What?

brand new account comes to a thread that has nothing to do with poker in a poker forum with no google search presence is someone's alt account 9/10 times

I wasnt going to reply to your snarky comment at first but people like you are one of the biggest detterents why I dont care to post on here or other poker forums. This isn't my alt account. Ive known about 2+2 for ages but never cared about posting because its riddled with snarky posters like you. I rather pay upswing and train by myself than ask for poker advice and read a smug reply like yours. I just felt like creating an account to talk mma on here since ive known for awhile that 2+2 has a sports betting thread. I did my research and wanted to see what others thought about it but according to your smug perspective, # of posts trumps logic/research and thats ok. I wouldn't really care what you thought about the match anyways now that you've shown what a real gentlemen you are. Keep racking up those posts buddy , i'm sure you can use them as currency somewhere.

He's just being sassy and derailing the thread from the actual topic.

Gee, we're sure gonna miss out if some thin-skinned total square takes his ball and goes home. Rick was perfectly reasonable in everything he said here, and he wasn't even snarky.

He'd still be posting under his main account though right?

SIA has Vettori at -250 , 2.5u to win 1u

The only way I see him losing is if Holland gets in his head but his chin should get him out of trouble and he should 100% abuse Holland's bad TDD to an absolute mauling.

I have read a lot o comments about Holland taking this fight because even if he loses his stock won't go down much seeing as he has not had time to develop the holes in his game. It is a good payday, he is being a company man and he would be losing to the next title contender anyways. It is obvious Holland is in the UFC for just a payday, the could have tried a hail mary vs Brunson but insteda clowned around till the end.

He is not here for belts, Vettori is, Vettori can beat him everywhere.

Need to watch more tape on Ansaroff, I was expecting Dern to move into the -130 but it is Ansaroff who has moved into the slight favorite as we speak.

i kinda like being known as sassy though, think it's time for my effeminate heel turn

Why Im betting Dern:
Nina was talking about retirement after her last fight with Tatiana.
Dern has had more time to prepare than Nina.
Nina just had a baby 9/2020
Dern has a world class striking coach on her side: Jason Parillo whose notable students include Cris Cyborg, Michael Bisping, Rafael Dos Anjos, Marlon Vera and she also brought in a strength training coach from Brazil.
Dern has improved in striking, beat an opp with a similar record to Nina (Hannah Cifer 10w-7L) 5-ko's under Hannahs belt btw they fought (may 2020)
Nina isn't a good wrestler, lost to Tatiana(June 2019), Tatiana has a similar style to Dern. 8W-0L. Dern is a great wrestler and she's been improving her striking.

I would bet Nina if she wasnt coming off a pregnancy and a 21month lay off.
I think Dern is +ev in this fight. Sure Amanda Nunez is Ninas gf/sparring partner but a pregnancy is a big hurdle to overcome plus add a weak takedown defense and I think its just enough take Dern side.

Kayy turn round.

I'm pretty sure every time you wrote wrestler, you actually meant grappler.

Also Big Boy. A couple weeks ago he had some of that Mackenzie Dern birthday cake.

Oh yeah I meant grappler. Yup, saw this on twitter.

new guy, in all seriousness if this isn't some level then welcome to the thread, it's nice to see a new face

but when a new account pops up like this 9/10 it's someone's alt account, it's actually pretty common, especially in the sports betting sub for people to have multiple accounts, especially when they are still workshopping their ideas as you clearly are and are worried it'll reflect poorly on their main account (as you see you've already been called a square so this is a genuine thing that happens here)

i didn't mean any harm by that and if you reread my posts on the matter you can pretty clearly see i wasn't being snarky

enjoy seeing your future posts, and if not then I probably interact enough with your main as is anyway

I agree with your breakdown.

I think Ansaroff might be coming back to MMA so early after the baby because out of the couple she is the one that took a few years off due to pregnancy. At 35 she might feel like she either gets a win now and maybe a title shot down the line or she calls it a career.

She doesn't have good TDD and Dern can take a mean punch. I think this plays a lot like Ansaroff's last fight where Ansaroff loses the first 2 rounds and wins the 3rd.

This is a very good spot imo, I just put 2u at +130 on bet3 65 , crazy odds.

Was expecting this to be the other way.

I also got early on Hall (-115) vs Weidman, Weidman is gonna fold after a solid jab, his chin is completely gone and unless Hall gets one of his usual brain farts where he respects too much his opponent he should retire Weidman in the 1st. 1u on Hall at this line.

Its cool, I understand where youre coming from now.

Yup ,I agree being 35 is pretty old for a straw weight and Mackenzie is 28 and is just getting into her prime.

Allen vs Yusuff UFC23 (Yussuf is a very good bet)
Why Im betting Yussuf ML and why I have a prop bet that Yussuf will knock out Allan.

