My betting summary and results for 2015: $13,123.55 Profit

UFC: $12,760.26
Bellator: -$479.90
WSOF: $816.64
Invicta: $525.43
Other MMA: -$782.19
Glory Kickboxing: $86.02
Boxing: $174.79
Misc.: $22.50

I made money on 28 out of 41 UFC events; 8 out of 16 Bellator cards; 8 out of 10 WSOF cards; 4 out of 4 Invicta cards; 11 out of 25 other MMA events; 3 out of 4 bettable Glory kickboxing cards; 9 out of 21 boxing cards and 1 out of 1 beauty pageant.

My biggest winning cards:
1- UFC 190 Rousey vs Correia: $1,789.60
2- UFC 194 Aldo vs McGregor $1,588.50
3- UFN 80 Nanajunas vs VanZant $1,550.10
4- UFN 79 Henderson vs Masvidal $1,455.75
5- UFC 186 Rockhold vs Machida $1,438.40

My biggest losing cards:
1- UFN 77 Belfort vs Henderson III -$998.90
2- UFN 63 Mendes vs Lamas -$572.50
3- Titan FC 35 Healy vs Hawn -$541.50
4- UFN 60 Henderson vs Thatch -$521.36
5- UFC 193 Rousey vs Holm -$442.50


Some notable bets from 2015:

My biggest single winning underdog bet due to some crazy pre-fight line movement:
Tae Hyun Bang (+420) vs Leo Kuntz $200.00 for $840.00

My highest odds winning underdog moneyline bet (boxing):
Adrian Granados (+900) vs Amir Imam $25.00 for $225.00

My biggest single wining favorite moneyline bet:
Mark Hunt (-275) vs Antonio Silva $1100.00 for $400.00

My biggest winning live bet:
Yoel Romero (+511) vs Ronaldo Souza $100.00 for $511.00

My highest odds prop bet win:
UFN 80 Namajunas vs Van Zant Fights to go distance under 2½ (+4550) $10.00 for $455.00

My biggest parlay bet win. I don't usually do these long parlays but tailed someone else on a lark and got lucky:
Sirwan Kakai/Frankie Saenz Over 2½ (-260) + Dustin Ortiz (-400) + Tom Watson/Chris Camozzi Over 2½ (-255) + Uriah Hall (-370) + Ray Borg (-490) + Derek Brunson (-465) + Beneil Dariush (+135) + Glover Teixeira (+100) $50.00 for $1002.31

Lifetime gambling profit since 11/30/13 is now $11,421.90

Summary- Going forward in 2016 I intend to keep doing more of the same, hopefully with similar results. The UFC clearly accounts for most of my action and profit, although all other combat sports action combined added a little to the bottom line even though Bellator and other MMA were net losses individually. I had gradually increased my bet sizes and risked more on UFC cards over the course of the year 2015 and will likely do so incrementally in 2016, picking spots where I see value and putting say, 2 or 3 units on dogs or close favorites that I like instead of my usual 1 or 2 units. Usual total risk for me on UFC cards is now 20-30 one hundred dollar standard units for the bigger cards. I may experiment with making some bigger prop plays as well in key spots if they have good odds, like say 1+ units on decision or ITD props versus .4 or .5 unit risks. I'll probably also go a little bigger in live betting.

Great year's summary Jim, will be tailing you a lot over next year when I can get a similar price

So far for 195 I have

0.7u Brandao +175
0.28u Brandao +3.5 points +135
0.14u Brandao wins in r1 +700

Interestingly Brandao dec is being steamed and itd is getting longer. Thought it would be the other way a lot.

I actually like the +3.5 points line more than straight up and wish i'd made my full 'to win' play on that line but it's back to +125 now and i'd already hit the ML. At least it acts as a nice hedge if he wins r1 and gasses to lose a 29-28 which actually isn't that unlikely given his history, I def should have taken +135 instead of +175 to hedge against that outcome

Considering Kish -3.5 points, haven't fired it yet. Miocic decision is tempting too but kinda want a better price.

