can dodge his haymakers and grind out a decision win.
Yeah I am for sure somewhat wary of this pick, being as how im picking against a ripped and scary looking ex-criminal who is 11-0 and is on a streak of 7 straight 1st round KOs/TKOs (OK one of them was 4:22 rd 2). Against bad opposition, but still. Hoping Kingsbury will be a decent dog or I'll have to resort to actually watching some tape.
Wouldn't surprise me if Manuwa's cardio was an issue (no evidence for this, just that he rarely makes it out of the first round and is 32 years old, so it might be) and the more experienced Kingsbury can dodge his haymakers and grind out a decision win.
Problem is, Kinsbury's cardio is pretty awful. He gassed horrible in at least 2 fights that I can remember.
Question is...pound Wiman as an underdog or do I expect the public to come in on Sass? My first inclination would be the former since I assume Wiman is more well-known (has been around longer, is American, was on TUF).
I think Wiman is more well known than Sass slightly. I'd expect Sass to close as a very small fav so if you can get Wiman at + take him if you plan to bet him (I think Sass will win though so i'm betting Sass, hopefully at -110 or better)
I like Tavares, Pickett, Sass and Akira (plus Struve obv but I got my bet on early) at those odds. I may play Hardy as well. Going to wait for the Pinn lines etc
Tempted on Damarques as well at that price he was competitive with Swick until the KO
Also what's ****** like? Their lines seem way off there are even some arbs between them and other sites
