I think Ngannou wins by using the Rozenstruik gameplan of 'come in swinging and be willing to take a shot to give one'

Market does like Stipe early he's come in a lot but I think Ngannou connects in r1 and puts him out this time too

Obviously Stipe can win via same gameplan he had last time, but if I had to pick a side at evens i'm taking Ngannou. He's better than last time they fought and Stipe is a few years older. Ngannou is in his prime now in his early 30s, Stipe is 38. Being 38 isn't a disaster at HW like at the lower weight classes, but it is getting up there, we're not going to be seeing Stipe get better from here on out and Ngannou is probably the scariest striker in HW history. I think he finds Stipe's chin this time and we're yet to meet the fighter who can take Ngannou's best shot

I like Ngannou as well but that would be a terrible game plan. It was fine in that fight because Rozenstruik is completely one dimensional and posed no risk of taking Ngannou down.

I'd like to see Ngannou pace himself. Even in doing so he's likely to KO Miocic early. I'm sure Ngannou's cardio is far from great but he's had 3 years to improve it (and other facets of his game like takedown defense).

Trying to decide between unders, Ngannou and Ngannou r1 as main bet

So far I have a little Ngannou wins in r1 +260, if he wins I think it's in r1 over half the time and often in the first exchange - his last 8 wins are in the first and Stipe is hittable and Ngannou's power will be at its most severe early.

I don't mind Stipe dec, if he wins I think it's by dec a lot as Ngannou is so tough, but I think Ngannou knocks him out in the first so going to be heavily weighted to that whatever set of bets I wind up on

I'm going with Stipe again tonight... every time we doubt him, he pulls it out

also like Luque and o1.5 in the Frances/Stipe fight

parlayed Luque + o2.5 Maverick/Robertson

also like o2.5 Luque/Woodley

good luck folks!

Good luck everyone tonight ! Post your bets and let's make that maney$$$

gooden almeida luque trixie

On Luque at -220 2.2u to win 1u good luck all $$$

I thought Buchachas won that easily, this dude just got punched on the face the entire time.

Crazy how some judges value so much going forward even if it means eating clean punches for 3 rounds.

Was live betting Buchachas all the way through as high as +350 and lost sigh.
Very close fight could have gone either way and an obvious split decision.
Managed some back on Benefield winning via sub at +1050... no idea why I made that bet but saw it on a highlight video 2 min before the fight and had a feeling.

Woodley is either going to win or he's done and if he doesn't win he was done already and he got this fight out of respect.

Going to take Miocic in rd3,4,5 I think. And will take Woodley rd1 at +1000 as he must know he needs a huge statement... but he's the most laziest MMA fighter of all time so hard to believe he has it in him. Will take Luque in Rd3 as Woodley might quit if he's down 2 rounds and doesn't want to take another beating.

SIA is offering Almeida at +310 , betting 0.3u , was ready to bet him at +285 this is even better. He was a few paths to victory, I hope he kicks O'Malley's legs.

adding 1u Luque at -210

O'Malley thought he had the walkoff oh no no no

Pity to miss the Ngannou r1 prop but had him straight up too for a small overall profit as only decent bet of the card. As a fan super happy Ngannou is champ and that Mullarkey got a UFC win

That was a pretty good card, ended up +1.2ish units thanks to addind some on Luque at -210.

Almeida was totally outclassed in retrospect. He is probably getting cut after that, Woodley is done too at UFC I think now is a free agent.

Any thoughts on Bellator 255 card? some recognizable fighters are there, Patricio Freire, Roger Huerta, Mitrione lol any insight would be helpful.

Sugar Show should be a massive favorite against anyone outside like the top 5. Dude's the closest thing to McGregor in the striking department and is so far ahead of the rest of the division there. He does seem frail and is clearly susceptible to leg kicks but still I'd have a hard time betting against him when he's facing guys not even in the top 10.

Mitrione pulled out of his fight. Other than that I have no clue other than sadly conventional wisdom says to always bet against Roger Huerta. At one point he was 20-1-1 (1 NC). His record is now 24-12-1 (1 NC). 4-11 in his last 15.

Leon vs Nate May at UFC 262. First 5 round co-main in history (I believe).....

No way I'm not loading up on Leon......he has to open up as a massive favorite.

Yeah Diaz is not going to win unless Leon has a complete mental meltdown

I'm expecting to see Leon as a -300 or worse open (and still smashing it)

Volk and Ortega coaching TUF now, I like it gives Volk time to properly recover from Covid hopefully

Any thoughts on the following two fights:

Dern vs ansaroff- thinking about playing dern. She’s a slight dog, think she can win and is kinda up and coming. Find it odds she’s dog vs some 10-6 chick but probably bc she hasn’t fought anyone super tough yet really except ribas who lost her last fight.

Holland v vettori- thinking about playing a little Holland as a dog. Think he needs to kinda prove a lot after his sigh last fight. Think he probably loses but I feel he can improve after last fight and the guy is always dangerous if he’s just smart. I felt he got a little unlucky in last fight against a solid wrestler. Kinda fee 2 losses this quick would be really bad for Holland. Think if he just comes to fight and doesn’t make mistakes- could win but most likely
Not. May play him for a small bet for a sweat

Why im betting Vettori ML and the under 4.5

Vettori Training Team
Vettori is sparring with Sean "Tarzan" Strickland ,one of the best strikers in the game rn (22-W 3-L)
Never been k.o'd /finished/submitted in his career.
Stood toe to toe all 3 rounds with Adesanya ,even though he got outstriked he still got more takedowns than Adesanya his 2/6 vs Adesanya 0/1.
Bjj coach Romulo 11 gold World Jiu Jitsu championships ,8 silver (2006-2016).
His striking coach is Rafael Cordeiro whose notable students include (Anderson Silva, Wanderlei Silva, Fabricio Werdum, Murilo Rua, Kelvin Gastelum) All good strikers and even better wrestlers.

Betting the Under at 4.5
Most of Vettoris wins have come under 4 rounds 11/1st round 4-3rd round.
His losses: 3 in the 3rd and 3 in the 2nd.

Why Im not picking Holland
1.Takedown defense is weak 51%
2.Just came out of a fight 2 weeks ago.
3.Darek Brunson outwrestled him and even tho he outstriked Derek he still lost. Derek took him down 6/12 times vs his 1/1.
4.Of the 12 guys he k.o'd 8 had unimpressive records, 2 are active( , 1 fought in 2020 and the other in 2019.
5.Got outwrestled by Thiago (Of the 21 wins , Thiago has only won once by submission aka hes not a submission master yet he still submitted him.)
6.Holland has lost to good strikers (3) and good wrestlers (3). 4 of those 6 fighters are still active.
7.2 of his 6 losses have been by submission.
8.His coach is Travis Lutter/ Even though Travis Lutter is from the Gracie school under Carlos Machado his wrestling skills are unimpressive, he also couldn't execute takedowns right on Adesanya or Derek Brunson and Adesanya isn’t even known for his wrestling.

trying to figure out who here is ashamed of associating mma with their main?

The last point I made (8.) I made a mistake, Holland didn't wrestle Adesanya but my point was that he's not a good wrestler despite being taught by Travis Lutter(a guy that learned from Carlos Machado/ the Gracie School).

Most BJJ guys have relatively poor takedowns.