I mean it wasn't like Balboa/Lang in the first round, but Nate lost the first round against Johnson as well. Nate was basically just rope a doping Conor in the first, only without ropes, and eating the blows with his hard chin, as opposed to his soft midsection.

I agree to say Conor was decimated is just flat wrong, he won r1 and hurt Nate a few times, then was winning the early portion of r2 until he got gassed and rocked at about the same time, then he threw the gameplan out the window, tried a panic takedown I assume because he wanted to rest in top position and got swept/tapped because he was rocked/gassed/Diaz has a much better ground game

It comes down to Conor needs to fix his cardio and deal out consistent damage to Nate on the feet without gassing, and even though Diaz has amazing cardio if he's eating shots for 3 rounds his power/volume will start to decline because he's been beaten up for 3 rounds. There's also a chance a Conor head kick/big shot can take his head off later in the fight if Conor's been beating him up. Nate of course has ways to win too, get the fight to the ground, rock Conor with a counterpunch and swarm him with strikes, etc.

This could look a lot like a more dominant Condit vs Nick Diaz if Conor fights smart and uses volume, movement, leg kicks and improved cardio for the win via decision or accumulation of damage but then again it could look exactly like the first fight, Conor lands some shots early, Nate eventually lands a counter and then gets it to the ground for the sub or pours it on standing and cracks the chin.

Conor wasn't decimated but by the end of the fight it was pretty clear who the more skilled fighter was. It would be foolish to count Conor out though as he always has a punches chance. Nate has great footwork and spacing though

I agree that all this could happen, but you are basically saying Conor has to do something we have yet to see him do that even if he pulls off we have seen Diaz survive before.

I assume that Conor is an intelligent fighter because he speaks so well and he certainly immediately identified that he was not "efficient with his energy" in the first fight. That said he does some pretty hot headed dumb **** too.

He won round one against a 10 day noticed, non-camped Diaz who had no recent sparing while he had come off of a full camp himself. He is at a disadvantage this time compared to last. I assume he trained smarter and better for this fight specifically but we have been surprised by awful, or poorly executed game plans plenty in recent history.

I watched McGregor-Diaz again last night and one thing that stood out to me was that Conor was attacking Diaz's lead leg, but he was often missing because he was going for Jones-style oblique kicks to the knee area (kind of trying to stomp on it), rather than Aldo/RDA-style round kicks to the thigh or calf. Wouldn't take much adjustment to make that strategy pay much higher dividends.

Back onto this weekend, Curran-Herrig is at pick 'em now in a lot of places... do people really think Herrig is that good, or am I missing something? I see this one as being pretty clear for Curran through higher work rate / better pressure unless Curran does something monumentally stupid. Especially since Herrig isn't actually that good at capitalising on mistakes.

A puncher's chance usually refers to a fighter who is worse at everything except power and their only way to win is via KO - Conor definitely has better technical striking than Diaz imo, so i'd say it's more than a puncher's chance as he can definitely win the standup on points if he fights a smart fight

Nate is definitely more well rounded, he has all aspects of MMA except offensive wrestling (and his defensive wrestling is below average for a top 15 fighter too which he makes up for by having a good ground game from the bottom). Conor is probably a better wrestler than Nate, the issue is Conor has not shown any elite level BJJ in the octagon and until we see it we have to assume his ground game is weak. Both guys have elite standup they just use different styles.

Conor winning the first round really doesn't mean much in my eyes. Nate said his plan was to start slow and pick it up. I think he also wanted to let Conor tire himself so he could start picking him apart. There is definetely a mental element to how this fight goes too.

Nate is going to be the much more relaxed guy in there. There is a lot on the line for Conor here and he's already lost once. If things aren't going to well for him early will he be able to make adjustments and push though all 5? Idk. He did bounce back in the Mendes fight but that seemed more of Chad gassing out on a short notice fight.

Last fight IMO he got got tapped cause he didn't wanna get KO'd. He was hurt but the effort on the ground was him just giving up.

see i disagree conor may have better hands but diaz has better footwork and spacing. he's really good at being at that distance where he can hit you but get out of range before u hit him. having said that conor does have a legit shot. i would say diaz wins around 55-60 percent of the time. he can win by KO he could also win if he ties diaz up as he probably has better dirty boxing. conor did hire a movement coach but i don't think it will be enough to help him catch up in that department

not sure how accurate they are but here is cage ranks take on the fight. http://cagerank.com/HR5K.G0gC/Conor-...r-vs-Nate-Diaz

Man just saw pic of Herrig today during her weight cut. looks and sounds brutal. Even with early weigh ins I think this adds even more value to taking Curran

Against most opponents I'd agree, but McGregor is excellent at throwing long attacks that can hit from a distance - particularly kicks.

Part of that is negated by the fact that Diaz is bigger than the guys McGregor has been fighting previously and again he's the taller, longer fighter in this match. But it's not like McGregor had trouble landing on Diaz in the first fight.

Ouch - yeah, that looks Johny Hendricks levels of nasty. Combine that with the long layoff and you've sold me, I'm def putting a unit on Curran...

Made my first few plays for this weekend's card

1.35u Elkins by decision +105

Elkins is a decision machine and while Pepey has good offense and isn't super durable I expect most of this fight to be Elkins pushing Pepey up against the cage or Pepey working for subs from the bottom while Elkins holds position and avoids sub attempts mixing in some GnP enroute to a 30-27. Pepey r1 and Elkins -3.5 points are fairly attractive as well here if the price is right but just the one play for now.

