Decided to fire my first bet of that card

1.24u Cruz +135

Pretty sure i'm going to either play Browne ITD or SUB but waiting for props etc since I don't think Browne wins by decision often so not going to take the ML, I actually lean Mitrione if it goes the distance

No bets on the new years card yet, Brandao ITD +402 or wins in r1 +750 both look decent though

I like Cruz as a dog. The long lasting effects... or no effects are the x factor. A healthy Cruz would be a -180 favourite so I think I'll fire a unit on him as a dog.

I like Condit via decision in a hard fought fight. Strategically Condit should try to fight Lawlor like he did Diaz. Rory did well in r1 keeping Lawlor at distance but couldn't keep him at bay as the rounds went on.

Condit should be trying to conserve energy and win the early rounds with both fighters taking the least amount of damage. In the end I expect Lawlor to pick up the pace and force a war... but by then Condit should be up 2 rounds. The last 3 rounds are going to be the best.

Merry Christmas to all of you and lets hope the bets go our way in the New Year.

one of things you guys have forgotten about Condit is he is just that, he can take a fighter that is a nuclear bomb and conduct that fighter, lead, parry, control, adapt, preasure, allow, punsh, move.


Condit is impressive man, I am no way saying that lawleris not impressive guy is a true beast of all time but its difficult when you are in with a guy who is purpose built to handle "hard guys".

Guy is a kitchen utensil for cutting up meat ffs.


getting 11/10 or +120 on carlos?

how in the world do we not ship 200 or 300 dollars on him?


If Lawler comes out and out works, takes the damage from carlos, and championships it out over carlos for 5 soild rounds then hell, sure take my $300 but I am betting Carlos Conduit every day of the week since I am a long time MMA fan and I am meant to know know wtf I am talking about.

Lawler Conduit is a fight I see as playing out as a true champion having to have over to the real champion.


Lot of blood is going to get spilt but make no mistake Conduit is the real deal, guy is legit no1 imo.

edit: Placed bet.

Anyone else think it's really weird that Poirier vs Duffy is on fight pass for 195? I get it was a late addition to the card but still it's arguably co-main material and at least main card. I guess they really want people to buy fight pass

Trying to talk myself out of a Brandao bet but I think I might fire on him

Going to keep it small this card though as I really don't like many spots.

Maybe Kish minus 3.5 points? She's been out forever but she's supposed to win easily right given their respective resumes and it'll be at evens or so i'd assume

Anyone have thoughts on Garcia/Westcott?

Seems like all the early money is on Condit, bit coming on Poirier too now

Anderson vs Bisping announced for the Feb UK fight night card

Mousasi vs TBD co main

Fight makes sense at this point in both guys careers I think, looking forward to it even though Anderson is past his prime and probably coming off steroids. I never thought i'd be cheering against Anderson but i'm hoping Bisping can pull off the upset, felt pretty let down when Anderson turned out to be juicing

0.15u Brandao wins in r1 +700

Couldn't resist

The conspiracy theory is they're being punished for pulling out of / not accepting a late replacement for their main event fight in October.

I think the official line is the UFC feels like they "owe" the fight to Fight Pass subscribers.

I could believe both versions

I think its fine given it was originally scheduled for a Fight Pass card just odd decision making compared to what the UFC normally does

seeing +110 on the under 4.5rd, both of these guys are too lethal surely for this fight to go the full 5rd?






Edit:

Added a little more on the win by KO,
If the fight goes past the 3rd, its Carlos that will be sharper in there with huge selection of tools like a swiss army knife and cardo through the roof, knowing his knee got repaired to be twice as strong is nice, he is fresh and looks to be in fine shape, Lawler is superman but conduit is that Kryptonite


Win
Single: Carlos Condit by KO @ 5/1 (+500....)
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential returns: £240.00

Total stake: £40.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £40.00

gl - condit steaming pretty hard and i see how its a good MU for him but fading lawler is so scary especially if he mixes in takedowns so no play yet either way for me

I kinda want to play the under too but both guys are so tough... it's just a hard one to call

If the price is at all reasonable for FOTN for the main event i think it's worth a shot though it would be hard for this fight to suck

watch this, 4mins long.

If Rory MacDonald had a little more pop and could finish.. good to remember that Lawler got in all kinds of problems vs MacDonald.

Would not get off the hook like this with conduit...and I have conduit as if not more advanced technically than Rory and Rory is know as being one of the pure breed marital artists.

New Khabib inteview he says he wants to return in March and face whoever isnt fighting for the title out of Ferguson and the Pettis/Alvarez winner in a #1 contender fight then fight for the 155 title at UFC 200

Its a shame the UFC doesnt want to book more than 2 title fights to a card, they have enough divisions to do a 5 title fight card for UFC 200 and still have title fights to headline 198/199/201/202 which is basically the only way they can top UFC 100's buyrate.

Trying to figure out where all of the title fights go pre- UFC 200 assuming no injuries

UFC 196 is Cain vs Werdum 2

UFC 197 is in Brazil; thought it would be Anderson/Belfort 2 but that's headlining the UK card, too soon for Aldo to come back. Too soon for title fights at BW or MW or WW, WSW will headline the TUF finale probably, WBW will be at 200, HW and LHW are out too. RDA vs Ferguson could work if Ferguson's cleared medically in time given RDA took no damage in his last fight. I guess it had to be RDA vs Ferguson if they want a Brazilian in a title fight. I guess they could do Conor vs RDA for the LW title and still give Conor time to recover for UFC 200 but its risky.