Definitely liking Bader +380 vs Rumble but will wait probably because everyone loves betting on Rumble regardless of the price, might get +400 even

I was going to ask since the term having more eye balls looking at some thing is never a bad thing, does any one see any improvements possible in jims approach?

I am thinking about the very slight imptovement granted to us when we get to see the weigh in before pulling the trigger on a bet, especially if it's for more than 1 unit? Some times you just get some thing out of watching the weigh ins


Jim which bet in 2016 was you most certain of the result?
For me it was that Carlos conduit vs Thiago inside the distance at +200 that was obviously not going the distance, that should have been a 4 to 5 unit play for all.

Great stuff JimGunn inspired me to work harder on my mma betting seeing how consistent your results have been.

So far got Condit +120 but only bet this as saw the line movement and took it on a slow book so will probably arb this or reverse my position and get Lawler and + odds.

Got Noke at -275 was impressed with the improvements in his last fight and training at Jacksons seems can only see him making improvements. Watched tape on his opponent and he seems real raw with pretty basic striking but some power, on two weeks notice I don't see him winning this fight very often at all.

I think Tumenov is going to put Larkin to sleep after watching tape. Larkin gets too wild and exposes himself when he misses his punches or get backed up against the cage. I prefer the inside the distance prop at -175 to Tumenov straight at -260 as with their fighting styles I don't see this going the distance unless either one radically alters their usual approach.

- First fight of the year, its for the tittle I am aware about how important this is.
- I'm all in on this fight.
- I'm willing to do what ever it takes.
- Most likely my last effort at the tittle "my last run at this", I am all in, all or nothing.

There are many bettors that would say that betting on every fight on a card like I usually do and having two or three dozen or more total bets on a card is idiotic. Some bettors and especially touts think the smart way to bet is to find the one or two or maybe three fights out of a dozen that they think have value and that they really believe in and only bet those straight up. I can't argue with that more conservative style if it works for them. But I personally like my volume betting strategy with a wide mix or moneylines, point spreads, over/unders and props plus whole card props and live betting when possible. I mean, not only has it been working for me, but it's a hell of a lot more fun.

As far as waiting for the weigh-ins to see how the fighters look, it makes logical sense for sure as the shape fighters are in or their demeanor can often influence one's opinion of whether to bet for or against them. But I personally don't think it's a wise policy to do it strictly. The reason is that if you wait for the weigh-ins every time and you're good at guessing line movement on moneylines and props, you'll miss the really good lines when they first get released. Especially with props like ITD, decision or KO or submission props. They can often be very lucrative with high + numbers that quickly get bet down within minutes. So watching the weigh-ins is important, but I would never wait to make all my bets then. I usually keep Best Fight Odds open on a monitor in my office auto-refreshing every five minutes to try to get a jump on line releases.

I think my most confident bet of 2015 was Luke Rockhold over Lyoto Machida. I made a pretty substantial bet on Luke at -160 for $640 to win $400.

maa junk picks.
http://mmajunkie.com/2016/01/ufc-195-staff-picks

one thing these idiots forgot to mention is...

Conduit went the distance with a prime GSP, the greatest MMA fighter of all time, is lawler the greatest MMA fighter of all time?, not when he got touched with the side of rorys leg and nearly finished... and his face looked like a roman coliseum sacrifice.


you have to remember man that conduit has never been ****ed with up top on the feet striking, any one can reference a time he got clocked dominated had questions raised on his ability to adapt, adjust, his chin?


What good is it going to be to be as good as lawler if it takes 8 punches to land one, or 5, this is a long fight man its 5rds and as much as lawler can go and has huge cardio don't tell me for one min he can keep the pace of conduit.

Lawler is a throw back 1940's. 1950's cut off the block of rocky marcio, gong ho, sure its impressive but there is a transaction and that's the migreation of the belt, conduit is a MUCH finer example of mix martial arts, he deserves to be no1 imo.

Lawler is a scary dude no question but conduit is truly an under the radar (even now) guy.

