Here is a pic of him posted in the other thread. There was also an interview with him where he seemed very out of it from the cut. Like smashed drunk out of it.

Cro Cop stopping King Mo made this worth staying up all night for to watch live to earn 5.80 units profit. Aliakbari seemed like he had great wrestling but zero submission game and bad cardio in his bout against Herring, so I think he's going to struggle with Moldavsky's well rounded game in the tournament semi-finals on Saturday. Likewise, I think Cro Cop is going to have his hands full with 400 pound behemoth Baruto, as the Estonian sumo wrestler is freakishly fast and athletic at his size and seems very difficult to hurt unless maybe his chin get cracked perfectly. Will be interesting to see the lines when they're released.

Rizin FF 3 Results Risk $933.15

Mirko Filipovic (+175) vs Muhammed Lawal $30.00 for $52.50= $52.50
Mirko Filipovic (+165) vs Muhammed Lawal $100.00 for $165.00= $165.00
Mirko Filipovic (+163) vs Muhammed Lawal ~$64.81 for ~$105.64= ~$105.64

Tsuyoshi Kosaka (+154) vs Kaido Hoovelson ~$49.10 for ~$75.61= -~$49.10

Kanako Murata (+260) vs Rin Nakai $75.00 for $195.00= -$75.00
Kanako Murata (+294) vs Rin Nakai ~$36.33 for ~$106.82= -~$36.33

Tenshin Nasukawa (-134) vs Nikita Sapun ~$73.65 for ~$54.96= ~$54.96

Kazuyuki Miyata (-102) vs Andy Souwer ~$100.16 for ~$98.20= ~$98.20

Tatsumitsu Wada (+100) vs Kai Kara-France $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Alison Vicente (+450) vs Vadim Nemkov $10.00 for $45.00= -$10.00
Alison Vicente (+450) vs Vadim Nemkov $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00

Satoru Kitaoka (+230) vs Daron Cruickshank $35.00 for $80.50= $80.50
Satoru Kitaoka (+300) vs Daron Cruickshank $15.00 for $45.00= $45.00

Parlays:

Valentin Moldavsky (-280) vs Szymon Bajor + Amir Aliakbari (-405) vs Heath Herring $30.00 for $20.77= $20.77

Valentin Moldavsky (-280) vs Szymon Bajor + Amir Aliakbari (-360) vs Heath Herring $140.00 for $102.78= $102.78

Kanna Asakura (-385) vs Alyssa Garcia + Gabi Garcia (-1250) vs Yumiko Hotta at Rizin FF 4 + Rena Kubota (-385) vs Hanna Gujwan at Rizin FF 4 ~$49.10 for ~$35.07= -~$49.10
-----
Sub-Total= $456.55
Sub-Total= ~$124.27

Total Profit= $580.82

smolka looked terribkle at the weigh ins, and Borg has a considerable weight advantage now. Im putting 5 units on Borg.

I was already on Borg and Magny anyway, but weigh-ins made me go heavier on them. Definitely my two biggest bets on the card now.

God damn I hope Cody KOs Cruz tomorrow night.

You have a neck tat ?

Here are my bets, good luck everyone

Dominic (-200) 4u to win 2u
Borg (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
Magny (-140) 0.7u to win 0.5u

I feel the opposite after seeing the build up.

Dillashaw drifted to 1.5 which is a good price. Already on Nunes at 2.6 but might add more if she drifts to 2.5 as lots of question marks over Rousey.

Lol. I Find Cruz to be very unlikeable.

Dillashaw is great, not white 1.5 at any of my books yet but I am watching intently with the gun loaded.

I have magny and borg after seeing the weigh ins and on the advice of Jim in here.

Dillashaw -190 is a must play. Going to add another unit that's just ridiculous. I think Cruz and TJ are two of the 10 biggest value bets of all time and they're on the same card. I think both are closer to -350 favs in terms of their actual percentage chance to win.

Magny's also clearly value Hendricks looked like he was about to cry when he missed weight, dude is ruined by USADA and the only reason i'm not going hard is he looked bad vs Larkin and Hendricks still has power. Magny dec or Magny wins in r2/3 has to be value though surely.

Smolkas apparently been depressed after the Moreno loss so I do like Borg but after he missed weight i'm just going to leave it alone. Big fan of both guys and sad that one of them has to lose, they're probably my two favourite FLW fighters.

This is what I have so far

Dillashaw 9.52u to win 4.38u -217 average

TJ is better at everything except power. He's also bigger than Dodson and a better wrestler and has better footwork and kicks even if his hands arent quite as fast so that gameplan won't work for Lineker. TJ is going to school Lineker and can only lose via one punch KO imo

Magny 1.13u to win 0.88u -128 average

Was only going to go a half unit or less here, added a little extra post weigh in because Hendricks looks miserable and missed weight plus I realised Magny has an 11 inch reach advantage which is absurd so Hendicks has to try and wrestle I think while drained from a bad cut. Might live bet Magny after r1 if Hendricks is winning but looks tired.