1.35u Usman (decision no bet) +100

I mean he's a solid favourite and I see no reason why Yakovlev is more likely to finish than Usman is, the lines seem to like either guy ITD equally but Usman if it goes the distance, i'm not sure I agree with that and think that while Usman is -200ish as the lines suggest both guys are equally likely within their percentages to finish or win by decision so i'm taking the decision no bet line at evens rather than ML at -2xx on Usman. I see this line as more like -150 for Usman and i'm not sure why it's so different to the moneyline. Maybe because Yakovlev got a KO in his last fight but it's not like he's a knockout machine, I mean he didn't KO Maynard in his win there and Maynard's chin is shot.

0.13u Usman SUB +935

I know Yakovlev survived Maia, but he's been submitted a few times granted not for quite a long time and Usman pulled off a slick sub on Hayder Hassan who granted is a worse fighter than Yakovlev, but Usman should still be improving (assuming he didn't get USADA'd, he does kind of have that physique) and I think he taps Yakovlev more like 1 in 6 times than 1 in 10. If they fight 6 times it might go something like 2 wins for Yakovlev, 2 by decision for Usman and 1 each for TKO and SUB imo.

Assuming Holm doesn't look awful at weigh ins I expect to add Holm -5.5 pts as well despite the big Shevchenko steam but who knows we'll see I guess.

[bumping old news]

this is old but ..


His corner yelled "IT WORKED I TOLD YOU ID WORK". They watched tape and knew they could punch through the tiny hole in his guard which is meant to block hooks. He did nothing wrong. Eddie just has Matt who developed a perfect game plan.


Alvarez beats Dos Anjos
Bisping beats Rockhold.
Gesh.


Khabib, Ferguson, Dos Anjos, Alvarez ... make them all fight each other. Somewhere rumored that it may be ufc show team ferguson vs team khabib?


SwoopAe -- you were suggesting that RDA did not look good before the fight in pre-workouts or was not that impressive? He always looks pretty shredded. Thought he looked okay until well he didnt. haha.

I said RDA didn't look good at the weigh in compared to usual. He looked less ripped, older and more drained than usual. I've faded RDA a lot too and considered doing it again but ended up deciding i've burned myself too often fading RDA and made a small last minute bet on him because I don't think Alvarez is champ material at LW either. I've be very shocked if Alvarez strings 3 title defenses together, he might match up on with Ferguson but i'm not sure he can get through Ferguson, Khabib and Conor (who are probably the top 3 contenders at LW, assuming Conor beats Nate and wants to fight at LW, it's weird he hasn't given he's fighting at WW and FW and LW is probably his natural weight class)

The Melendez/Barboza winner and Brooks are in the mix too, i'd have taken Brooks to beat Alvarez before the Pearson fight but Brooks did not look good in there against a 15-20 ranked guy and that's very concerning. Chiesa is only a couple wins away too imo. Ferguson or Khabib will be the next LW champ though in my opinion, and if they ever fight the winner is probably a fav over Alvarez imo. Either could have the next title shot too and i'd be fine with it

Holm -200 now and -5.5 pts is +125 and UD +150

I have no idea what to make of this line movement I feel like where the odds were originally is closer to correct and i'll feel really stupid if I bet on Holm and she loses or if I don't bet on her and she wins now. Will wait for weigh ins for the time being.

Shevchenko UD is +750 and the way the line is moving that seems tempting. o4.5 is -172 but again that's a lot of juice to lay on 4.5 rounds even though I expect it to go the distance.

I have no idea what to make of this fight i'm probably going to just bet on Holm -5.5 pts whenever the Shevchenko steam ends but not go as big as I would have normally due to the heavy Shevchenko steam.

What does -5.5 points refer too? I haven't heard this I don't think before.

This Holm line move is super weird. Has to be an injury. I took it at -230 thinking it couldn't get better. It feels like such a trap at this point cause when it's too good to be true it usually isn't right?

After weigh in I'll prob out more in Holm as well of things seem ok.

-5.5 is in reference to the "spread", similar to betting NBA, MLB, or NFL. Instead of betting on the outright winner you are betting on how much one team or person will win by.

If you bet Holly -5.5 that means she has to win by at least 6 points on the judges scorecards for you to win that bet. If Holly wins by a difference of only 5 points then your bet loses.

If Holly wins in the distance then your -5.5 bet is still a win.

PS. I think Holly comfortably wins this via dec. and maybe even ITD.

So if holly wins by TKO that doesn not count right? it have to be a decision that covers?. So basically -5.5 your saying she wins all 5 n one round is a 10-8. 50-44?

Alright well Holm came in at 135 and Chevencko(sp) at 133

Do you have to come in exactly 135 or is under weight ok?

the only thing about coming in at 133, is that she is probably a small bantamweight.

I'm assuming no red flags at weigh-ins? Didn't get to catch them.

If Holly wins by KO then the Holly -5.5 bet is still a win.

-200 Holm why am i scared?

Bellator 159 Risk $827.50

Joe Taimanglo (+1000) vs Darrion Caldwell $75.00 for $750.00
Joe Taimanglo/Darrion Caldwell Over 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00

David Rickels (-160) vs Melvin Guillard $160.00 for $100.00
David Rickels (-165) vs Melvin Guillard $247.50 for $150.00
David Rickels wins by 3 round decision (+200) $25.00 for $50.00

Emily Ducote/Bruna Vargas Over 2½ (-185) $92.50 for $50.00

Emmanuel Sanchez/Daniel Weichel Over 2½ (-255) $127.50 for $50.00

also

Have to take a chance fading Makenzie Dern in her MMA debut at these huge odds in case she doesn't like getting punched.

Legacy FC 58 Risk $50.00

Kenia Rosas (+1000) vs Mackenzie Dern $50.00 for $500.00