Quote:
Originally Posted by IDntBet4Fun
Why Im betting Dern:
Nina was talking about retirement after her last fight with Tatiana.
Dern has had more time to prepare than Nina.
Nina just had a baby 9/2020
Dern has a world class striking coach on her side: Jason Parillo whose notable students include Cris Cyborg, Michael Bisping, Rafael Dos Anjos, Marlon Vera and she also brought in a strength training coach from Brazil.
Dern has improved in striking, beat an opp with a similar record to Nina (Hannah Cifer 10w-7L) 5-ko's under Hannahs belt btw they fought (may 2020)
Nina isn't a good wrestler, lost to Tatiana(June 2019), Tatiana has a similar style to Dern. 8W-0L. Dern is a great wrestler and she's been improving her striking.
I would bet Nina if she wasnt coming off a pregnancy and a 21month lay off.
I think Dern is +ev in this fight. Sure Amanda Nunez is Ninas gf/sparring partner but a pregnancy is a big hurdle to overcome plus add a weak takedown defense and I think its just enough take Dern side.
I agree with your breakdown.
I think Ansaroff might be coming back to MMA so early after the baby because out of the couple she is the one that took a few years off due to pregnancy. At 35 she might feel like she either gets a win now and maybe a title shot down the line or she calls it a career.
She doesn't have good TDD and Dern can take a mean punch. I think this plays a lot like Ansaroff's last fight where Ansaroff loses the first 2 rounds and wins the 3rd.
This is a very good spot imo, I just put 2u at +130 on bet3 65 , crazy odds.
Was expecting this to be the other way.
I also got early on Hall (-115) vs Weidman, Weidman is gonna fold after a solid jab, his chin is completely gone and unless Hall gets one of his usual brain farts where he respects too much his opponent he should retire Weidman in the 1st. 1u on Hall at this line.