This

She looks fine at weigh ins but the line feels like a too good to be true trap

Interesting the Sherdog reviewer has Shevchenko taking a decision based on hard counterstrikes and thinks it will be a stare fest with neither initiating

Still leaning Holm -5.5 but havent fired anything since yesterday. I don't think the Herrig SUB line is quite good enough at +415 but seems close. If she beats Curran it should be by sub and if Curran wins it should be by TKO or DEC imo

I cannot fathom how Holly ever loses to Shev on the feet more than 1/10 times.

Ok I guess i'll pull the trigger

1u Holm -5.5 pts +125

I feel like I should have some straight up too but does Holm really win a 48-47 22.23% of the time? Surely not so -5.5 has to be the better bet EV wise

Interesting enough I believe this is my first time betting on Holm i'm pretty sure i've faded her in some context in all of her UFC fights to date

Considering firing Alers too but the steam is against me there as well, same with Saenz

Barboza looked better than Melendez at weigh ins, I think this may be the start of Melendez's decline so i've changed my mind there definitely no longer liking Melendez but not willing to lay the price on Barboza either

That was probably the best BJJ I've ever seen from a dog in Bellator.

Baby Joe at +1000!

Finally, a winning Bellator, despite my big bets on Rickels going down in flames . Thanks Baby Joe!

Bellator 159 Results Risk $827.50

Joe Taimanglo (+1000) vs Darrion Caldwell $75.00 for $750.00= $750.00
Joe Taimanglo/Darrion Caldwell Over 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00

David Rickels (-160) vs Melvin Guillard $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
David Rickels (-165) vs Melvin Guillard $247.50 for $150.00= -$247.50
David Rickels wins by 3 round decision (+200) $25.00 for $50.00= -$25.00

Emily Ducote/Bruna Vargas Over 2½ (-185) $92.50 for $50.00= -$92.50

Emmanuel Sanchez/Daniel Weichel Over 2½ (-255) $127.50 for $50.00= $50.00
-----
Total Profit= $375.00

Didn't watch it but wow that's a hell of a hype train derailment

Jim who do you like in Holm/Shevchenko? Would also love your thoughts on Alers and Saenz if you get a chance

Nah it wasn't that bad a loss. He was clearly the better fighter and the much better prospect. Taimanglo just did a great job of keeping/recovering good enough position to not take much damage on the ground, Caldwell got sloppy on a TD, and that was that. It's really the kind of loss where he could easily be better a year from now for having lost it- knowing he has to work on his top technique against resisting fighters and to be careful even when he's up 2-0 because it only takes a second of defensive stupidity to tard off a fight.

Added 1u on Usman -3.5 pts +180 and 0.33u on Herrig SUB +415

Looking to send someone paypal for transfer up to $200 on any us friendly book

If Sect7G wants some paypal he has 650 or something on tab with me on my 5dimes, you could have 200 of that if he wants PP (i dont want any PP atm or i'd offer)

Any reason you can't open your own 5d acct?

Added a bit more on Holm -5.5, Elkins Dec to have 2u on both and then a third of a unit each on Henrique, Alers and Saenz

Have talked myself out of my Melendez bet for the time being, he looked bad at weigh ins and i'm trusting my read on that this time after ignoring it on RDA

Added a few longshot parlays for 0.07u each and a couple props

Card has 7 decisions, 3 TKOs and 1 SUB parlay +5440
Card has 6 decisions, 4 TKOs and 1 SUB parlay +4800
Holm -5.5/Usman -3.5/Saenz -3.5/Herrig SUB/Elkins DEC +16460

0.2u No fights end in sub +603
0.2u Curran/Herrig wins FOTN +600

I'm only an MMA fan so these are my amateur opinions.
My thoughts so far:

Curran beats Herrig. In a similar way the Van Zant beat Herrig. I just do not see Herrig beating a younger, faster, improving Curran. At evens I think it's a great bet that Curran wins. I watched some previous fights and Herrig is just too slow, not enough output and if she does not get submitted, she will likely lose on points.

Holm beats Shevchencko. I think Holly beats her easily on points, I just do not see Shevchencko posing any real threat to Holm. Sure she will hit Holly a few times but she will get hit far more often in my opinion. She would have to knock Holly out and I just do not see that happening. Shevchenko just gave 2 rounds to Amanda and then only came on strong in the third, but Nunes is known to get tired and it looked like a game plan of Shevchenko to get her in the third. I do not see this happening vs Holly as she is very conditioned to go 5 rounds.

People went on about price but given the shockers we see constantly, I really can't blame the bookies. Unless of course they know something we don't.