UFC 198 in MSG will be Jones vs Cormier 2. Maybe MM vs Cejudo co-main?

UFC 199 in May could do either Cruz/Faber or Dillashaw/Faber as a headliner potentially, timeline would work, or Rockhold/Romero or both for a double headliner.

UFC 200 will be Conor vs someone, Rousey vs Holm 2 probably. They really could fit in a HW and WW defense as well timing wise or even the BW title fight/grudge match instead of 199.

I assume they won't do it but for max buys, McGregor v Edgar, Rousey vs Holm 2, Dillashaw or Cruz vs Faber, Werdum or Cain vs Overeem or Arlovski, Condit or Lawler vs Hendricks or Wonderboy would be an epic all title fight main card and would actually work timing wise without ruining all of the surrounding cards - they also have Anderson vs whoever, a GSP return, a CM Punk debut and Hendo/Bisping 2 as possibilities for the main card assuming it's only a 2 title fight main card.

5 title fight card would be pretty sick. Would they have enough PPV time if they all went the distance?

Doesn't look like were getting many lines for Rizin only Fedor fight. Wanted to bet on aoki to beat Sakuraba if he was anything less then -300.

Everyone seems pretty high on Tumenov to beat Larkin on most forums but at the current prices I am starting to like the price on Larkin in what should be mainly a striking contest any opinions?

The line for Fedor/Singh at Rizin NYE barely budged. Need +1000 on Singh to risk anything. Let's see if we get a realistic Aoki line over Sakuraba. Other than the fun factor of the freak show fights, the cruiserweight eight-man tournament looks pretty good but I kind of doubt we'll get lines for even the quarter-final fights.

Rizin odds only on Sportsbook.ag for some reason. What do you guys think?

Kazushi Sakuraba +500
Shinya Aoki -900

Hideo Tokoro -525
Kizaemon Saiga +350

Goran Reljic -125
Vadim Nemkov -115

Brett McDermott +460
Muhammed Lawal -800

Felipe Efrain +210
Yuki Motoya -300

James Thompson -280
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka +195

Jiri Prochazka +375
Satoshi Ishii -600

Valentin Moldavsky -420
Yuta Uchida +280

Daiki Hata +175
Hiroyuki Takaya -245

Bruno Cappelozza -260
Teodoras Aukstuolis +180

5Dimes odds too on most of the bouts for Rizin Day 1 are out. Slightly different prices.

Anyone know when Rizin day 1 starts/where to watch it? Thought it was on Spike but I don't see anything until New Years Eve

Neither card is being broadcast in its entirety in the U.S.. Only in Japan & Russia. So you can wait for tape delay of some of the big fights on Spike in two days NYE morning or try to do like me and watch this live on a Russian channel Match TV stream at 1 am EST tonight.

watching tape on Dustin Poirie and Joseph Duffy.

the way I see this is that Duffy is a brick shi#e house with double black / purple belts, a pro level boxer never beaten, physically the guy is SOILD, fluid technique, Dustin has good striking when he is in vs guys that fold up, were is Poiries advantages over Duffy, attacking Duffys lead leg?


Duffy is going to fold Poirie up, he is going to have a considerable advantage over him in strength, Duffys core is some thing unbelievable, his striking is very good, I am convinced about the guy, forget about the fact he beat Conor, leave that alone, he is very talented and Poirie is going to have to deeply respect every inch and every part of Duffys game no mistake about that,

Duffy is no backwards irish guy being fed to the lion, its the other way round, guy is respected and decorated, stands on the feet extremely well and also what I like about the guy is his fight progression, he is an intelligent fighter, Poirie is nothing special, duffy is a truck with a 100 ton load on board, its easy to over look it but he is a very strong guy indeed.

horrible odds but no way I can sleep with my self if I don't pull the trigger on a bet on duffy here, to me the writing is on the wall.

Poirie is no way going to have a striking advantage over Duffy, in close or up against the cage or on the ground he is in with the wrong guy here.

Once last thing as well, Duffy can throw wicked leg kicks, guy is talented and backed it up with "living in the gym/ fighting" 25 hours, 8 days a week.

Poirie has his hands full here no question about that he is going to get owned imo.





Win
Single: Joseph Duffy @ 8/15
1 line at £200.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £200.00
Potential returns: £306.67



Total stake: £200.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £200.00

Rizin Fighting Federation 1: Day 1 Risk $512.50

Jiri Prochazka (+240) vs Satoshi Ishii $50.00 for $120.00
Goran Reljic (+120) vs Vadim Nemkov $50.00 for $60.00
Yuta Uchida (+275) vs Valentin Moldavsky $50.00 for $137.50
Hiroyuki Takaya (-145) vs Daiki Hata $72.50 for $50.00

Parlays:
Muhammed Lawal (-900) vs Brett McDermott + Shinya Aoki (-1035) vs Kazushi Sakuraba $230.00 for $50.25
Muhammed Lawal (-900) vs Brett McDermott + Bruno Cappelozza (-190) vs Teodoras Aukstuolis + Shinya Aoki (-1035) vs Kazushi Sakuraba $60.00 for $51.59

wasn't going to bet but ended up betting $750 on TK so a good end to my betting year there also betting light on Sakuraba as Aoki is banged up and Saku's work with NJPW has him in really good shape

I wish 5D or BM had offered lines on TK vs Thompson. I would have bet TK after The Colossus came in heavy off an injury after hardly training.

Honestly the injury just guaranteed it I thought TK was winning at even strength as Thompson A. isn't that much younger and B.Is absolutely awful like Leo Kuntz awful