If conduit cant beat Lawler then GSP better stop all his training, his bouncing up and down like a toad on acid drinking his NOS and go live in the hills because no one can beat lawler and until he ages a bunch ever one else is canon fodder.

I have lawler beating conduit 3,2 times out of 10, conduit is a true example of the kind of sht Rory tried to aspire to be.


back to
maa junk picks.
http://mmajunkie.com/2016/01/ufc-195-staff-picks



heavy leaning towards Trujillo @ +120... (I like this pick..... and its +120)

heavy leaning towards Brian Ortega -200

-
-
-
-
-
Edit: 2016, new years day I am allowed to post an all time classic fight of the year for fellow MMA followers. have a look at this! Watch all the way through!


Cyborg vs Manhoef
enjoy!

Cowboy moving up to 170 and fighting Tim Means next month what a sicko.

It's Tim Means so he should win. Means is a good fighter but he's still mid level in the UFC and Cowboy is still top 10 even if he has flaws

Had a dream Condit won by R5 Tko last night. Not the best reason for a bet but might put like 0.1u on the r5 prop for fun because it'd be a solid story if I hit

Took Holtzman -159 for just under a unit, no capping involved just caught an Aussie book napping on the line move so ill either let it ride or switch sides for a better price after doing a bit more analysis

I'm a huge cerrone mark but means excels at the things that exploits cerrone's weaknesses

I can't pick Cerrone fights for the life of me, I think ive picked maybe 3 of his last 11 fights correctly, he's easily the fighter I have the worst ROI betting on/against lifetime over a 10+ fight sample if I had to guess.

Think the best ROI might be Werdum, i'm pretty sure i've bet on him in each of his last 8 fights and he's gone 7-1 including multiple wins as a dog (Cain, Fedor, Browne) and his one loss to Reem was a close fight as a dog

I do enjoy your bizarre writing style and over hyping of your bets Balla Shusher took Condit at +120 but its a close fight.

My bets are
Noke -275, 2.75 to win 1 unit
Tumenov vs larkin inside at -185, 1.85 to win 1 unit
Condit +120, 1 unit to win 1.2 units

I'm going to be all over Tim Means in that fight. Cerrone doesn't have a good chin/liver shots and Means hits hard and is much bigger. I expect the odds to be heavily on Cerrone's side but I expect Means to win via TKO in Rd1.

Sect7G if u want any bets on 195 any chance u can PM them to me in next half hour or so, going to bed soonish and probably wont wake up until card is well underway

No way i'm touching Means/Cerrone, I can't pick a Cerrone fight for the life of me and who knows how he'll look at 170 or where he is mentally after being crushed by RDA for the title

Might bet during the card might not but thatll do me until I wake up at least, only on Brandao so far plus Brandao r1/plus points and then very small on Holtzman only because I caught it pre line move.

I guess Brandao is my bet of the card, feel like it's a pick'em fight and got him at solid dog odds so that'll do.

Can cheer for Condit and Arlovski now without worrying about bias talking myself into bets on them.

GL everyone!

Ended up hedging my Condit bet not sold either way and keep changing my opinion on the fight. Will make like 0.05 of a unit and just enjoy the fight

Every time I put money on Cerrone, i get a big kick in the face. He's fallen short for me on multiple occasions. Ill cut my losses.


Giving the edge to Condit tonight. I put a unit on Lawler taking it though. I'm a huge fan and extremely biased. I've bet on Lawler in his last 5 fights. Can't go against him now, or maybe that would be the wise thing to do..

Condit presents a different challenge similar to Rory. He should come into this fight anticipating a war against Robbie - its just what he does. Comes at you and wants to exchange. This makes him really susceptible in getting tagged. We saw it in the Rory fight and pretty much all his other fights. He's willing to put his chin on the line to land combos. Nick Diaz KO'd him a few years ago. Sure he's probably evolved, but his bread and butter is still to land big shots leaving him vunerable to well timed counters.