Im stuck on Henrique v Smolyakov. Both seem to be capable of winning. Based on the price I am leaning towards Smolyakov + he's Russian, hard to bet against those MF's. Would like to hear other opinions though!

Jim Alers v Jason Knight. Can Jason submit Jim, if not Jim wins obviously. Not sure on this 1 either, Jason's only weapon is his submissions, he happily pulls guard and will sacrifice his back and take a beating on the ground for that sub. Leaning towards Jim to win by decision. How good is Jim's ground game, this could be the deciding factor. Going back and forth on this one, as I act think Jason might pull of a submission here. Thoughts?

Alex Oliveira v James Moontasri. I think Alex is winning this, he looks the stronger fighter. Moontasri could potentially KO Oliveira (but cowboy could do the same too), but as the fight goes on I think Cowboy will prevail and his strength will win him this fight, looking at a submission or possible decision.

Prazeres beats Cottrell. Thoughts?

Pepey beats Elkins. Thoughts?

Saenz beats Wineland. Thoughts? I was initially thinking Wineland might win this but if he does not KO Saenz, I think he does not win. KO or Wineland loses. Wineland rusty and from what I gathered is a part-time fighter. Saenz by decision or Wineland by KO in.

Ngannou v Mihajlovic. I might take Mihajlovic to KO him in the first. Realistically though Ngannou should dismantle him pretty easily. Thoughts?

Usman v Yakovlev. Thoughts? Need help with this 1.

Barboza v Melendez. Thoughts?

Going through analyzing this matchup now and I really like Melendez as a bet even after watching the weigh-ins. What specifically did you see at weigh-ins that has deterred you from the bet? I didn't see any drastic differences from how he looked last fight (in 2015), nor signs of extreme fatigue. Maybe slightly less cut but he is in his 30's.

I guess around the stomach and chest area he has a bit of a post-roids body, he just looks a little bit older and softer than i'm used to. It's not as bad as I thought the first time I watched the weigh ins. I suppose Barboza also looked excellent. I can't really put my finger on it, I just went from liking Melendez to thinking the odds are about right. I wouldn't take my analysis too seriously as it's not a super strong read, i've just talked myself out of it. He doesn't look too different in the Pettis fight, just slightly more ripped. If he wasn't coming off a failed drug test i'd definitely bet him, but he is so there's just that unknown factor that he could suddenly be past his prime. Just age and looking a little softer and failing a drug test stopped me from pulling the trigger on the bet.

Curran Decision - 29-28. Should be a good back and fourth. I think Currans wrestling will put her over the edge.

Holm Decision - I think Holly can point fight and easily pick her apart on the feet. Could easily barrage her against the cage in the later rounds and find a TKO.

Smolyakov TKO/KO Rounds 1 or 2. Luis got absolutely destroyed against Ngannou his last fight. Smol has great power and the fight ends in a similair way as the one with Ngannou did.

Alers Decision. Stronger and more athletic than Jason Knight imo

Elkins and Pepey could go either way, I have half a unit on Pepey via KO @ +350 so I think he can edge it.

Oliveria outlasts Moon and possibly finishes late if Moon decides to quit.

Saenz via Decision is probably my favorite line on this card @ +130

Ngannou via KO Round 1 or 2.

Usman styles 30-27 decision.

Barboza needs another good showing after his fight with Pettis. Melendez is getting towards the end of his career and I think Barboza wins this fight fairly convincingly possible finish late

Yea after re-watching him vs Alvarez i'm a bit worried about his tank but really don't like avoiding a bet for the boxer vs a kicker. Before the re-watch at had this fight at a flip but going to say it's somewhere slightly less than a flip but at the current price still having some thin value.

Thanks!

Agreed Holm
Agreed Curran.
Not sure about Smolyakov KO.TKO though.
Pepey most likely by submission imo. Or he loses a decision to Elkins.
Agreed Oliveira
Agreed Alers
Agreed Saenz
Agreed Barboza.

Good luck
I have a ton of parlays set up. Should be fun. Last time I almost scooped a 15 parlay for £20k. Got 13 out 15 right.

There's been a few pundits and analysts (particulary Connor Ruebusch on Bloody Elbow / Heavy Hands - I believe he prob wrote that Sherdog preview too) talking up how this is going to be a close fight and Connor in particular has been vocal about Shevchenko's chances to win this. He's expecting a super slow fight though, like 5-10 shots laned apiece per round, and is assuming that the judges won't be swayed by Holm's volume because she tends to miss a lot. And he thinks Shev will probably land a few takedowns.

For what it's worth, he's still only picking her by split decision.

