Machida TKO is +195 currently, add that to the decision you got in early on and thats better than Machida -300 imo

@Toerazor Varner isn't a dog anymore the fight is -105/-105 now. Yahya and Phan are about even for underdogs i'd say.

I'd most rather have Varner of those.

OK so as I have mentioned I have been gradually pulling together an MMA database. It's now ready to do some work. My approach is that rather than trying to flat out handicap fights like somewhere like BreakDownFights, I am trying to figure out ways in which MMA betting markets are predictably biased. To give you an example of a null result, I theorised that having lost your last match, or being on some sort of losing streak, might mean that a fighter's odds are too generous. I checked this against my DB and it turned out not to be true, but that's an example of the sort of thing I am doing (though I'm also looking at attributes of the fighters, not just their history). The downside of this is obviously that the market might smarten up and I won't be able to tell, but I am testing whether the biases I find are diminishing over time. The advantage is that I can (hopefully) bet profitably on fights where I know nothing at all about fighters beyond some basic stats.

I haven't analysed as much stuff as I intend to eventually, but I've looked at enough stuff to feel confident in making some picks. Rather than units I'm betting etc, I'll break stuff down to 1, 2, and 3 star picks depending how confident I am. Obv I am betting more and less based on this but also on odds (smaller odds = larger bets, Kelly style). I'm also not giving odds to take because these picks are based on closing lines. I have no idea what the lines should actually be, I'm just telling you the lines are biased one way or another in general. I am giving you the odds I actually bet on though. I would wait til close to bet but because of the time difference the prelims kick off at 6:30am or some **** here.

Onwards to victory!

Tomorrow's fight card:

3 star plays:

Rua v Vera (I took 1.285)
De Fries v Thompson (I took 1.505) (BEST BET of the card)

2 star plays:

Gamburyan v Omigawa (I took 1.617)
Grispi v Yahya (I took 1.617)
Johnson v Swick (I took 2.81, sucks cause 5Dimes was 2.9 but I'm 5Dimes busto)

1 star plays:

Moraga v Gomez (I took 2.36)

Also, my analysis suggests a small bet on Prado v Davis but I am inclined to ignore this as these really long odds bets are a terrible deal. I took a small amount at 6.56 just because it will tilt me if I ignore the analysis and it wins, but I think it is probably not +EV. I won't count this as an actual recommended play for record keeping purposes.

No bets:

Machida v Bader
Miller v Phan
Varner v Lauzon

Machida coming in at 201 is a bit of a worry. I mean, he should beat Bader anyway but still.

I might just stick with Lauzon and then do some Machida or Shogun props as I should have opened a 5d account ages ago anyway, plus maybe a small bet on Gamburyan if I feel like it

Im interested to see what kind of results your math based approach yields. GL man!

(Still sticking with my "bet it all on Machida" strategy lol)

Gomez is almost even money now. I think I might throw a few bucks on him.

Yeah i'm considering it too

so far I have

1 unit on gomez (may add more)

about 5u on lauzon

1.5ish on gamburyan

1u on de fries

a partial unit parlay on davis+machida+gam+de fries+swick

0.1u sweat bet on yahya

If i'm doing well by the co-main might invest a bit on Machida or Machida by TKO or Decision depending what the prop odds are, and potentially something on the main depending how i'm feeling

would have def bet machida by now but the 201 is bothering me and when he's such a huge fav I need to be pretty sure to pull the trigger. i'm def thinking about machida by tko though as +200ish dog given the title shot stipulation of whoever finishes most impressively

Gomez,defries,davis, machida, Rua parlay. at plus 350

i like it. might tail this for a partial actually

edit: tailed it minus davis at +310ish then plus davis and lauzon at +1060ish

Damn I threw a last minute unit on Gomez since he was down to -120. Whoops.

dumb to bet against that much money coming in on a guy. oh well. added a unit and a bit on de fries.

Gonna bet small on Omigawa here since the odds have gotten pretty favorable and I think this will be close.

10-9 Omigawa off to a nice start here.

I fully expect at least one judge to give it Gamburyan for missing wild punches though.

gotta like what you've seen so far

All square now.

Quite frustrating to watch, as Omigawa is clearly the superior puncher. If he just turns up the aggression on the feet, he will win for sure but he won't pull the trigger. Still feel good about the bet +170.

wow I was way wrong on this one. Omigawa was a lot faster than I thought. And really freaking tough

Pretty sure Manny takes it, but -170 was a steep price.

29-28 Gamburyan. Omigawa should have won though, he cost himself the fight with poor fight IQ. Not pressing his punching advantage and then inexplicably not fighting for underhooks against Gamburyan's weak single leg attempts.

not sure whether thats 30-27 or 29-28 Gamburyan, i'd lean 29-28 but it could be 30-27 too depending how r1 went

i'm expecting to see 30-27 29-28 29-28 or something from the judges

back to even for the card anyway, time for de fries to put me in the black

boom, called it

Why do Japanese fighters never seem to fight smart? I'm looking at you Omigawa and Hioki sigh.

Add Okami to that equation.

.

lol? He landed one good punch then got smoked.

These are def the 2 worst heavyweights in ufc fighting.