Condits more versatile with the striking and could potentially exploit Lawler. Should be a good fight, I'll be rooting for ruthless. Wouldn't be surprised if Condit lands a head kick.

UFC 195 Risk $3408.50

Robbie Lawler (-135) vs Carlos Condit $270.00 for $200.00
Robbie Lawler +5½ points (-175) $175.00 for $100.00
Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit starts round 4 (-161) $161.00 for $100.00
Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit Over 4½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Robbie Lawler wins by 5 round decision (+201) $50.00 for $100.50
Robbie Lawler wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+831) $15.00 for $124.65

Andrei Arlovski (+200) vs Stipe Miocic $100.00 for $200.00
Andrei Arlovski wins by TKO/KO (+505) $20.00 for $101.00

Albert Tumenov (-195) vs Lorenz Larkin $195.00 for $100.00
Albert Tumenov/Lorenz Larkin Over 1½ (-148) $148.00 for $100.00
Albert Tumenov wins by TKO/KO (+120) $50.00 for $60.00
Lorenz Larkin wins by 3 round decision (+440) $25.00 for $110.00

Brian Ortega/Diego Brandao won’t go 3 round distance (-170) $170.00 for $100.00
Brian Ortega wins inside distance (+115) $200.00 for $230.00
Diego Brandao wins in round 1 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00

Tony Sims (+115) vs Abel Trujillo $100.00 for $115.00
Tony Sims wins inside distance (+248) $30.00 for $74.40

Masanori Kanehara (+400) vs Michael McDonald $50.00 for $200.00
Masanori Kanehara wins by 3 round decision (+600) $40.00 for $240.00
Kyle Noke/Alex Morono Under 2½ (+158) $100.00 for $158.00
Kyle Noke wins inside distance (+225) $50.00 for $112.50
Justine Kish/Nina Ansaroff goes 3 round distance (-195) $97.50 for $50.00
Nina Ansaroff (+230) vs Justine Kish $50.00 for $115.00
Nina Ansaroff wins by submission (+1170) $10.00 fo r$117.00
Drew Dober (+140) vs Scott Holtzman $100.00 for $140.00
Drew Dober wins by 3 round decision (+245) $40.00 for $98.00

Joseph Duffy/Dustin Poirier won’t start round 3 (-157) $100.00 for $63.69
Joseph Duffy wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25
Joe Soto (+115) vs Michinori Tanaka $40.00 for $46.00
Joe Soto/Michinori Tanaka Over 2½ (-180) $72.00 for $40.00
Sheldon Wescott (-145) vs Edgar Garcia $145.00 for $100.00
Sheldon Westcott wins by submission (+205) $25.00 for $51.25
Sheldon Westcott wins in round 1 (+325) $35.00 for $113.75

Fights to go distance under 5½ (+155) $40.00 for $62.00
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+386) $25.00 for $96.50
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+1070) $15.00 for $160.50
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+3325) $10.00 for $332.50
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+18000) $5.00 for $900.00

Not exactly six fights go distance (-375) $375.00 for $100.00

Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit FOTN award winner (+200) $25.00 for $50.00
Kyle Noke wins Fastest KO (+2700) $10.00 for $270.00
Sheldon Westcott wins Fastest SUB (+435) $10.00 for $43.50

Parlay:
Kish/Ansaroff goes 3 round distance (-205) + Kyle Noke wins inside distance (+225) + Michael McDonald wins inside distance (-145) + Sims/Trujillo won’t go 3 round distance (-215) + Ortega/Brandao won’t go 3 round distance (-200) $50.00 for $847.76

Sheldon Westcott starts things off right with a round 1 finish!

duffy let that fight get away from him man, he had his man in trouble but never capitalized, you rock some one you have to end them

Cleaned up on Dober and Dober decision there plus a live bet on Dober after round 1.

Dober super strong dude,

Semi-hedged my under 2½ and Noke ITD with live bet on:

Alex Morono (+400) vs Kyle Noke $25.00 for $100.00

lol are we sure they didn't read the wrong name? How on earth do they score that for Morono? Noke clearly won the first two rounds