I like his work a lot but I don't think I agree with him on this one - I see Holm keeping it at range for the majority of the time and winning through volume and superior movement. But he knows a lot more than me :P

Anywho, I suspect stuff like that may have had a bit to do with the steam on Shevchenko? Enough opinion pieces have gone out saying this should be a relatively close fight that it probably seemed like the odds were too long and Shevchenko got bet in (rightly, I think - I wasn't gonna bet Shev at the original odds, but I wasn't going to bet Holm until they came in either).

As for the weigh ins, Shevchenko isn't really a big bantamweight - I suspect she'd probably fight at flyweight if the UFC had that division. She fought at 125 for much of her early muay thai career (she beat Joanna Champion in an amateur bout at that weight), and her two UFC fights to date she's only weighed in at 134.

Could a little bit of that could be the new weigh-ins procedure? Where now it's all for show and depending on exactly what time they made weight in the morning, they could have already been rehydrating for hours.

Don't get me wrong, I still expect Melendez to have declined physically a bit and for Barboza to be the superior athlete.

I want to make a small bet Hold/Schevchenko FOTN any one have 5Dimes? i can ship stars


ps: Swoop u still using skype?

holm -170 wtf is happening here?

I threw down big on Holm at a terrible price of -300 plus the over 4½ and Holm decision pretty big hedged with Shevchenko split/majority decision. I bet Knight pretty big vs Alers who hasn't looked good in the UFC and Knight decision and bet Frankie Saenz ML straight plus the over 2½ and Saenz decision vs Eddie Wineland who got outstruck by Bryan Caraway.

UFC on Fox 20 Risk $3597.50

Holly Holm (-300) vs Valentina Shevchenko $600.00 for $200.00
Holly Holm/Valentina Shevchenko Over 4½ (-165) $165.00 for $100.00
Holly Holm wins by 5 round decision (+120) $200.00 for $240.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00

Edson Barboza (-225) vs Gilbert Melendez $225.00 for $100.00
Edson Barboza wins inside distance (+245) $50.00 for $122.50

Francis Ngannou wins in round 2 (+400) vs Bojan Mihajlovic $25.00 for $100.00
Francis Ngannou wins by submission (+751) $15.00 for $112.65

Kailin Curran/Felice Herrig Over 2½ (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Kailin Curran wins by 3 round decision (+190) $100.00 for $190.00

Frankie Saenz (-160) vs Eddie Wineland $160.00 for $100.00
Frankie Saenz/Eddie Wineland Over 2½ (-200) $200.00 for $100.00
Frankie Saenz wins by 3 round decision (+120) $100.00 for $120.00

Godofredo Pepey (+210) vs Darren Elkins $100.00 for $210.00
Godofredo Pepey wins in round 1 (+450) $20.00 for $90.00
Godofredo Pepey wins by submission (+410) $25.00 for $102.50
Darren Elkins wins in round 3 (+1150) $20.00 for $230.00

Alexander Yakovlev (+210) vs Kamaru Usman $200.00 for $420.00
Kamaru Usman wins by 3 round decision (+119) $100.00 for $119.00

Michel Prazeres (-220) vs J.C. Cottrell $110.00 for $50.00
Michel Prazeres wins inside distance (+223) $45.00 for $100.35

Alex Oliveira (-215) vs James Moontasri $215.00 for $100.00

Jason Knight (+170) vs Jim Alers $150.00 for $255.00
Jason Knight wins by 3 round decision (+405) $50.00 for $202.50

Dmitry Smolyakov (-135) vs Luis Henrique $67.50 for $50.00
Dmitry Smolyakov wins by submission (+800) $25.00 for $200.00

Fights to go distance over 6½ (+170) $40.00 for $68.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+450) $25.00 for $112.50
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1500) $15.00 for $225.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+7500) $10.00 for $750.00

Kailin Curran/Felice Herrig FOTN award winner (+600) $15.00 for $90.00
Michel Prazeres wins Fastest KO (+2500) $10.00 for $250.00
Dmitry Smolyakov wins Fastest SUB (+2750) $10.00 for $275.00

Parlay:
Alex Oliveira (-225) vs James Moontasri + Francis Ngannou (-700) vs Bojan Mihajlovic $155.00 for $100.87

Round Robin of six two-team parlays at $25.00 each risking $150.00 for $200.20:
Frankie Saenz/Eddie Wineland Over 2½ (-220) + Kailin Curran/Felice Herrig Over 2½ (-190) + Edson Barboza/Gilbert Melendez Over 2½ (-190) + Holly Holm/Valentina Shevchenko Over 4½ (-165)