Rousey 0.9u to win 0.7u -129
Rousey ITD 1.2u to win 1u -120

I'd be much heavier on here if not for the question marks over Rousey's mindset, but she seems confident and focused so i'm in. If not for the layoff i'd have 4+u here too.

Kim 0.62u to win 0.5u -125

Just went small here, I do think Kim is a fav and has more ways to win, but Saff could definitely leg kick him from range. I quite like the over or Kim by decision here as well I think.

Cruz 8.06u to win 4.19u -192 average

Huge Cruz fan and I don't think Cody can touch his chin and I actually expect Cruz to finish Cody more often than a typical opponent due to the pace Cody fights at and his lack of experience against elite competition.

Props

Cruz r1 0.37u to win 5.18u
Cruz r2 0.28u to win 4.84u
Cruz r3 0.32u to win 8u
Cruz r4 0.3u to win 8.4u
Cruz r5 0.15u to win 4.95u

Cruz ITD 0.3u to win 1.22u

Dillashaw + Cruz parlay 1u to win 1.1u

Cruz+Dillashaw+Rousey+Borg+Kim+Thatch+Pyle+Magny+C arlos Jr. parlay 0.2u to win 26.85u

I am going to either win or lose a fortune tonight...

LUMPING on Cruz, TJ, Magney
Also putting sizable bet on Ronda

I do understand the popularity ITT to pick Cruz and TJ.

But to say there opponents just have a punchers chance to win is pushing it IMO.

Sure if they would win it would most likely be by TKO/KO but a punchers chance implicates that this would be extremely unlikely. That would be like saying Anthony Johnson has a punchers chance against Jones or Cormier. For example I did think Bisping had a punchers chance against Rockhold.

I could see the upset happen with Lineker vs TJ, just because TJ takes a bit more risks and stays more in the pocket than Cruz does he also has been KO'ed before.


About Rousey, and everybody saying there so many unknowns and question surrounding her, I don't really see the issue, this might just be positives and translates to value. Like her avoiding media could very well be a good thing, less distraction etc. She seemed in great shape. What question would you want to have answered? what are the many unknowns? like if she did a few interviews wouldn't the question remain? just like any fighter returning from a KO loss. Not sure why its so different this time that people are hesitating to bet and/or see value. I think it's a good match up for her and the unknowns and question with her avoiding media and coming of a loss only means a way better price.

Agree with previous posts that Cruz, TJ and Magney all seem like great plays. Im laying off Rousey/Nunes but would lean toward Nunes if I had to chose.

That picture of Hendricks is nuts he looks like dead corpse... I'm betting magny but not going to hard because like I said I seem to lose everytime I bet against guys that Miss weight n yeah magny got lit up his last fight.

I'm going pretty heavy on rousey but not really for technical reasons.... based on last performances rousey hands/stand up got exposed n even in every other fight correia included rousey eats shots wether eating to return fire or eating shots while entering clinch n tying up.... can she eat shots from Nunes ..... not many I would think by the way Nunes opponents act when they get tagged clean. But can Nunes dance around n keep great distance and range like former world kickboxing and boxing champion holly jolm probably not. There's seems to be like a theory the blueprint is out so every opponent will act accordingly, holly had a very specific set of skills that Nunes doesn't have. But bottom line Ronda gets hit and Nunes hits hard so I understand if ppl don't wanna get crazy here, the truth is every is saying they question the mindset of Ronda but I'm actually basing my bet on backing Ronda mindset, just like I U-turned on Diaz mcgregor 2, he had one way to win n I didn't know how he was gonna get there but after losing in embarrassing fashion n being obsessed with the game and being number 1 and being able to review mistakes and what ppl think your weaknesses are, you are a adjust you act accordingly. Ronda 15 months ago would have been 1/7 against Nunes, the real money line would be like over under fight lasting 1 minute. She was ko'D in embarrassing fashion has had a year to recover plug leaks to a certain extent not do media just work on game, she's lean n in shape, she been laughed at and backed into a corner and I expect her to deliver tomorrow. I expect Ronda to find her way in and Nunes to go flying through the air, I know a few ppl have pointed out Nunes is judo black belt and might have some answers but there is a very big difference between standard black belt and Olympic medalist, just like Vítor Belford is "black belt" jits and jacaré is black belt. Or wrestling vs Romero wrestling there's just levels to this ****.

Just watched the media interview with Hendricks when he was cutting weight. He seemed drunk/disoriented, depressed and out of it.