1.Yussuf has the perfect set of skills to exploit Allen and most likely knock him out which makes this match a very good stylistic matchup for Yussuf.
2.Allens striking defense is very bad (go back and watch any of Allens fights, doesnt read opps well ,doesnt see shots coming ,doesnt move his head ,carries his left hand very low from the southpaw stance which makes him a sitting duck to a knock out vs the orthodox stance of Yussuf (his chin and left side of face is left exposed). Look at Allens fight vs Nick lentz whose primarily a grappler and Nick was able to land his power right hand over and over again.
3.Allen hasn’t faced any really strong striking opponent look at his past fights; Allen vs Gilbert Melendez (37, retired) Jordan Rinaldi -grappler ,Mads Burnel-grappler, Makwan Amirkani-grappler , Yautzin Meza-grappler.
4.Both guys primarily strikers but Yussuf outclasses him in this area.
5.Allen grapples a little bit but doesnt have a heavy top game ,and is weak off his back.
Yusseff very difficult to hold down.
6.Allan is a south paw , Yussuf has (orthodox stance) both guys are gonna be in the open striking stance which is a big dynamic advantage for Yussuf.
7.Allans left hand in his past fights has consistently been very low (his chin/left side of face is left exposed); its a significant weakness because Yussuf likes to come forward with alot of pressure but doesnt attack with pressure , hes a counter striker; he uses that pressure to be able to counter , comes forward , throws jab out , puts alot of pressure on you ,closes the distance so much that you feel compelled to come forward to alleviate that pressure then when you come forward to alleviate that pressure Yussuf looks to either slip the shot from behind the high boxing guard and then counters you.
8.Yussuf is very good at defense ,always reading and reacting to opp . Sometimes he gets caught for getting in reckless exchanges for being too aggressive.
9.The shots that hurt you /knock you out are the ones you dont see coming which is why I have a prop bet that Allen will eventually get k.o’d.
10.Speed and accuracy make Yussuf very dangerous.
11.When you take down Allen to the ground he struggles to pop back up to the ground ; look at Yussuf in the fight vs Andre Fili he wasnt allowing himself to get dominated on the ground, popped back up the whole fight thats why I like Yussuf as the winner and why I have a prop bet that he will knock out Allen.
12.You might say Allen has never been knocked out before look at his record(16w-1L) but imo its bc he hasn’t fought dangerous strikers like Yussuf.

is anyone else on every dog but holland

Call me crazy but I really think Holland is a nice play for a small amount at a price. I think he prolly gets schooled but I just feel he could win this fight bc hes going to lose a lot of steam if he loses. Kevin Holland is a solid fighter he lost to.... I think Kevin Holland got a little lucky in spots in the fight- 1st round takedown off accidental slip and all his tds worked. Sure hes the better fighter etc etc, but I felt he was hurt at points in fight where it could have went holland.

I like betting a small amount on Holland here for a sweat where if you lose, you dont give a ****. I'll throw $30-40 on it and if i lose, who really cares bc its a small amount.

I'm betting a little on under 4.5.

BTW dern fight was money printing. This is why I love ufc betting. I feel some lines arent really square. A chick that hasn't fought for a year an a half, had a kid, and is kinda a journeywoman with a close to .500 record is expected to beat someone that has been active lately, is younger, etc etc.

This sport can be great value if you know how to pick fights well. I don't and wont try to say I do know but I feel people that follow this sport and know fightting, etc and can take the emotional fandom out of betting can profit betting ufc. Is this a dumb thought? I just feel ufc betting is much better than say NFL/ other sharp sports where lines are almost always really good.

Props to Holland for having his head straight for this fight. Based on interviews I saw, I didn't think that would be the case.

Sounds like he'll be doing some wrestling training with Cormier at AKA. That's good news but I think he needs more help than DC can offer. Doesn't look like it will happen, but I'd like to see him switch camps so he can focus much more on takedown defense and getting back to his feet.

Hopefully he gets a full camp for his next fight. He's a great talent but I'm very skeptical that he will put in all the work necessary to take his game to the next level.

missed the event but don't care perfect night.

good tip on Dern dude, happy I tailed you.

I ended up skipping the event too, bad timezone for Aus 1-5am etc

Onto the next!

How on earth was Dern ever the underdog? She has a truly disgusting ground game and ever improving striking, a great chin, a much better record, she's more active, younger and Nunes has just recovered from having a baby. Women's MMA continues to have some absurd lines.

I loved the timing of this card, fights finishing at 11pm is perfect and it was nice to not be rooting for finishes simply so I can go to sleep soon. I doubt they will but I hope they do more early fights.

The Yussuf vs Allen fight was utterly insane. I also missed the event but still managed to make some $ on some bets.