Adding another 1.5u to win 1u on Magny, if Hendricks is in as bad shape as he looks theres no way he can win this fight unless it's by r1 knockout his cardio will be terrible

Magny is a guy like Cerrone whose fights I tend to struggle to predict, but this is just a hard fade on Hendricks at this point i'd probably bet Jake Ellenberger over Hendricks in the condition he was in yesterday.

2.63u to win 1.88u on Magny now at -141 average

Cruz, TJ, Magny, Rousey. Would be very surprised if I don't get at least 3/4 of them. Let's do it. Interestingly enough I think all 4 will almost certainly win if they don't get knocked out in the first. I think this is the card i'm most confident about in a long time. Granted that doesn't mean a lot, some of the cards i've liked in the past have gone badly and others I didn't like much i've won big, but really feeling it here. Good luck tomorrow everyone!

ONLINE
12/30/2016
08:44 AM
[Ticket #: 292886654] PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
12/30/2016 @ 08:45 PM MU [24406] Dominik Cruz -220 (Cody Garbrandt vrs Dominik Cruz)
12/30/2016 @ 08:15 PM MU [24414] T.J. Dillashaw -194 (John Lineker vrs T.J. Dillashaw)
50.00 60.22
ONLINE
12/30/2016
08:46 AM
[Ticket #: 292886981] PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
12/30/2016 @ 06:35 PM MU [24421] Neil Magny -156 (Neil Magny vrs Johny Hendricks)
12/30/2016 @ 08:45 PM MU [24406] Dominik Cruz -220 (Cody Garbrandt vrs Dominik Cruz)
12/30/2016 @ 08:15 PM MU [24414] T.J. Dillashaw -194 (John Lineker vrs T.J. Dillashaw)
01/21/2017 @ 12:00 PM MU [24361] Chael Sonnen -150 (Chael Sonnen vrs Tito Ortiz)
25.00 125.72
ONLINE
12/30/2016
08:46 AM
[Ticket #: 292887074] PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
12/30/2016 @ 08:45 PM MU [24406] Dominik Cruz -220 (Cody Garbrandt vrs Dominik Cruz)
12/30/2016 @ 08:15 PM MU [24414] T.J. Dillashaw -194 (John Lineker vrs T.J. Dillashaw)
12/30/2016 @ 06:35 PM MU [24421] Neil Magny -156 (Neil Magny vrs Johny Hendricks)
25.00 65.43

Seems like the general consensus is Cruz, TJ, Magny. Do we have anyone going hard on Nunes or fading any of the other three out of curiosity? Interested in an opposing side breakdown if anyone's fading any of my main picks and think the other side is value.

Cruz, TJ, Magny, Ronda. Let's do it. Going to the casino tomorrow to watch it on the big screen, although it means I might miss some early prelims as long as we tune in in time for Magny vs Hendricks we don't miss anything important. I know 205 was probably the 'biggest' card of the year but i'm just as excited for this one and might have been even more excited if Cain vs Werdum 2 was still on the card, but i'm also a huge Cruz/Rousey/TJ fan so that helps.

The fights are tonight not tomorrow...

Well that depends on where you live. Asia and Australia the fights will air live on a Saturday.

I had small bet on Hendricks before he missed weight. Price got so much bette that I almost thinking about adding a bit more.

Sure Hendricks is nothing like he once was, but he lost to top fighters in Thompson and Gastelum. I think Magny is a bit overrated and I did bet against him in his last fight vs Larkin (who is underrated Imo) I hope Hendricks is able to take a bit more initiative and put some pressure on him and maybe a get a few TD or connect and get the TKO. I might just be a sucker for that dog money on an ex champ that not to long ago was one of the best fighters in the division.

But its fair to say Im not that confident, seeing he missed weight and all you guys are taking Magny. If this fight happened 2 years ago Hendricks would be like -400

My 4 bets are now done

Rousey Single
TJ, Cruz, Magny Parlay
Borg Single
All of above in parlay

Money coming in for Niko Price to beat Brandon Thatch. Not particularly sure why but having bet on Brandon, I fully expect to lose now.

Chael on TRT should have a pretty easy time w/ Tito, no? -150 seems too good to be true, so what am I missing?

lineker is hard to beat

is line so good on dom just because hype/trash talk keeps people betting the dog too much?

Rousey 3u
Cruz 3u
Dillashaw 3u
Parlay of the main 3 for 2.5u

Rousey/Nunez U2.5 1.5u
Magny 1u

I actually would root the 3 main fights opposite but don't think they'll get it done. Rousey by 1st round armbar is my guess. But if she can't get Nunez to the mat is gonna be a bloody night for Ronda. So Rond wins, Holm wins the 145 in Feb and the Rousey/Holm Champ v Champ super fight goes down this summer is my hope. If Rousey were to get that fight and beat Holm she rides off into retirement.

Should be a good card.